When it comes to NFL contracts, only three factors matter: (1) signing bonus; (2) full guarantee at signing; and (3) cash flow over the first three years.
When it comes to the Broncos and linebacker Von Miller, the last factor has emerged as the biggest impediment. Per a source with knowledge of the situation, Miller has requested more than $70 million over the first three years of the deal.
It’s not an outlandish demand. Ndamukong Suh gets $60 million over the first three years of his contract with Miami. Miller is objectively a better player. If he would have hit the open market in March, it wouldn’t have been a shock to see Miller get $70 million over three years, or more.
Also, if Miller asked for more than $70 million as an opener, he surely had room to move downward. So he probably doesn’t want $70 million-plus as his bottom-line position.
As the source explained it, Miller didn’t want that full amount to be fully guaranteed at signing. As practical matter, however, if most of it is guaranteed, all of it likely will be paid.
A fair expectation as to fully-guaranteed money over three years would be $55.4 million, the sum of three years of franchise-tag money for Miller. The Broncos have offered $39.5 million over two; the fact that the team didn’t leak the amount that it has offered over three years suggests it’s not nearly as impressive as $39.5 million over two.
Ultimately, the cash flow through three years will determine whether this deal gets done. And it surely won’t get done until July 15 or shortly before that, if at all.
