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The azaleas are fully blossomed, the birds are perfectly tuned, and the players have officially made their way down Magnolia Lane. The 86th edition of the Masters awaits them as the year’s first major championship is finally upon us.
91 men will attempt to etch their name into golf’s history book as an injured Hideki Matsuyama (+6000) looks to become the first successful defender since Tiger Woods (+8000) in 2002. No Masters preview would be complete without mention of the 15-time major winner and 5-time Masters champion as his possible return to competition has captured the full attention of the broader sports world.
Between flight trackers and trusted expert medical opinions from the internet, Woods’ simplest movement once again came with a cascade of notice. Unable to play since the one-off 2020 November version of this very tournament, just striking the first tee-shot will be a feat worth celebrating given the trials and tribulations of the past year.
While the public is making their donation to the golf gods, the 46-year-old’s celebrated appearance brings zero betting interest on our end. That is not to say the inclusion of Woods in the field is not a welcomed sight, a sentiment many of the world’s best would agree with.
As the spotlight has swiftly moved off the likes of world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler (+1600), Masters-less Rory McIlroy (+1800), and golden child Collin Morikawa (+1800). The tournament favorite at PointsBet Sportsbook, Jon Rahm (+1100), also flies under the radar and even more so when considering his last four trips to Augusta have each produced a top-10 finish.
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Doing without those mentioned above, our initial quandary surfaces when discussing Justin Thomas (+1400), Dustin Johnson (+1600), Jordan Spieth (+2000), and Brooks Koepka (+2000). Thomas is the clear belle of the ball as the world No. 7 has been public about his displeasure towards not only his current title drought, but that of the major championship variety as well.
Five years removed from his victory at the 2017 PGA Championship, Thomas has roared out of the 2022 gates without victory. Top-5, top-10 in a slew of statistical categories ideal for Augusta National, many will point to Jim “Bones” Mackay as this week’s eventual difference maker. Yet to be convinced this relationship is a fruitful one, the internal pressure put on Thomas’ shoulders has reared its ugly head at the worst of times.
Three off the pace in last year’s Masters, it first appeared when Thomas chunked his third into Rae’s Creek and subsequently three-putted for a triple-bogey 8 on the par-5 13th. Signing for a third round 3-over 75, the American quickly fell out of contention and finished in a tie for 21st.
In a similar position, albeit one round later at the U.S. Open, Thomas turned at 2-under at Torrey Pines, threatening to post a number for those behind him to chase. When a quick hook off the face of his driver found the wrong side of white stakes on the par-4 10th, any chances of major No. 2 were immediately dashed.
Perhaps just contending should be recognized as many are given trophies for less these days, but the recent dry spell is no doubt worrisome when it comes to Thomas. Handed the sterling silver a shade over 500 days ago was Johnson who has since fallen off the peak of his second major championship triumph.
Missing the cut last season, he joined a long list of defenders to forgo weekend action in the year following their Masters title. Winless worldwide since the 2021 Saudi International, the 37-year-old has begun to sniff the first page of leaderboards again.
A course record tying 9-under 63 in the final round of The PLAYERS Championship preceded a semifinal run at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play. Spotting Scheffler a few early holes, Johnson battled back only to be undone by his putter late in their match.
Comfortable with the current state of his ball-striking, Johnson’s Masters results since 2015 read: T-6, T-4, T-10, T-2, WIN, MC. Difficult to ignore such quality, my one issue with the world No. 8 has nothing to do with him, but rather the number itself, as +1600 is too steep a price for a man who went off longer at both Torrey Pines and Riviera.
Potentially moving in that direction is Spieth whose final round at the Valero Texas Open marked his best tee-to-green effort since 2015. Signing for a bogey-free 5-under 67, the three-time major champion said, “I just have to address putting, that’s it. Everything else is – I mean, I had no – I mean, I missed nine putts inside of six feet this week. That’s really, really bad. So, I’ve got to figure out a stroke feel that gets me comfortable everywhere. It wasn’t just – I missed a lot of mid rangers, too. It was the worst I’ve ever putted in a professional event.”
Three-putting from three-feet and putting his ball off the green, Spieth lost north of seven-strokes with the putter in hand at TPC San Antonio. While conventional wisdom suggests a bounce back is in store, this marked the second consecutive week the flat stick was a disappointment.
An adequate putting display away from donning his second green jacket, Spieth ranked 53rd in SG: Putting while leading the field in SG: Tee-to-Green in last year’s Masters. Finishing in a tie for third, this marked the 28-year-old’s fifth podium finish in eight attempts.
A debut runner-up, a near record-setting victory, a second nine collapse, and a stray tree branch on the 72nd hole can sum up his four previous medal performances. Always worthy of consideration in April, I am incapable of overlooking Spieth’s putting woes and have instead opted for Koepka at the same figure.
Prefacing this selection by stating I am no part of the “auto-bet” crowd – and truth be told I find them quite vexing – Koepka’s pedigree on golf’s biggest stage is impossible to ignore. Participating in 20 major championships since 2016, the Floridian has entered the final round within four-strokes of the lead on 10 occurrences.
Able to convert four of those opportunities into victories, Koepka’s recent lack of Sunday heroics can be traced to its origins at the 2019 Masters. One of many to find Rae’s Creek on the par-3 12th, Koepka’s fall to Woods was not without one last charge. An eagle-3 on the next hole pushed his name back into the conversation before near-misses on Nos. 15, 17, and 18.
Falling one-stroke shy, Koepka has since figuratively limped to a PGA Championship, denounced his friendship with Johnson, battled injuries and questionable fashion choices, and fallen short to Gary Woodland (+10000) and Phil Mickelson.
The healthiest we have seen the 31-year-old in quite some time, Koepka’s tee-to-green play the last two months has showcased this with performances of +5.92, +5.64, and +5.32 SG: Tee-to-Green. Making his hay on the par-4s in these tournaments, it is those holes which Masters champions separate themselves as four out of the last six winners have led the field in SG: Par-4 – Matsuyama ranked second while Woods ranked seventh.
Historically proficient on the par-5s, a prerequisite at Augusta National, Koepka’s around-the-green prowess or lack thereof has the highest potential to be the thorn in our side. It is this area of the game I am most willing to roll the dice, especially with Koepka who has shown the propensity to peak in the major championship setting.
Typing through my internal dilemma is not to say others are not on my mind as they surely are. Scheffler and Cameron Smith (+1500) should only be wagered on if said wager occurred months ago while good friends Patrick Cantlay (+2000) and Xander Schauffele (+2500) bring a feeling of indifference.
Slowly, but surely making our bed since last summer, the inclusion of three future selections makes for an unorthodox week. Invested in Louis Oosthuizen (+8000), Harris English (+9000), and Shane Lowry (+9000), the mid-range portion on the odds board we so heavily consume is left without a taste much like the well-known peace ice cream sandwich.
If you are lucky enough to be without an English ticket in your back pocket, there are players who have presentable cases beginning with Sam Burns (+5000). Set to make his Masters debut, the lack of experience may turn some off, but as we have seen time and time again, this young crop is flattening the learning curve.
Both Will Zalatoris (+4000) and Sungjae Im (+7000) finished runner-up in their tournament debuts and given Burns’ current form, a similar result would be unsurprising. If longing for possible selections with a bit more seasoning, Daniel Berger (+5000) – little pun intended – Webb Simpson (+8000), Tony Finau (+8000) and Si Woo Kim (+10000) look fair at current prices.
Each batting from the right side of the plate, the success of Mickelson, Bubba Watson (+6600), Mike Weir (+100000), and Anna Davis brings left-handers to mind. Four finished inside the top-26 in last year’s tournament with Brian Harman (+12500) and Robert MacIntyre (+15000) leading the way in a tie for 12th.
After bogeys on Nos. 16 and 17, MacIntyre’s birdie on the 72nd hole secured his invitation to this year’s Masters. Knowing exactly what his final stroke meant, the Scotsman said, “First time this year and obviously put up a decent fight, but once you come here, you don’t want to miss another one. I’m not missing next year for anything...I feel like my game suits this golf course and the way I play golf suits the way this golf course wants you to play golf.”
Possibly a year or four too early on the 25-year-old, MacIntyre has held his own in major championships up to this point in his career connecting on 7-of-7 weekend appearances. Ranking 10th in SG: Around-the-Green and 11th in SG: Putting in 2021, a MacIntyre victory would certainly come as a shock to the golf world.
Just as Danny Willett (+20000) and Charl Schwartzel (+30000) did with their victories, both of which came in their second stroll around Augusta National. In fact, it is the sophomore appearance most abundant for first-time winners as it has produced 3-of-9 such victors since 2011.
Needing his iron play to cooperate, MacIntyre may have hinted at an upturn with his scoring clubs as he posted +1.64 and +0.99 SG: Approach the first two days in San Antonio. Hardly his strong suit, this followed a similar showing at Riviera where he posted +3.48 SG: Approach.
Falling in the shadows of his Scott Fawcett contemporary in his debut, MacIntyre possesses an outside chance to add to the accomplishments of left-handers at Augusta National.
Outright Selections:
Brooks Koepka +2000 (1.65 units) at PointsBet
Robert MacIntyre +15000 (0.22 units) at PointsBet
Future Selections:
Louis Oosthuizen +8000 (0.41 units)
Shane Lowry +9000 (0.37 units)
Harris English +9000 (0.37 units) (Writer’s Note: English is a WD and loss has been added to yearly total; yikes)
Outrights YTD: +65.76 units, +186.06%
Total YTD: +43.77 units, +47.52%
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