Liverpool are 12 points clear atop the Premier League table with nine games to go and it’s now a matter of when, not if, they win the title.
So when can Arne Slot’s side actually seal the deal?
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The Reds are the champions elect and unless there’s an incredible collapse coinciding with nine wins from nine for Arsenal to finish the season, they will be lifting the Premier League trophy at Anfield on the final day of the season after their game against Crystal Palace on May 25.
It would be just Liverpool’s second Premier League title but here’s the rub: The Reds would tie heated rivals Manchester United by winning the 20th top-flight title in their history.
Below are all the answers to when Liverpool can win the Premier League title, the points they need and when they’re likely to win it.
When is the earliest Liverpool can win the Premier League title?
In its simplest form Liverpool can’t win the title until April, because they don’t play another Premier League game until then as we’ve hit the international break.
We can easily answer this when it comes to Arsenal as a title threat. As Arsenal have dropped more points, Liverpool’s earliest clinch date has technically become more complicated than a Liverpool winning streak coinciding with a Arsenal losing run.
Liverpool have 70 points. Arsenal currently max out at 85 points, while Nottingham Forest can reach 81. Newcastle can get to 77, Chelsea can get to 76, and Manchester City can reach 75.
If Arsenal were to lose all of their games while Liverpool keep winning all of theirs, the Gunners could slip to a max total of 76 by the end of their April 12 home match versus Brentford. The Reds would have 76 points by winning their next two games, and would have a goal differential mountain for Arsenal to climb. Liverpool would then put Arsenal in its rear view mirror for good with one further point, which could next come April 13 at home to West Ham.
This scenario would also assume that Nottingham Forest, Chelsea, Manchester City, Brighton, and Aston Villa drop points. With Arsenal losing to Chelsea in this scenario, the Blues, Forest, or another side could have the second-highest max points by April 13.
How many points do Liverpool need to win the Premier League title?
If Liverpool reach 86 points they will seal the title. With nine games to go Arsenal can only reach a maximum of 85 points if they win all of their remaining games.
How many points can Liverpool get this season?
If Liverpool win all of their remaining nine games they will finish the season on 97 points. That would be their second-highest points tally in their Premier League history, as they racked up 98 points in 2019-20 — the only other occasion they’ve won the Premier League title. They also had 97 points in the 2018-19 season when they remarkably finished second behind Manchester City.
What is a more likely scenario for when Liverpool will win the Premier League?
If Liverpool continue their rate of 2.41 points per game for the rest of the season, they will reach 87 points after their 36th match of the season. That means they could seal the title against Arsenal at Anfield on May 10, as a win in that game for Liverpool would lower Arsenal’s possible maximum points tally (assuming they win all of their other games before that game) down to 84 points.
