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Vegas win totals show Chiefs face NFL’s toughest schedule in 2022

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The Bills sit atop the list of AFC win totals, and Chris Simms is riding the Buffalo hype train as Mike Florio stays optimistic about the Dolphins and Steelers.

The Chiefs have made it at least to the AFC Championship Game in all four years with Patrick Mahomes as their starting quarterback. Making it five in a row is going to be incredibly difficult.

That’s in part because of roster turnover, including the loss of Tyreek Hill, but a possibly greater factor is how difficult the Chiefs’ schedule is for 2022.

A look at all 32 NFL teams’ strength of schedule based on their opponents’ Vegas win totals reveals that the Chiefs have by far the toughest schedule in the NFL. Vegas win totals, which at this time of year are the best way of projecting teams’ strength, show that the AFC is tougher than the NFC this year, the AFC West in particular is tough, and the NFL’s scheduling format did the Chiefs no favors: Kansas City gets three opponents based on its first-place finish in 2021, and those three teams are expected to be among the best teams in the NFL: The Bills, Bengals and Buccaneers.

None of that means the Chiefs can’t have another great season. But the Chiefs’ impressive run of six straight AFC West titles is bound to end eventually, and it could end less because the Chiefs get worse than because their opponents get better.