Fulham made Luton Town pay for missed chances as Carlos Vinicius buried one of the hosts’ opportunities in a possession-heavy 1-0 win at Craven Cottage on Saturday.
The pointless promoted Hatters held just 22% of the ball but followed the counter-attacking recipe to more dangerous chances and a superior expected goal total than the winning hosts.
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Fulham’s 78% possession total included 574 more completed passes than Luton Town. The Cottagers now have nine points and sit ninth on the table after five matches.
Luton Town is dead-last on zero points with fellow new boys Burnley, who play Sunday at Nottingham Forest.
Control matters, but finishing matters more
The non-scoreboard numbers behind this win are elite for Fulham.
Man of the Match defender Tim Ream (USMNT) had 153 touches and fellow center back Issa Diop had 10 more than that. Palhinha nearly had 100 in front of them.
But for all of that, the Cottagers were 0-0 in the second half and could’ve been behind had Carlton Morris, Jacob Brown (goal post!), and Tahith Chong found that clinical edge in the Fulham third.
Luton’s Tom Lockyer-led defense slowed all of that Fulham dominance down to just two shots on Thomas Kaminski, one of which was Carlos Vinicius’ winner.
Vinicius scored in his first 28 minutes of the season for Fulham, and Raul Jimenez will be looking over his shoulder. The Mexican striker has one assists in 315 Premier League minutes.
How to watch Fulham vs Luton Town live, stream link, time
Kickoff: 10am ET, Saturday (Sept. 16)
TV channel: Peacock Premium
Stream: Watch online on Peacock Premium
Scroll for all 22 starters’ player ratings from fotmob, but have another look at Tim Ream’s day here.
That’s Rodri’s music.
The 35-year-old USMNT back’s stats in total control should scare Luton as much as they please Fulham, who controlled the game a la Man City.
Well done, but a bit too easy yeah?
Willian cuts down the left side of the box and curls a cross that just misses two defenders and Luton Town keeper Thomas Kaminski.
Carlos Vinicius was always charging the goal and he’s put the ball home for 1-0.
Is that going to be enough?
Luton Town is upset because Alex Iwobi handled the ball earlier in the possession.
Strange one, here, where both teams will feel they are doing what’s required to hold a lead.
So perhaps it’s a fitting 0-0 at Craven Cottage, then?
Fulham hold 76% possession and a 5-3 edge in shots but the Hatters have held firm and are winning the xG fight with a vicious countering intent (and nine fouls to Fulham’s three).
Issa Diop and Tim Ream are already over 80 touches at the break, as Fulham is building out of the back but Luton’s stopping the roofing materials from getting to the construction crew.
Palhinha has been the focal point in possession, especially winning the ball back when Luton gets a hold of it.
But the Fulham man would also acknowledge that the Hatters are doing their best West Ham on the counter attack. They’re just missing finish.
Carlton Morris, Tahith Chong, and Jacob Brown have all threatened a Fulham goal that perhaps has become used to being under threat.
Still 0-0. Possession: 75-25 for Fulham, but Luton slightly in front in xG. Shots 4-3 Fulham.
USMNT back Antonee Robinson misses out after picking up an injury on USMNT duty.
Your FULHAM. ⚪️#FULLUT pic.twitter.com/JZZAwXX7Ry
— Fulham Football Club (@FulhamFC) September 16, 2023
Four changes for the Hatters. 🫡#FULLUT | #COYH pic.twitter.com/8OOa857MzD
— Luton Town FC (@LutonTown) September 16, 2023
It’s expected that Palhinha will be back in the lineup following the mix-up with his Bayern transfer, while Tom Cairney (knee) could also return.
Marco Silva has new signing Alex Iwobi available after a thigh injury but Sasa Lukic (knee) is out for for a bit longer.
Palhinha and Lukic have been quite good this season and the central midfielders will be key to Fulham’s hopes. Having both until at least the January window is a nice boon considering how close the Cottagers came to losing Palhinha in August.
Marco Silva has worked his early season through center backs Tim Ream and Issa Diop, who will hope to have the ball more through possession than defensive touches this Saturday.
And if Fulham wants to get its post-Aleksandar Mitrovic life sorted, especially through Raul Jimenez, it will need someone to post better xA/90 numbers than leaders Harry Wilson (0.09), Tom Cairney (0.08), and Harrison Reed (0.07).
Luton’s attack has been led by Carlton Morris, and the Hatters can look to advanced stats for some hope; Luton’s already 2.37 expected goals below actual output, and more than half of its xG come from open play.
Marvelous Nakamba and Ross Barkley have been bright, but the Hatters may need to score because their nine goals conceded have also come from open play and match up level with xGA.
The Hatters will hope Tom Lockyer passes fit and are also waiting on Alfie Doughty’s return from an achilles injury. Gabriel Osho, Jordan Clark, and Dan Potts are all out of contention, with Osho the only one nearing a return.