Wheeler, Nola, Eflin, Gibson, and Suarez. The Phillies success could come down to how well their starters pitch. How high is Ricky Bottalico’s confident level in the five to get the job done?
The Phillies open the season Friday with the highest expectations they've had in a decade.
The additions of Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos, to a group that already included Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, J.T. Realmuto and Jean Segura, have created a Molotov cocktail of a lineup.
Defense remains a major concern, but with shortstop Didi Gregorius healthy and Bryson Stott set to get time at third base, it has to be better than it was in 2021.
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SIGN UP HERE Ditto for the bullpen, which has undergone a veteran facelift and could profit from a healthy and resurgent Seranthony Dominguez.
With all the buzz created by the offense -- the Phils clubbed 32 homers in 20 spring training games -- and by ownership's decision to spend past the competitive balance tax threshold to put a winner on the field and end an embarrassing 10-year postseason drought, one important aspect of the team slid under the radar in spring training.
Starting pitching remains critical to any team's chances of success, and the Phils stack up favorably to most others in that department with Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Zach Eflin, Ranger Suarez and Kyle Gibson.
There are names in that group that would make the Phillies a dangerous club in a short postseason series, especially with the bat rack they have behind them now.
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But the sobering reality of the Phillies' starting pitching unit is that it is very thin. There is little depth and a big, organizational drop-off after the top 5.
So good health in that group is a must.
Already, the team has seen how health can alter things. Wheeler, runner-up for the NL Cy Young last season, was bothered by shoulder soreness during workouts in December. Then he picked up a flu bug in spring training. All of this, coupled with a desire to go slow with him after he had pitched a majors-high 213 1/3 innings last season, means he won't start until the fifth game of the regular season, Tuesday at home against the Mets.
Eflin had right knee surgery last September and the team was cautious with him in spring training. His first start, slated for Sunday, might be abbreviated.
Nola is good to go.
The 28-year-old right-hander will make his fifth straight opening day start on Friday. Nola knows the Phillies defaulted to him because Wheeler was behind schedule. By the All-Star break, no one will remember who made the opening day start. The Phillies need innings and health from all of their starters.
"Wheels had a really good year last year," Nola said. "I'm just glad he's moving in the right direction. He's going to be back to the Zack he is and give us a bunch of innings.
"Opening day is always special, even if you're not on the bump. You feel blessed to make an opening day roster. It's always butterflies flying around and a little bit of nerves, I think for the fans, as well, because it's the start of the season. It's pretty cool."
Nola's 2021 season has been well documented. When it was over, he called it a disappointment. Usually a practitioner of sharpshooter location, he made an uncharacteristic number of mistakes over the plate. His ERA was a career-high 4.63 and he gave up 82 hits with two strikes, tied for the most in the majors, including 12 homers. Opposing hitters had a .904 OPS with runners in scoring position against Nola. On the plus side, he still had the stuff to strike out 11.1 batters per nine innings.
Nola spent the spring trying to tighten up his breaking ball. He worked on a couple of mechanical adjustments in his delivery -- a little less rotation at the hips, a little more upright at release to create downward angle on the ball.
Mistakes over the plate, particularly with his fastball, were still an issue in spring training as Nola gave up six homers in 14 1/3 innings. "They're not missing too many balls over the plate," he said after one outing. But spring training is still practice. Nola finished camp with 5 1/3 innings of one-hit, one-run -- he allowed a solo homer -- ball against the Tigers on Sunday. He walked none and struck out nine. For the spring, he walked one and struck out 20.
Nola believes he's in a good place heading into the season, which, by the way, could be his last with the Phillies. He has a $16 million club option in his contract for 2023. If the Phillies don't pick up the option, it can be bought out for $4.25 million and he can become a free agent.
So Nola has a lot riding on this season, personally and for a team that badly wants (and needs) to break the longest postseason drought in the National League.
"Super-bad," he said. "And we've got the team to do it. We've just got to put it all together. It's a long season. We haven't been there since we came up. We've got to put it together and I think we will. We have good guys and good chemistry on this team."
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