In Judge Philip Gutierrez transferring $14.1 billion with the stroke of a pen, many around the NFL breathed a deep sigh of relief.
The prospect of each team coming up with $440 million to satisfy the verdict would have had widespread ramifications. (And, obviously, it still could, if the plaintiffs prevail on appeal.)
In the weeks after the $4.7 billion verdict was returned (by law, it would have been tripled), folks throughout the league’s overall infrastructure were realizing that paying it off wouldn’t be as simple as every owner writing a giant check and moving on. Even if there would have been no direct impact on the salary cap (and some owners were already plotting to spread the pain to players), plenty of teams would have been spending less.
For example, Packers quarterback Jordan Love will make, in all, $79 million this year under his new contract. That kind of cash flow would not happen in any year in which the Packers would have had to surrender $440 million for Sunday Ticket liability.
Likewise, there’s a salary cap and a salary floor. More teams would be congregating at the floor, if/when they have to pay the out-of-market piper.
Belts would be tightened elsewhere. Coaches would be paid less. Executives would be paid less. Other non-player employees would be paid less. Layoffs would happen. Even though the owners were responsible for the antitrust violation, they would have found a way to spread the consequences as broadly as possible. That’s just the way business works.
Thursday’s ruling doesn’t mean everything goes back to normal. Until the case is completely and totally over, the possibility of eventually having to pay the money looms. But the league has pivoted in one fell swoop from a position of extreme weakness to a position of extreme strength.
In turn, the plaintiffs are now in a position of extreme weakness. Even though the jury properly found (per the judge) that the Sunday Ticket distribution and pricing violates federal antitrust laws, those who purchased it from 2011 through 2022 will get nothing and like it, barring a successful appeal.
The biggest question is whether anything will change, when it comes to the availability and pricing of Sunday Ticket. Will out-of-market games still be exclusive to YouTube, or whoever buys the Sunday Ticket package in the future? Will the price go down? Will a single-team option be available?
And, ultimately, will every game be available as part of a basic package of network and cable channels? Judge Gutierrez seems to be unable or unwilling to comprehend the basic reality that, if the NFL had to get rid of Sunday Ticket, it would come up with another way to distribute out of market games.
The best way to maximize viewership — and potentially revenue — could be to sell the national home-team packages to CBS and Fox and to sell the rights to the out-of-market games to other networks, from NBC to ABC to ESPN to FS1 to USA, allowing all fans to watch any games they want. Without paying more than $400 per year. Without paying anything more than what they already pay for their cable/satellite/streaming block of options.
To date, the league has opted to restrict out-of-market games to the Sunday Ticket package. If the NFL was forced to disband Sunday Ticket, it would come up with something else. While we’ll have more to say about the decision, Gutierrez decided that he didn’t like the “something else” that the plaintiffs presented through a pair of expert witnesses.
And so, even though Sunday Ticket violates antitrust laws — and even though the jury pegged the damages at $4.7 billion — the judge decided to give the NFL a free pass for past violations. It remains to be seen what that means for the future.
It has to mean something. It’s impossible to think that the Sunday Ticket package violates antitrust law, but that it’s fine for the NFL to do it because judges will continuously reject any effort to conjure a world without it. The easiest solution would be to tell the NFL to disband Sunday Ticket in its current form, and to let nature take its course.