After the Saints surprisingly trimmed a 23-point deficit to eight with 3:53 to play and no timeouts, they opted for an onside kick. It was a clunky, sort-of surprise, with the Saints acting like they were going to kick it away before pivoting to an attempt that, as the vast majority of onside kicks do, failed.
The Saints should have kicked away. While coach Dennis Allen is right when he says the Saints hadn’t been doing a good job of stopping the Rams, giving L.A. the ball at their own 25 is a far cry from coughing it up at the New Orleans 45.
The Saints had just blocked a punt. The Rams might have factored the fear of a second one into their playcalling. They might have been more aggressive, perhaps too aggressive, in order to avoid another punt. They might have misfired once or twice, with an incompletion that would have stopped the clock.
Regardless, the psychology of the drive would have been far different if the Rams had started on their own 25. Recovering the onside kick, coupled with the ensuing field position, allowed them to once again believe the game was essentially over. From their own 25, it wouldn’t have been. At least not right away.
And while the Saints still had a chance to force a punt, the thirty yards of field position makes a huge difference.
The Saints probably would have lost either way. Pinning the hopes on an onside kick at a time when precious few onside kicks are recovered wasn’t, and isn’t, the way to go.
