We try to avoid talking about MVP candidates until at least four games have been played. After Week 4, it’s open season on MVP chatter.
At the major sportsbooks, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the favorite — with only six touchdown passes and five interceptions and a passer rating below 90. Bills quarterback Josh Allen, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson, and Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud are among the other favorites.
Then there’s Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold, 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy, Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow, Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels, Lions quarterback Jared Goff, and Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield.
Those names all make sense. The MVP has become a quarterback award, with the quarterbacks of the two teams that finish with the top seeds in the AFC and NFC the most likely winners.
For anyone else to do it, something historic or close to it needs to happen.
So for those who choose to peel off some of their disposable, discretionary income to make a responsible futures bet on MVP, they’re essentially betting that the player’s team will be the No. 1 seed, and that he’ll then get more votes than the quarterback of the other No. 1 seed.