Try to remain calm! The 2024-25 Premier League season starts this week! Let’s go!
With the season just days away, I have put pen to paper and continued my Premier League preseason betting previews. If you missed last week’s preview on Chelsea, click HERE to view it now.
Liverpool Betting Preview
Can Liverpool (+650) Win the League?
After taking a stab at Liverpool to win the league at +550 early in the season last year, my heart broke into a million pieces when they squandered their lead and eventually failed to win the title.
Pressure either combusts and leaves ruins, or it creates diamonds. The pressure of having the dream send-off for manager Jurgen Klopp turned out to be too much for the team, and ultimately, they failed to win the league, the FA Cup, and Europa. The quad was on the table, but they were eventually left with just one trophy (EFL Cup).
Many called the season a choke job or an utter failure after having the lead late in the season and being favorites to win Europa. I can’t say that I disagree. However, I had Liverpool finishing outside the top four in my preseason rankings.
The difference between their third-place finish and a possible title came down to their defensive performance away from home. At Anfield, they had the best record (15-3-1) and earned the most points (48) out of any of their foes.
They conceded 1.26 goals per match away from home, higher than Manchester City (0.95) and Arsenal (0.68). They also trailed both with 34 points away from home.
There’s no secret that Anfield is a tough place to play. However, if they want to repeat the feeling of winning the 2019 Premier League, they must clean up defensively and play better away from home.
Who will be this team without having Klopp as their manager for the first time in nine years?
Tactically, I’d expect much of the same. With slight differences, we should see many similarities between how they played last season and how Arne Slot will have them play this season.
At +650, I don’t hate the price on Liverpool to win. I’m personally not betting on it, but it would make a lot of sense to take a stab at this price. Klopp is gone, but the core of this team is the same.
Cody Gakpo and Darwin Nunez have another year of Premier League experience under their belts. They also had great international tournaments over the offseason. Expect both to make a massive impact.
I’ll add that under Slot, Liverpool may improve their defensive numbers. The difference is how Slot likes to maintain a back four, and Klopp likes to bring a defender higher on the pitches, often leading to bigger gaps when the opposition counters.
If I weren’t planting my flag on Arsenal this season, I would be all over the value of Liverpool winning the league.
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Players to Watch
Arne Slot
Yes, this section is supposed to be players to watch, and I added a manager. It’s okay. Let me explain.
The most important person on this team will be Slot.
I touched on how Liverpool’s defensive woes kept them from winning the title. It’s interesting to note that there were defensive improvements when Slot took over at Feyenoord. Each year under Slot, Feyenoord conceded fewer goals. In 2021, they conceded 1.00 goals per game, dropping to 0.88 the following year and 0.76 last year in his final season with the club.
Slot is no stranger to success. Feyenoord won the Eredivisie in his second season in charge. They also finished no worse than third, which happened in his first season at the helm.
Darwin Nunez
Year three for Nunez sets up for him to take a massive leap. In his first season in the Premier League, he started 19 matches and scored nine goals. Last season, he started 22 of the 36 matches and scored 11 times. He averaged 4.85 shots per 90 minutes with a crazy high of 0.75 npxG.
It’s rumored that Luis Diaz has agreed to personal terms with Manchester City. Should Diaz leave, Nunez and Gakpo will dramatically increase their playing time.
If Nunez were to be the penalty taker, I’d quickly bet on him to win the Golden Boot. However, as long as Mohamed Salah is on this team and takes responsibility from the spot, I cannot back Nunez to score more goals than Erling Haaland.
Favorite Liverpool Bet
Liverpool to finish top 4 (-200) | Liverpool to win the Premier League (+650)
I am NOT taking either of these bets. I don’t feel having a bet on every team heading into the season is necessary. However, if you’re a Liverpool supporter and are dying to place a bet, both of these are solid value and should have legs come late in the season.