On Monday, a new lawsuit was filed against Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson. After initially declining comment on the matter, the NFL announced on Tuesday that it is exploring the complaint and will review the matter under the Personal Conduct Policy.
So what happens next? Here’s a look at the expected steps.
NFL investigation.
The review will presumably include an effort to identify and to communicate with the accuser, who filed the lawsuit under the Jane Doe pseudonym. Because the league has no subpoena power or other devices for compelling cooperation, the case goes nowhere if the accuser won’t talk to the league.
Attorney Tony Buzbee becomes the most critical figure in that analysis. If he recommends cooperation to his client, she likely will. If he recommends against cooperating, she won’t.
The investigation will focus on corroboration of the allegations, starting with confirming that Watson did indeed go to the accuser’s apartment on October 10, 2020. (The Texans hosted the Jaguars the next day.) It will explore whether and to what extent she told others about the incident after it occurred.
At some point, Watson will be interviewed.
After the investigation concludes, the league will activate the in-house process for proving a violation — if the league believes a violation occurred.
Hearing.
The 2020 Collective Bargaining Agreement created an independent process for conducting a hearing regarding potential Personal Conduct Policy violations. That apparatus was used two years ago, when Judge Sue Robinson found that Watson had violated the policy in connection with four massage therapists who had alleged sexual misconduct.
In the prior case, Judge Robinson found that Watson’s strong denial of the allegations was not credible. That conclusion surely will echo into the next case, if there is one.
On that point, Watson might argue that the 2022 disciplinary process prevents another attempted punishment arising from similar facts. However, this case was not brought by a massage therapist. It is, in essence, a claim of alleged date rape.
It could be difficult for Watson to argue that the NFL is attempting to take a second bite of the apple. The apple seems to be wholly distinct.
Appeal.
If Judge Robinson imposes discipline on Watson, he can appeal the ruling to the Commissioner.
The factual findings made by Judge Robinson cannot be overturned. The question becomes whether the Commissioner would decrease the punishment.
Contract.
If Watson ultimately is suspended for even one game — and if Watson did not disclose this potential claim in writing when he signed with the Browns — the team could void his remaining guarantees and release him.
The stakes are very high. After this season, Watson has $46 million in fully guaranteed pay due in 2025, and another $46 million in fully guaranteed pay due in 2026. That’s $92 million, in all.
Given the money that suddenly could be at risk, Watson’s best play would be to quickly resolve the case, securing an agreement that the accuser will not discuss the case with anyone, absent a subpoena compelling her compliance. That would short-circuit the league’s investigation, and it would likely prevent the league from securing a suspension of Watson, since there would be no witness to dispute Watson’s denial of wrongdoing.
However it plays out, this is an issue that could result in both a suspension of Watson and an escape by the Browns of the final two years of his contract.
