Seven matches do not make a season, but it’s a large enough sample size to glean certain truths about the fate of a Premier League team.
Are Liverpool this good? Are Manchester City vulnerable? Is Manchester United this meh?
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It’s easy to find consensus as to who’s had the best and worst starts to the Premier League season, and we’ll certainly do that here, but whose starts are more likely to have staying power — both good and bad? That’s where statistics can help back up or defy the eye test.
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Whose numbers back-up their early season status as relegation candidates? And what stats might say a surprise European contender is real or faking it?
Here’s at least one significant note or stat for all 20 Premier League teams. You be the judge if the figure matters as much as implied by this post.
The new boys
Let’s not call time on the seasons of Ipswich Town, Leicester City, and Southampton yet, okay? Not one of them are thriving, but there’s tumult even amongst their results. Saints only have a point but are the best of the trio in expected goals and expected points. Leicester have gained the most points but are the Premier League’s second-leakiest defense... to Ipswich. The Tractor Boys’ four draws are a good sign for Kieran McKenna, but other statistics have them and the Foxes duking it out for worst in the division. There’s hope for all, but the time for judgment is not now.
Jury’s out
Wolves sit 20th on the Premier League table with one point and a minus-12 goal differential, but we’re going to point to their minus-7 shot attempts margin from open play as impressive given their status. The club lost Pedro Neto and Max Kilman in the transfer market and were always going to need to find their footing, but the PL schedule rewarded them with a brutal start of Arsenal, Chelsea, Forest, Newcastle, Arsenal, Liverpool, and Brentford. More than half the table would’ve emerged with a tough record from that. With Man City and Brighton next, we might need all of November to know if Gary O’Neil’s men are in real trouble.
Brighton are probably closer to the “big winners” section given their near-flawless transition from Roberto De Zerbi to young Fabian Hurzeler — maybe Tony Bloom has an impossibly green thumb. But there’s something off-putting about the home draws with Ipswich and Forest. That “something” was nearly undone by the comeback performance at home to Spurs. Let’s see where the Seagulls are next international break, with Newcastle, Wolves, Liverpool, and Man City due before that point.
Everton‘s number is 1.12. That’s not spectacular when it comes to an xGA figure for a single game, but it’s what the Toffees allowed Palace in their only game with a healthy Jarrad Branthwaite, who they did not sell this summer. None of the other matches saw Everton keep a figure below 1.79, and they thrice conceded 2.61 or more in a PL match.
For West Ham, we go with a higher figure: 30. The first half-hour of Premier League games have seen Julen Lopetegui’s men post a minus-6 in goal differential and a minus-7 in shot differential. Over the last hour, those figures change to plus-5 GD and plus-16 shots. Yes, of course, teams defend more with the lead, but there’s hope for West Ham if it can be more solid coming out of the blocks.
I was tempted to put Tottenham on the big losers list because of their ninth-place position, but also tempted to put them on big winners because their performances are a numbers nerd’s dream. Spurs are second in xG, third in xGA, first in touches inside the opponents’ box, and second in possession regained in the final third. Ange Postecoglou’s men are also second in possession and first in shots inside the 18. The loss to Newcastle, collapse at Brighton and draw with Leicester show that the side still has a ways to go when it comes to in-game management. Spurs should be right there with Liverpool, Arsenal, and City.
It’s been an up-and-down time for Bournemouth, who have been quite good but like their record signing need to convert performances into wins. The Cherries have scored just eight goals despite producing 13.80 xG this season. Only Manchester United and Southampton have done less clinical work with their chances.
Big winners through Week 7 of the 2024-25 Premier League season
Let’s start with the obvious — The three teams within one point at the top of the table.
Liverpool have a deserved place atop the leaderboard in that they’ve won most of their games, but Arne Slot righteously noted that their schedule has been forgiving — especially considering Manchester United is not the Manchester United of old. Liverpool have, in fact, played the easiest schedule of the season. Second easiest? The team to be noted first in the Big losers section of this post.
The Reds’ schedule is in stark contrast to that of Manchester City, which is likely reflected by their absence at the top of many advanced statistical categories they traditionally dominate during a Premier League season. City’s opponents boast a 64% pass success percentage, and the champions have not lost even with:
- One minute of Nathan Ake
- 59 minutes of Rodri (and no more coming any time soon)
- Under 200 minutes from Phil Foden and John Stones
Arsenal lead the Premier League in expected goals and shots inside the six-yard box, so clearly Mikel Arteta’s attack is a cutting one. And while the Gunners’ 28 corner kicks through seven games is an eyebrow-raiser, here’s a bigger one: Arsenal have a 12-4 goals edge (12.56-6.86 xG) despite being out-attempted 86-85 in open play.
Chelsea are a winner of this early season, for sure. Their fourth-place footing is familiar but also deserved as the Blues’ only loss is Week 1 versus Manchester City. Enzo Maresca’s possession and attack looks good. You could put the Blues in “Jury’s out,” however, because their next four Premier League matches are Liverpool, Newcastle, Manchester United, and Arsenal with Conference League and League Cup congestion to boot, we’re about to find out just how good they are after a bright start.
Nottingham Forest and Fulham have to be put amongst the winners, too. Nuno Espirito Santo’s Tricky Trees have thrived by coming at defenders in waves with a deep rotation of wingers and forwards, the perfect complement for their disciplined defense. As for Fulham, Emile Smith Rowe’s early returns have been wonderful, Antonee Robinson may be the best left back in the Premier League right now, and Joao Palhinha’s exit has been well-navigated by Marco Silva.
Big losers through Week 7 of the 2024-25 Premier League season
What if we told you that the first United named won’t be from Manchester? Newcastle United have masked poor if not brutal performances with positive results, as the mentality in Eddie Howe’s team is stronger throughout 90 minutes than it is in their football. Newcastle is seventh on the Premier League table despite conceding 40 more shots in open play than they’ve attempted, and the Magpies are bottom-third in the division in expected goals. They’ve also played the second-easiest schedule. Play Sandro Tonali more.
Manchester United is also in rough shape, though early signs from Manuel Ugarte do allow for more hope than opponents shins have under Lisandro Martinez’s studs. Man Utd are perfectly blah in most statistical categories — neither bad nor good if you ignore the expectations of their crest. The Red Devils are a walking draw, and actually have a negative-xG in open play. It’s bad, but it should get better — Man Utd have scored 6.26 fewer goals than xG... but that xG figure is still mid-table. So can they be top-four better? Meh. Rasmus Hojlund and Joshua Zirkzee’s aggregate production looms large.
Brentford? Ugh. We know the way they play is fun. We know they’re without key attacking pieces after selling Ivan Toney and suffering injuries to Yoane Wissa and Igor Thiago. But minus-49 shots in open play and 12.54 xGA? Where would they be without red-hot Bryan Mbeumo?
It feels a little harsh to put Crystal Palace and Aston Villa here, but they just barely fit into the category. Villa fans will want credit for navigating the Champions League and sitting fifth. That’s fair! But a plus-11 shots in open play and a draws with Ipswich Town leave question marks, especially considering they’ve played a soft schedule. The loss to Arsenal is fine but producing 0.53 xG at home to a wobbly Man United is questionable. As for Palace, Oliver Glasner’s team will move up the table for sure and they aren’t playing poorly, but they’ve played an easy schedule and are bottom third in expected points. Put under that light, it’s inexcusable to be winless with five goals.