Tom Brady and Peyton Manning can do a lot on a football field, but most of the time, they can’t win a head-to-head battle unless they have the better defense on their side.
In the 17 Brady-Manning games, the team with the better defense is 10-7, suggesting that -- contrary to the media narrative suggesting the games are little more than quarterback vs. quarterback -- the defense is more important. (For these purposes, the “better defense” is the one with the higher Football Outsiders ranking. Football Outsiders takes every play of the entire season and compares the performance on each play to the average team’s performance in the same situation. It’s a better all-around measure of a defense than more traditional stats like yards allowed or points allowed, as those stats are more influenced by things the defense doesn’t control, like field position at the start of a drive.)
It turns out that Brady has had the better defense 10 times in their head-to-head meetings, while Manning has had the better defense seven times. Brady has won seven times with the better defense and four times with the worse defense, while Manning has won three times with the better defense and three times with the worse defense.
Early in their careers, Brady’s Patriots consistently had a better defense than Manning’s Colts: The Patriots won the first six Brady-Manning matchups, and the Patriots had the better defense in all of them.
In 2005, the Colts’ defense surpassed the Patriots’ defense, and Manning’s team finally won a head-to-head battle. It wasn’t until 2006, when Manning twice led good offensive efforts against the Patriots, that the quarterback with the worse defense finally won a head-to-head battle.
Most recently, in Sunday’s AFC Championship Game, the Broncos’ league-best defense shut down Brady and helped Manning get to another Super Bowl. Some will say that was Manning beating Brady, but it was really the better defense winning, as usual.
Here’s the full list of Brady-Manning games, with the team’s defensive rankings that season:
Games won by Brady, with the better defense (7)
2001: The Patriots, with the No. 13 defense, beat the Colts, with the No. 29 defense, twice in the regular season. (This was the only year Brady and Manning were in the same division and therefore the only year they played twice in the regular season.)
2003: The Patriots, with the No. 2 defense, beat the Colts, with the No. 13 defense, once in the regular season and once in the playoffs.
2004: The Patriots, with the No. 7 defense, beat the Colts, with the No. 19 defense, once in the regular season and once in the postseason.
2010: The Patriots, with the No. 21 defense, beat the Colts, with the No. 24 defense, in the regular season.
Games won by Manning, with the better defense (3)
2005: The Colts, with the No. 5 defense, beat the Patriots, with the No. 27 defense, in the regular season.
2013: The Broncos, with the No. 15 defense, beat the Patriots, with the No. 20 defense, in the playoffs.
2015: The Broncos, with the No. 1 defense, beat the Patriots, with the No. 12 defense, in the playoffs.
Games won by Brady, with the worse defense (4)
2007: The Patriots, with the No. 11 defense, beat the Colts, with the No. 2 defense, in the regular season.
2012: The Patriots, with the No. 15 defense, beat the Broncos, with the No. 5 defense, in the regular season.
2013: The Patriots, with the No. 20 defense, beat the Broncos, with the No. 15 defense, in the regular season.
2014: The Patriots, with the No. 12 defense, beat the Broncos, with the No. 4 defense, in the regular season.
Games won by Manning, with the worse defense (3)
2006: The Colts, with the No. 25 defense, beat the Patriots, with the No. 7 defense, once in the regular season and once in the playoffs.
2009: The Colts, with the No. 16 defense, beat the Patriots, with the No. 14 defense, in the regular season.