Todd

Bowles

By almost every measure, the Bucs in 2022 had the league’s worst rushing attack, as Leonard Fournette -- who will probably be released in the coming weeks -- and Rachaad White were terribly inefficient as runners and pass catchers. Tampa Bay was dead last in expected points added (EPA) per rush, with the third worst rushing success rate. White ranked 61st in yards per carry after contact, below backs like Latavius Murray and Ezekiel Elliott. Pro Football Focus graded the Bucs’ run blocking as the eighth worst in 2022. Look for the post-Brady Bucs to be a hyper-conservative offense led by Kyle Trask or a journeyman veteran who will compete with Trask for the starting job. There won’t be much fantasy appeal among Bucs players as the team enters a multi-year rebuilding project.

With Bruce Arians announcing his retirement Wednesday and plans to join the Bucs’ front office, Arians made the call to promote Bowles to head coach. And this isn’t in an interim role, just to clear that up, as Bowles is getting a five-year contract. Arians has been big on wanting Bowles to get another chance at a head-coaching job, and this was his best way to give that to him. Bowles has interviewed for numerous jobs over the last couple offseasons, but he’s been passed over for all of them. It seemed to legitimately piss Arians off that Bowles has been getting bypassed. He and Arians go way back, and Bowles now gets to lead the charge with Tom Brady back for another run at a Super Bowl. The Bucs will now look to find a replacement for Bowles at the coordinator spot.

Per NBC’s Peter King, 69-year-old Arians is taking a “senior consultant” role in the Bucs’ front office, and DC Todd Bowles has been promoted to head coach. There were whispers of a potential Arians retirement after last season, but he seemed all in at another run in 2022. Especially with Tom Brady coming back, the timing of this is odd, but Arians wants to go out on top rather than in a rebuild. There have also been rumors that Arians and Brady’s relationship is strained, but that isn’t believed to be true. Arians handpicked Bowles as his successor. “With the organization in probably the best shape it’s been in its history, with Brady coming back, I’d rather see Todd in position to be successful and not have to take some [crappy] job,” Arians said. “I’m probably retiring next year anyway, in February. So, I control the narrative right now. I don’t control it next February because [if] Brady gets hurt, we go 10-7, and it’s an open interview for the job. I got 31 [coaches and their] families that depend on me. My wife is big on not letting all those families down.” Respect to Arians, that’s a classy move, especially if he wasn’t all the way in on coaching this year. Arians retires with a career 89-51-1 coaching record, one Super Bowl title, and two Coach of the Year awards. Arians has a shot at the Hall of Fame.

Bowles has already met with the Jaguars, Bears, and Vikings but is not among the candidates who have been brought back for a second interview in either Jacksonville or Chicago. Patriots inside linebackers coach Jerod Mayo has also been identified as a candidate for the job. Bowles finished his four years as the Jets’ head coach with a 24-40 record.

Bowles will have to wait until after this weekend to interview with the Bucs playing in the Wild Card round. Tampa’s defense has improved the last three years under Bowles, finishing in the top half of the league in yards allowed while posting positive turnover differentials the last two years. One of the hotter retreads of this coaching cycle, it’s hard to see Bowles getting another shot after winning under 40% of his games in four seasons as head coach of the Jets. Bowles also has interview requests from Chicago and Jacksonville.

Bowles, who’s headed Tampa’s shutdown defense for the past three years, is also a candidate for the Jaguars’ head coach opening. He could have his choice of head coaching gigs depending on how Jacksonville’s interviews shake out in the coming days and weeks, and if anyone really wants the unenviable job. The Jets’ head coach from 2015 to 2018, Bowles, 58, has re-established himself as a viable head coaching candidate after the Bucs defense served as a reliable complement to Tom Brady’s offense since the start of the 2020 season.

Jacksonville is continuing to do their due diligence, requesting interviews with Bucs OC Byron Leftwich, both Cowboys OC Kellen Moore and DC Dan Quinn, Colts DC Matt Eberflus, and former Eagles head coach Doug Pederson. Expect more names to be added to their list of candidates in the coming days.

The 57-year-old will be the league’s highest-paid defensive coordinator after winning the Super Bowl last season. Bowles has never really cracked it as a head coach but remains one of the game’s elite defensive bosses. He interviewed for the Falcons, Lions, and Eagles’ head-coaching gigs in the offseason but was ultimately passed over. Bowles’ defense was No. 5 in team-defense DVOA last season.

Bowles will vie for the Philadelphia head coaching gig after his Tampa defense shut down Drew Brees and the Saints in the Divisional Round. Bowles, 57, went 24-40 in his four years as the Jets’ head coach before being fired after the 2018 season. He’s been Bruce Arians’ defensive boss the last two years and turned that defense into a top unit. He’s likely an underdog in the Eagles’ coaching search. Toxic politics and front office backbiting await whoever gets Philly’s head coaching job.

With Saints assistant HC/TEs coach Dan Campbell emerging as the clear favorite for the job, Bowles decided he has better things to do ahead of Sunday’s Divisional tilt with Campbell’s Saints. The Falcons and Eagles have also been linked to Bowles, but it sounds like the Falcons are leaning in a different direction at this point.