When odds are as tight as they are in the Monster Energy Supercross series, bettors seek any indicator they can find. After last week’s mostly disappointing run in Birmingham, Alabama, Cooper Webb’s odds from the official oddsmaker, NXTBets.com, shifted from +130 to +150 for the outright win in Round 11 at Lumen Field in Seattle, Washington. That represents a respectable payout, but the gap between Webb and Chase Sexton closed from 50 points to 30.
This is Webb’s highest line since he opened at +162 in Arlington, Texas.
Another indicator of the relative strength projected by NXTBets.com is the head-to-head matchup between the two favorites. On one hand, it’s a tossup since both show minus odds, but Webb’s -124 to Sexton’s -107 is significant in how the traders view these riders’ relative strength.
They are unwilling to go all-in on Sexton despite his Triple Crown format win in Birmingham. Sexton may believe this is the beginning of a second-half surge, but his odds remain unchanged at +180. Sexton has shown that line for the past three weeks after he showed steady improvement from Detroit (+154 for the outright win), to Arlington (+144), and Daytona (+140). Even if Sexton does not win this week, his odds will likely shorten if he finishes on the podium. Sexton’s podium odds this week are -228.
Riding with a separated AC in his shoulder, Ken Roczen’s shot at the championship is diminishing, but he remains NXTBets.com’s third-favored rider. However, his odds are beginning to stretch from +400 in Birmingham to +488 in Seattle.
SEATTLE LONGSHOTS
Projecting a rider’s strength based on overall results in a Triple Crown format race can be difficult. When a racer is consistent in his weekend performance, however, it becomes easier, and Justin Cooper’s (+1772) 6-7-6 last week for a sixth-place overall indicates a modest struggle. That snapped a five-race streak of top-five finishes. He was coming off his first podium of the season and, as a result, had his podium odds lowered to +285. He is even lower still this week with a line of +270 to stand on the podium for the second time this season. With respect, Cooper needs to show he can finish races strong before he’s a good value under 3/1.
Malcolm Stewart (+1984) showed moxie in Birmingham. Riding in severe pain after suffering a hip injury in qualification, he swept the podium in the three features and scored his second podium of the season. His first trip to the box was a victory in Tampa before he spent the next four weeks off the box. Bettors who believe he will sustain his momentum may wish to place a modest wager for him to podium with odds of +287.
Stewart and Aaron Plessinger (+1573) were both surprise podium finishers in Birmingham, and they are featured in another head-to-head matchup by NXTBets.com. Plessinger has the slight advantage with a -122 to Stewart’s -109, but based on their average finish in the season, the advantage goes to Stewart with a 6.4 to Plessinger’s 9.7.
Raw Event Winner Odds
Cooper Webb, +150
Chase Sexton, +180
Ken Roczen, +488
Aaron Plessinger, +1573
Justin Cooper, +1772
Malcolm Stewart, +1984
Jason Anderson, +2005
Justin Barcia, +2295
Dylan Ferrandis, +6599
Justin Hill, +14214
Hunter Schlosser, +14214
Shane McElrath, +14214
Christian Craig, +14214
Joey Savatgy, +15650
Colt Nichols, +15650
Mitchell Oldenburg, +15650
Mitchell Harrison, +15650
Jared Lesher, +17086
Benny Bloss, +17086
Kyle Chisholm, +17086
Jerry Robin, +17086
Freddie Noren, +17086
Justin Rodbell, +17086
Justin Starling, +17086
Podium Odds
Cooper Webb, -270
Chase Sexton, -228
Ken Roczen, +105
Aaron Plessinger, +239
Justin Cooper, +270
Malcolm Stewart, +287
Jason Anderson, +296
Justin Barcia, +327
Dylan Ferrandis, +557
Justin Hill, +953
Christian Craig, +1148
Joey Savatgy, +1355
Shane McElrath, +1523
Mitchell Oldenburg, +1842
Colt Nichols, +2043
Hunter Schlosser, +2367
Benny Bloss, +2918
Kyle Chisholm, +3248
Jerry Robin, +3722
Mitchell Harrison, +4214
Grant Harlan, +5228
Anthony Rodriguez, +5228
Tristan Lane, +5810
Jeremy Hand, +6016
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