One of the good things about the XFL is that it’s trying some innovative changes to the game, turning the football field into a laboratory for experimenting with new rules. One of the bad things is that coaches aren’t taking enough advantage of those rules.
A prime example is the point after touchdown. In the XFL, there are no point-after kicks. Instead, teams can go for one from the 2-yard line, go for two from the 5-yard line, or go for three from the 10-yard line.
So far, most coaches are attempting one-point conversions.
That’s no surprise, as football coaches tend to be fundamentally risk-averse people. They think it’s safer to go for one than to go for two or three.
But the math says otherwise. According to Ben Fischer of Sports Business Journal, the XFL conducted some practice games and found that teams converted 50 percent of the time from the 2-yard line, 30 percent from the 5 and 10 percent from the 10. That would mean one-point conversion attempts should average 0.5 points, two-point conversion attempts should average 0.6 points, and three-point conversion attempts should average 0.3 points. So, on average, a two-point conversion attempt is the best bet.
And according to Michael Lopez, who does data and analytics for the NFL, if we were to use NFL data on third-and-goal or fourth-and-goal from the 2-yard line, 5-yard line and 10-yard line, we’d find that going for one is worth 0.5 expected points, going for two is worth 0.7 expected points and going for three is worth 0.6 expected points.
So whether you go by the XFL’s test runs or by NFL analytics, going for one is the wrong choice, barring obvious situations such as late in the game after the touchdown tied the score. XFL coaches should take more chances to take better advantage of the XFL’s innovative rules.