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Release, not trade, is the most likely outcome for Broncos and Russell Wilson

It’s over. Done. Kaput. Finito.

The Broncos are cutting their losses. They soon will be cutting quarterback Russell Wilson.

Less than two years after they gave up two first-round picks, two second-round picks, a fifth-round pick, tight end Noah Fant, defensive tackle Shelby Harris, and quarterback Drew Lock to get Wilson — and only 15 months after giving him a massive deal that will have paid out $119 million over two years (with the Seahawks paying another $5 million), the Broncos are moving on.

That’s coach Sean Payton’s way. Once it’s been determined that a mistake has been made, don’t double down. Move on, move out. If Payton had any desire to keep Wilson at the terms of his current deal, Wilson wouldn’t be benched for the balance of the season. They’d keep things going with Wilson, instead of looking for a spark from Jarrett Stidham.

A trade could happen, but it won’t. Wilson has a no-trade clause. And he has no reason to waive it. Why consent to an arrangement that results in his new team giving anything of value to the Broncos when Wilson can simply wait to be released and pick his destination?

With $39 million already fully guaranteed to Wilson in 2024, he could do a one-year deal for the veteran minimum with a new team, forcing the Broncos to pay the balance.

That’s the smart path for Wilson. One year. League minimum. Stick the Broncos with the balance. Re-establish himself in his city of choice. Then, re-sign in 2025 or hit the market again.

From the moment the Broncos made it clear that Wilson will be benched, that became the only outcome. He’ll be released before the next $37 million in injury guarantees become fully guaranteed, on the fifth day of the league year. Then, the question becomes where he’ll go next.