Two weeks ago, Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa accurately observed that “the market is the market.” This carries an important implication.
Tua wants a market deal.
Indeed he does. And that’s one of the biggest reasons why he doesn’t have one yet. The Dolphins have resisted making him one of the highest-paid quarterbacks in the NFL.
Meanwhile, the Jared Goff contract and more recently the Trevor Lawrence contract keep driving the market higher.
Working in Tua’s favor is the fact that his 2022-23 stats compare favorably with the guys who have gotten paid over the past year and one who inevitably will be: Joe Burrow ($55 million per year), Trevor Lawrence ($55 million), Jared Goff ($53 million), Justin Herbert ($52.5 million), Lamar Jackson ($52 million), Jalen Hurts ($51 million), Dak Prescott (TBD).
Tua is north of 67 percent in completion percentage over 2022 and 2023, like Burrow and Prescott. Tua has 4,086 passing yards on average over 2022 and 2023 — more than any of them. He’s second in average passing touchdowns (27) behind Dak (30). Also, Tua has the highest yards per attempt (9.0), yards per completion (13.0), yards per game (272), and passer rating (103) of the players listed.
Some will say he’s got a great supporting cast. Others do, too. For Tua, it’s about making quick decisions in the Mike McDaniel offense. And Tua does that well.
Does he do it well enough to justify a contract that starts with a 5? The Dolphins presumably want his deal to begin with a 4. And that’s the most likely reason for the lingering impasse.
As mentioned last week, our sense is that it truly could go either way. The Dolphins will likely put a last, best offer on the table at some point before the start of camp or the regular season, and Tua will have to decide whether to take it or play for his fifth-year option of $23.1 million.
The wildcard in all of this is whether Tua would refuse to show up unless and until he gets what he wants or close to it. While he has been present for much of the offseason program, he wouldn’t be the first guy to play nice during OTAs before drawing a line in the sand when training camp opens.
So that’s the next big question. Will he have a contract before camp opens and, if not, will he be there when it does?
If, as it clearly appears, he wants a market deal, the first answer will likely be “no” and the second will be “we’ll see.”
