In most years, the announcement of the All-Pro team and an inspection of the votes points directly to the eventual league MVP. This year, it might not be as obvious.
Some voters, we’re told, are considering whether it’s appropriate for 2023 to vote for Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson as MVP, but not as the All-Pro quarterback. Technically, it’s permissible. “Value” (which isn’t defined) and, say, an assessment of All-Pro based on statistical achievement (there’s no specific guidance on All-Pro, either) could justify regarding Lamar as the MVP but someone else as the All-Pro quarterback.
Here’s an important point of clarification. They don’t want AP voters to declare their voting intentions prematurely. Personally, however, I’ll have a very hard time not making the MVP — regardless of position — a first-team All-Pro at the position he plays.
Some are nevertheless wrestling with this question. Jackson is 14th in passing yards. (Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa currently leads the league.) Lamar is fifth in passer rating. (49ers quarterback Brock Purdy ranks first.) Jackson is tenth in passing touchdowns. (Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is first.)
Lamar Jackson is the overwhelming leader in rushing yards for quarterbacks, with 821. (Both Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts and Bills quarterback Josh Allen have 15 rushing touchdowns; Lamar has five.)
It’s difficult to unbundle MVP from All-Pro. In 2021, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers was 10th in passing yards and sixth in passing touchdowns. He still won both MVP and first-team All-Pro.
The best evidence to make Lamar both the MVP and first-team All-Pro comes from 2011. That year, Rodgers was the MVP, and Saints quarterback Drew Brees was the NFL offensive player of the year. Rodgers, not Brees, was the first-team All-Pro. If stats drives the All-Pro bus, it should have been Brees, who threw for 5,476 yards that season, shattering Dan Marino’s 27-year-old record of 5,084.
This year, there won’t be a single 5,000-yard passer — unless Tua throws for 549 on Sunday night. Peyton Manning’s single-season touchdown record of 55 is even more safe; Dak has 32. It’s highly unlikely that a quarterback will be the offensive player of the year. Even if Tua or Dak or another quarterback other than Lamar Jackson were on track to be named offensive player of the year, the 2011 Rodgers-Brees precedent shows that, when it comes to All-Pro quarterback, value trumps numbers.
Bottom line? If history means anything, anyone who makes Lamar the MVP should also make him the first-team All-Pro.
