Manchester City’s terrible slide down the Premier League table — terrible, of course, on a relative scale — has been anything but predictable, even as hindsight shows off its incredible record of eye tests.
Yes, City is getting older and there are now years and years worth of parked-bus video for would-be Pep-stymiers to analyze prior to match day with the champs, but this sort of results regression is wild.
[ MORE: Pep Guardiola reacts to draw with Everton | Match recap ]
Especially when it comes to their record-collecting center forward, Erling Haaland.
So what’s gone wrong? Let’s try to figure this out together, as it seems that City may have to use wealth, get back to health, and just get their superstar striker finishing at his average rate.
Have City let the wrong ones out?
It would’ve been a tremendous bit of bravery for Pep Guardiola to sell one of his club legends in order to get playing time for some of the ex-City players now thriving elsewhere.
In fact, there’s a good argument to be made that some of those City heroes deserve to stay on until they’ve clearly dropped off a proverbial cliff.
We’re not talking strictly hindsight moves like, “It would be nice if Kalvin Phillips were still here” when the current Ipswich Town loanee was clearly out of confidence and behind a yet-to-be-injured Rodri as well as Mateo Kovacic and Rico Lewis on the depth chart.
This summer, City sold Julian Alvarez to La Liga-leading Atletico Madrid, Liam Delap to Ipswich, and Taylor Harwood-Bellis to Southampon in a window that saw them ring up more a nine-figure profit in the market. Cole Palmer left the previous season and his rise has been well-documented in this space and others.
Alvarez wanted to be a No. 1 and that was not going to happen over Erling Haaland. Perhaps the same was true of Delap but City have so many games that surely playing time could’ve been found for the current Tractor Boy.
What’s wrong with Erling Haaland?
Yes, it truly was this season when Haaland scored 10 goals in the first five fixtures of the Premier League campaign, threatening to torch his own single-season goals record.
He’s scored just thrice in the next 13 games, adding a lone assist as Mohamed Salah has drove past him for the Premier League goals lead this season.
Obviously, Saturday’s saved penalty and offside putback of the rebound underlines his misery, but what do the other numbers say about the titanic Norwegian forward?
Well, start here — he’s been unlucky. Haaland ranks in the PL elite in many categories that favor goals. His 13 goals come on 14.04 xG and 15.12 xGOT (expected goals on target). He’s put 39 of his 73 shot attempts on target.
And as far as PL play he is:
- first in expected goals (0.9 above Salah)
- second in big chances missed (1 behind Ollie Watkins and four above Salah)
- first in non-penalty goals
- first in shots on target (10 more than Salah)
tSo, what’s wrong with Haaland? He’s being saved by keepers, mostly.
Where else is Man City going wrong?
City have annually produced the most goals and most expected goals in the league under Pep Guardiola. What made them killers as Guardiola’s reign evolved was the very few chances they conceded to opponents.
- 2024-25: 6th in goals, 5th in xG, 14th in goals against, 12th in xGA
- 2023-24: 1st in goals, 2nd in xG, 2nd in goals against, 2nd in xGA
- 2022-23: 1st in goals, 1st in xG, tied 1st in goals against, 1st in xGA
- 2021-22: 1st in goals, 1st in xG, tied 1st in goals against, 1st in xGA
- 2020-21: 1st in goals, 1st in xG, 1st in goals against, 1st in xGA
- 2019-20*: 1st in goals, 1st in xG, 2nd in goals against, 1st in xGA
- 2018-19: 1st in goals, 1st in xG, 2nd in goals against, 1st in xGA
- 2017-18: 1st in goals, 1st in xG, 1st in goals against, 1st in xGA
- 2016-17: 3rd in goals, 1st in xG, 4th in goals against, 2nd in xGA
It’s also not just about being the best, but how far and away they were from the competitors at times — considering that the 2019-20 season, a year they did not win the title, City’s xG and actual goals were 26 and 17 better than their nearest competitor.
This is perhaps the best dynasty in modern soccer dipping to merely pretty decent — and that’s a huge drop-off.
Is this really just about Rodri, and fixable in January?
Not entirely and maybe.
City may have been able to navigate the Rodri injury a bit better had it not been for the serious amount of defenders who went missing before, around, and after the Ballon d’Or winner went down with ACL and meniscus injuries.
City were 3-0-0 before Rodri played his first minutes of the Premier League season, and he only got 66 minutes onto his stat sheet before his injuries on Sept. 22.
Since then amongst City center backs, Nathan Ake has missed all but five games, John Stones has been out of six, Ruben Dias has missed five, and Manuel Akanji’s missed two.
That’s piled up minutes without much rest for Josko Gvardiol, 34-year-old Kyle Walker, and even Rico Lewis. HIs 1220 minutes trail only Haaland, Gvardiol, and Bernardo Silva in PL play.
So back to this maybe being fixable — few expects the center back ailments to linger at the Etihad Stadium. Even as the title hopes themselves are all but dead, Guardiola’s men could be one big January transfer away from a pretty-straightforward top-four run.
It’s unlikely that there’s a like-for-like Rodri out there, but there are dozens who can ably provide the defensive part of his game. And while City may still face troubling punishments that might deter players from making a move, they can also insert relegation clauses into their deals.
Martin Zubimendi of Real Sociedad is often mentioned as the right profile for City even if Rodri was healthy. Could Frenkie de Jong, not an automatic starter under Hansi Flick, be pried away from old pals Barcelona?
