As we inch closer to the start of the Premier League season, we continue our summer betting previews. So far, we have previews of Luton Town, Sheffield United, and Manchester City. If you’d like to read each preview, click on the team’s name, and you will be navigated to the article. This week we tackle the betting preview of the newly promoted Burnley.
Who is Burnley?
Burnley Football Club, established in 1882, are no strangers to playing in England’s top flight. They were one of the first professional clubs in England and paved the way for players to receive payment for playing football. Throughout their English Football tenure, they have won the top flight twice. Once in 1920-1921 and the second in 1959-60.
The Clarets call Turf Moor home and are managed by former Manchester City defender Vincent Kompany. Having parted ways with manager Sean Dyche a season and a half ago and appointing Kompany at the start of last season, Burnley were always focused on the mission. Their goal was to return to the Premier League and continue to build a championship football club.
After losing players and changing tactics, not even Kompany could have imagined that the Clarets would return to England’s top flight after just one season, let alone win the Championship division last season.
Burnley have a strong history of winning football. However, since the 60s, they haven’t seen nearly as much success. For them, their first mission is to stay up. With Kompany at the helm, I like their chances.
To Stay Up or Not to Stay Up?
Burnley getting relegated after six seasons in the Premier League and battling back the following season shouldn’t shock most. However, three managers over a year and the mass exodus of top talent leaving made their bid for promotion seem impossible.
Kompany deserves much credit for what he has done for this club. Under Dyche, Burnley sat behind the ball, absorbed pressure, and took calculated risks when attacking. When Kompany took over, he changed their formation (4-2-3-1) and philosophy. Tactically they play possession-based football, like that of Manchester City.
Kompany also has a hands-on approach to scouting and recruiting. This allows him to almost hand-select the players for his team. Players that fit tactically in the system he is running. This also gives his system a sense of fluidity, enabling them to change tactically based on the opponent.
Burnley were such a dominant force in the Championship last season. They won the league with 101 points, the most since Leicester City in 2013-14. They led the league with 87 goals, but their dominance came on the defensive end. The Clarets only conceded 35 goals and kept 21 clean sheets. What’s most impressive about those numbers is that they only conceded 35 goals on an xGA of 38.2.
The Clarets are expected to lose top goal scorer Nathan Tella due to his loan expiring, but only a few others transferring away. They have been active in the transfer window, but have their eyes on their main priority, 20-year-old keeper James Trafford. The 6’6 U21 English keeper has all the making of a future star, and Burnley are willing to pay the price to find out.
From a betting perspective, there isn’t much value in betting on Burnley in the futures market. I don’t think they get relegated, so I’m not betting -285 on them getting relegated. I’m also not betting on them at -700 to avoid relegation. That would only leave a few possibilities.
I considered sprinkling +500 on a top-half finish. The only gripe I have with their numbers from last season is the 68 xG with 87 goals. Numbers suggest regression, which I don’t want any part of while they move up into the Premier League. More importantly, their number one objective this season will be securing safety. From there, they buy talent and grow their squad into something competitive.
Players to Watch
Nathan Tella – Right Winger
Tella and his 17 Championship goals for Burnley make him one of the more important players to monitor this offseason. The breakout season for the 23-year-old not only helped him make a name for himself but also upped the price teams will have to pay should they want to secure him from Southampton. Tella’s loan from Southampton having expired causes concerns for the Clarets attack. They may be unwilling to pay Southampton for his services, leaving them with a massive hole for the upcoming season.
Wout Weghorst – Center-Forward
ENSCHEDE, NETHERLANDS - JUNE 18: Wout Weghorst of the Netherlands celebrates after scoring a disallowed offside goal during the Netherlands v Italy - UEFA Nations League 2022/23 Third-place match between Netherlands and Italy at the FC Twente Stadion on June 18, 2023 in Enschede, Netherlands (Photo by Rene Nijhuis/BSR Agency/Getty Images)
Getty Images
Weghorst’s time at Manchester United might not have seen as many goals as he’d like, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t a market for him. Weghorst’s loan to United ended, and he’s back with Burnley for now. Kompany must decide if Weghorst will fit into their plans or if they should cash in on his €12.00m market value.
With Everton expressing interest in the 30-year-old striker, he’s become a name to monitor this offseason. Should he stay on at Burnley, he should see regular minutes. The attack will likely struggle in the first season, but against the oft-leaky clubs, he could see his name on the score sheet for a fairly nice price.
