When Week 1 rolls around, all 32 teams will be forced to adjust on the fly to the single biggest rule change in years.
The kickoff has been resurrected, and rejuvenated. It’s gone from a perfunctory play to a moment that will cause palpitations.
There will be uncertainty. There could be chaos. It could be a lot of fun to watch.
For the teams that benefit from it, that is. For the teams that don’t, it will be a nightmare. Games could be decided by fourth-quarter kick-return touchdowns. Less obviously, teams that parlay the new procedures into better field position will likely score more points. Teams that can’t make the tackles will see drives starting at or close to midfield.
Once teams get a taste of being on the wrong side of this brave new world of kick returns, they might choose the break-glass option. Kick the ball out of the end zone, and concede the 30 yard line to start the drive.
Here’s my prediction. By the trade deadline, at least half of the league will decide to scrap the effort to cover kicks and just surrender the 30. Teams more likely to do that will be teams with good-to-great defenses. Also, former defensive coordinators will likely be more conservative when it comes to not pinning their careers on what could become special-teams Russian Roulette.
Only one win that becomes a loss due to a single long return could be the thing that keeps a team from getting to the playoffs. Which could make it the thing that gets a coach fired. Plenty of coaches will decide that, if he’s going down with the ship, he’s not going to sail into a lagoon full of floating mines.
We’ve been led to believe that the new kickoff formation will revolutionize the play. If they’d kept the touchback point at the 35 (as originally envisioned), that might have been the case. Moving it to the 30 (as they did at the league meetings), could keep the new play from being as robust as they want it to be once everyone gets a taste of the good things it will cause for some teams — and the bad things it will create for others.