The wait is finally over for Manchester City! They completed the treble. Not only did they win the 2022-23 Premier League title and the FA Cup, but they also defeated Inter Milan to win the Champions League. It was a sweet season for Pep Guardiola and company. Now they head into the new campaign with the bulk of their team intact and their eyes on winning their fourth Premier League title in a row and their sixth in seven seasons.
If you’ve read my preseason betting previews on Sheffield United and Luton Town, thank you! If not, you can read them by clicking on each team’s name. For those unfamiliar with this summer series, I plan to give betting previews of the league newcomers and the biggest names in the Premier League. In each article, I will try and have actionable betting information.
Will Manchester City Repeat as Champions?
Listen, Manchester City have won the Premier League three years in a row. They are -140 to repeat as Premier League champions, and honestly, if you back them to win the league, I don’t blame you. I prefer to back them later in the season than sit on a ticket for them to win with a minus sign in front of it for the next eight months. If memory serves me correctly, they were as high as +235 to win the Premier League at the halfway point of the season last year. They went on a massive run and chased down Arsenal to win the league. For those who follow me on Twitter, I suggest a bet of City to win the double (Premier League and Champions League) for a nice return.
But yes, I think Manchester City will win the league again this season. Last season they finished with the highest goal differential, 15 more than second place. Advanced analytics had them as a worthy champion, finishing with the highest xGD, nearly 15 goals higher than the second team.
City scored 94 goals and only conceded 33. They led the league in xG and xGA. They played well both home and away. They were one of the three teams who averaged more than 1.5 ppg away. Interestingly enough, they only had a +13% home-field advantage. That was mainly because of how well they played on the road.
City also have Erling Haaland and Kevin De Bruyne. The pair was dynamic. Haaland led the Premier League with 36 goals, and De Bruyne led the league with 16 assists. Even outside of the two, they are loaded with talent all over the pitch, and their team is deep.
As it stands now, they are only losing Ilkay Gundogan this summer. They are poised to win another Premier League title. Personally, I’d prefer to wait on betting them to win the league should the price drop later in the season, but if you’re so inclined, bet them to win at -140.
Player to Watch
Julian Alvarez – Center-Forward
I don’t want to spend too much time discussing how great Haaland is. He will probably win the Ballon d’Or this season or before he retires. Let’s talk about Alvarez, for all intents and purposes, Haaland’s backup. The 23-year-old had a season to remember. He was a contributor on a club team that won the Treble, and he was a crucial member of the Argentina team that won the World Cup. The question is, what’s next for him?
Despite the transfer rumors, Alvarez has confirmed that he will stay at City for at least one more season. This is huge for us sports bettors. Knowing Guardiola and how rigorous the City schedule gets, it’s important to pay attention to when they have double match weeks or games that bracket away domestic trips with away Champions League trips. Generally, Guardiola likes to give rest to some of the senior players, including De Bruyne and Haaland. When he does this, he loves to insert Alvarez in as the striker or as central midfield. What I love to do is predict these games and find a sportsbook that voids any player props for non-starters and bet Alvarez to take at least three shots prior to the starting XIs being announced. This has been one of the more profitable betting angles and should continue to be heading into the new season.
