When quarterback Kirk Cousins was asked whether he would have signed with the Falcons if he’d known they’d be using the eighth overall pick on a quarterback, Cousins said, “I don’t really deal in hypotheticals.”
That was a soft way of saying, “Hell no.”
A recent item from Kevin Seifert of ESPN.com that chronicles the Vikings’ two-year journey from Cousins to J.J. McCarthy shows that the Vikings wanted to do with Cousins exactly what the Falcons did.
Here’s the key passage: "[Coach Kevin] O’Connell leveled with Cousins after the season: The Vikings’ 3-6 record after his injury had exposed the dangers of not looking beyond a 36-year-old quarterback. With their best draft position (No. 11 overall) in a decade, the team had decided to tap into a deep 2024 quarterback class and find its next starter. But no one -- not ownership, not [G.M. Kwesi] Adofo-Mensah and not O’Connell -- wanted the rookie to play right away. Cousins would be their starter in 2024 and possibly longer.”
Even if the Vikings had offered Cousins the same contract the Falcons did ($90 million fully guaranteed at signing, with another $10 million that vests next year), Cousins likely would have opted for the place where retirement would have been a strong option. That’s what he, and everyone else, thought he was getting when he went to Atlanta.
Now, he’s in the same position he would have been in if he had stayed in Minnesota. There’s a rookie whom the team is getting ready to play, at some vague point in the future. When will that be? It will depend on how Cousins plays in the first year after tearing an Achilles tendon. It will depend on how quickly the rookie develops. It will depend on how the team performs. It will depend on how popular the backup becomes among the fan base.
I’ve put the Kirk Cousins over-under with the Falcons at two years. He could be traded after only one year, with a cap charge for the Falcons of $37.5 million for 2024 and an overall investment of $62.5 million in cash for one. A new team would get him at a base salary of only $27.5 million for 2025.
Yes, Cousins has a no-trade clause. But if the choices are to stay and not play or approve a trade and get on the field, what will he do?
After every season, teams make big decisions about their most important positions. There will be teams looking for short-term answers at quarterback. And, at $27.5 million for 2025 and $35 million for 2026, Cousins would be a short-term bargain.