It’s believed in some circles that, eventually, the NFL will replace the onside kick with a fourth-down play conducted by the team that otherwise would be kicking off. The USFL will be re-debuting next month with that specific wrinkle in the rulebook.
The USFL will allow the kicking team to make a choice. It may conduct a “traditional” onside kick from the standard kickoff spot of the 25-yard line, or it may attempt a fourth-and-12 play from its own 33-yard line. If the team converts a first down, it retains possession. If it fails, the other team assumes possession.
NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell first mentioned the fourth-and-15 play as an alternative to the kickoff generally in the 2012 Time cover story touting him as The Enforcer. It was presented as an idea from Buccaneers coach Greg Schiano based on his personal experience at Rutgers, when Eric LeGrand suffered a serious neck injury during a traditional kickoff.
In 2019, the Broncos proposed the fourth-and-15 play as an alternative to the onside kick. Not enough owners voted for it -- even though the Competition Committee recommended it by a vote of 7-1.
In September 2021, Goodell mentioned the possibility of a fourth-and-15 play during an appearance on Morten Andersen’s podcast when discussing the difficulty in recovering an onside kick.
“I do see something happening in that area, because we don’t want something to be a dead play,” Goodell said. “When there’s no excitement to it and the outcome is pretty much -- I think we’re literally down to . . . four percent success rate [for recovering onside kicks].” Goodell then mentioned the fourth-and-15 possibility. He also acknowledged the unintended consequence of a long defensive pass interference penalty happening on a fourth-and-15 onside-kick alternative.
If something is going to happen for 2022, it could happen next week, when the owners gather in Florida to consider proposed rule changes. Per a source with knowledge of the situation, the fourth-and-15 alternative currently isn’t on the docket of proposal. That doesn’t mean it won’t be discussed, or acted upon. As explained in Playmakers, the controversial lowering-the-helmet rule wasn’t on the docket, either. But it went from concept to rule quickly, at the annual meeting.
That said, a rule change from 2021 helped increase the onside-kick success rate to 17.3 percent in the 2021 regular season (nine of 52). In 2020, the regular-season recovery rate was only 4.9 percent (three of 61). While the success rate still hasn’t returned to the 21-percent figure from 2017 (the last year before changes to the kickoff formation made onside kicks much harder to recover), it’s a major improvement. The league therefore may decide to give the new onside kick approach (which limits the receiving team to nine players in the “setup zone”) more of a chance before ditching the current approach for what would be a radical change.
Meanwhile, the NFL also can monitor the USFL’s experience with the fourth-and-12 alternative. If it works there, maybe the NFL will consider adopting it.
