We now have a definitive answer about who was the best regular season team in Big Ten women’s basketball this season.
Led by JuJu Watkins’ 30 points, USC went to Pauley Pavilion Saturday night and dominated UCLA in a way that was not reflected in the 80-67 final score. The win meant a sweep of the crosstown rival, the Big Ten regular season title and virtual locked-in status as a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
For the second straight season, Lindsay Gottlieb’s team is playing its best ball at the best time. Last year, the Trojans turned it on in the Pac-12 tournament, winning the final iteration of that event as we knew it and taking major momentum into The Big Dance. Now, USC is looking for a second consecutive conference tournament title and a whole lot more.
USC is not the only team looking to make a statement in Indianapolis. Here is a rundown of each projected NCAA Tournament team as squads prepare for their final audition at the TIAA Big Ten Women’s Basketball Tournament:
No. 2 USC Trojans
Projected NCAA Tournament seed: 1
Big Ten tournament: No. 1 seed, First and Second-Round Bye
Here is JuJu Watkins’ average stat line in two games against UCLA: 34 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists, 5.5 blocks, 58.8% on 3-pointers. Watkins left no doubt about who should be the Big Ten Player of the Year by outplaying Lauren Betts in both matchups. The next question is whether it is enough to put her on top in the race for the national POY awards.
No. 4 UCLA Bruins
Projected seed: 1
Big Ten tournament: No. 2 seed, First and Second-Round Bye
It is interesting to evaluate UCLA right now, because it has only lost twice this season and only to one team – a team that happens to be a 1-seed. It is surely frustrating to lose by double-digits twice to your in-city rival, but that does not wipe away the Bruins’ double-digit victories over elite teams in South Carolina and Ohio State. UCLA could easily have another chance at revenge in Indianapolis.
No. 13 Ohio State Buckeyes
Projected NCAA Tournament seed: 4
Big Ten tournament: No. 3 seed, First and Second-Round Bye
The Buckeyes remain on the 4-seed line for now because losing by three in overtime at Maryland is not a bad loss. That being said, Ohio State has lost its last four games away from Columbus and has UCLA, Michigan State, Illinois and Iowa – all good or great teams – on their side of the bracket.
No. 15 Maryland Terrapins
Projected NCAA Tournament seed: 5
Big Ten tournament: No. 4 seed, First and Second-Round Bye
That thrilling win in the finale against the Buckeyes is enough to flip Maryland back over Michigan State onto the 5-seed line. The Terps have won six of their last seven games, and five of those victories have come against no-doubter NCAA Tournament teams. A potential semifinal matchup with the Trojans looms – if Maryland can win its first tournament game.
No. 24 Michigan State Spartans
Projected NCAA Tournament seed: 6
Big Ten tournament: No. 6 seed, First-Round Bye
In contrast to Maryland, Michigan State has sputtered a little down the stretch. Context is needed for its 4-5 finish to the season – three of the losses came to UCLA, USC and Ohio State, the other two came to tournament-worthy teams in Michigan and Oregon and none were by more than 11 points. Still, the Spartans would have liked more momentum, along with that double-bye, entering the Big Ten tournament.
Michigan Wolverines
Projected NCAA Tournament seed: 6
Big Ten tournament: No. 5 seed, First-Round Bye
The Wolverines will face the winner of the Minnesota vs. Washington first-round matchup. The good news is that means Michigan knows to prepare for an offense-focused opponent. The bad news is that potent offenses are capable of winning any given game. If the Wolverines win that game, they will get a second crack at a Maryland squad that beat Michigan a few weeks ago.
Iowa Hawkeyes
Projected NCAA Tournament seed: 7
Big Ten tournament: No. 11 seed, vs. Wisconsin Wed. (Peacock)
Outside of two close losses to Ohio State and UCLA, it has been smooth sailing for Iowa since late January. With convincing road wins at Washington, Minnesota, Nebraska and Michigan in that stretch, the Hawkeyes have proven they can win anywhere. If any double-digit seed is going to make a surprise run in Indianapolis, it is this group.
Illinois Fighting Illini
Projected NCAA Tournament seed: 8
Big Ten tournament: No. 7 seed, First-Round Bye
The schedule hit Illinois’ eight-game win streak like a truck, and now the Illini enter the postseason coming off three straight losses to UCLA, USC and Michigan. The nine-point home loss to the Wolverines in the finale is the most damaging of the three; instead of facing Maryland in a potential quarterfinal game, Illinois would get an angry UCLA squad.
Indiana Hoosiers
Projected NCAA Tournament seed: 9
Big Ten tournament: No. 9 seed, First-Round Bye, vs. Oregon Thu.
After a 10-point over Ohio State on Feb. 20th, the Hoosiers looked like they could make a similar late-season push to Iowa. Instead, they dropped games to Michigan State and Maryland before concluding with a blowout of hapless Purdue. Still, the Hoosiers get a bye and a matchup with an inconsistent Oregon team in their home state.
Oregon Ducks
Projected NCAA Tournament seed: 10
Big Ten tournament: No. 8 seed, First-Round Bye, vs. Indiana Thu.
Wins over Washington and at Minnesota cloud the fact that Oregon hasn’t beaten a team ranked top-35 in NET since January. If the Ducks can get past Indiana and its homecourt advantage, they will have a date with USC – which beat Oregon by 13 in Eugene earlier this season.
Washington Huskies
Projected NCAA Tournament seed: 10
Big Ten tournament: No. 12 seed, vs. Minnesota Wed. (Peacock)
Washington maintains the edge over Nebraska by virtue of a 21-point win in Lincoln a little over a week ago and three consecutive wins over tournament teams to close the season. One of those wins came at Minnesota, so the Huskies should feel confident in their first-round matchup.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Projected NCAA Tournament seed: 11
Big Ten tournament: No. 10 seed, vs. Rutgers Wed. (Peacock)
The Cornhuskers got the job done by crushing Northwestern in Evanston. That was the expected result, but it was necessary to avoid a first-round matchup against a tournament team like Minnesota or Washington. Nebraska should cruise past Rutgers, but can it make any noise beyond that?
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Projected NCAA Tournament seed: 11 (First Four)
Big Ten tournament: No. 13 seed, vs. Washington Wed. (Peacock)
The Golden Gophers have floundered against improved competition down the stretch, dropping four of their last five and seven of their last nine. Less than a week ago, they lost by double-digits at home to this Washington team. Minnesota will have to dig deep to turn it around.
