Broncos coach Sean Payton made a shocking decision to punt with 4:35 remaining in the fourth quarter while trailing 27-24 and facing fourth-and-6 on the 49-yard line on Thursday night. It didn’t go well for his team.
The Chargers got the ball after the punt and promptly marched down the field on a six-play, 90-yard touchdown drive that gave the Chargers a 34-24 lead and for all intents and purposes put the game away. After the game, Payton was asked why he punted.
“The timeouts, all the percentages, field position, we just didn’t get them stopped,” Payton said.
Payton didn’t specify what “percentages” he was referring to, but the analytics models very strongly recommended going for it in that situation. When you’re losing with less than five minutes left in the fourth quarter, punting the ball back to your opponent is rarely a good idea — and even less so at midfield, when a conversion would get you at least into range for a long game-tying field goal.
It was a strange decision for Payton, and one that gave the Chargers exactly what they wanted: The ball in Justin Herbert’s hands.
