Sometimes, a player bets on himself. Sometimes, a team bets against a player.
By not picking up the fifth-year option of 2021 first-round running back Najee Harris, the Steelers are essentially betting against him.
They’re betting that he’s not going to generate that kind of interest for 2025, whatever he does in 2024. It’s a surprise, given that Harris has three 1,000-yard performances in three NFL seasons.
It’s also a projection that those performances won’t last through 2025. Harris has 834 carries in three seasons, and 144 receptions. Overall, he has 978 NFL touches; it’s an average of 326 per year.
He had 718 touches at Alabama. That’s 1,696 since high school. Throw in another 300 or so this year, and he’ll be over 2,000.
At some point, the wheels come off. Even if they don’t, the position isn’t generating massive deals in free agency.
Harris is a tough runner with a great attitude. But he doesn’t have the kind of burst that allows him to bust through the first level of a defense and explode into the secondary and beyond. How will the league value that?
Whatever the price, the Steelers are betting that they’ll be in a better position if they didn’t pick up the option.
The Steelers might simply be dangling a carrot for Harris, like the Buccaneers did when they didn’t pick up running back Doug Martin’s option. Martin responded, rushing for 1,402 yards in what became his contract year. However, Martin didn’t even get to 500 yards in the two seasons before or the two seasons after.
The real question is whether a huge season for Harris will result in the Steelers making a big offer to keep him off the market — or whether they’ll still let him walk and find a cheaper option, recognizing that the big numbers were the direct result of the chase for a contract.
