When the regular season begins on Thursday night, the NFL officially will debut a revolutionary change to the kickoff formation. Whether the new approach significantly changes the outcome of the play remains to be seen.
Based on 49 preseason games, the numbers suggest that teams will be inclined to do what they usually did under the prior formation — kick it out of the end zone, and let the drive start at the touchback point.
Yes, the touchback point has changed from the 25 to the 30. But the preseason stats suggest the safer approach will be to boom it deep and line up on the 30.
Per the NFL, the average starting field position for all preseason kickoffs was the 28.8. For kickoffs that were returned, the average starting point was the 28. Given those numbers, the risk-reward analysis consists of balancing automatic placement at the 30 against the competing possibilities of pinning the offense deeper than the 30 — and of giving up a long return.
That said, teams likely held their cards close to the vest in the preseason. Based on conversations with a wide range of sources from throughout the league, some teams will believe that their kicker can consistently place a line drive in the 20-yard landing zone, hopeful that it skitters untouched into the end zone. That will force the return specialist to take a knee — which would start the drive at the 20 — or attempt a return. Per the league, kickoffs returned from the end zone during the preseason resulted in an average starting point of the 23.3.
There will be strategic considerations. As one source explained it, a team trailing in the fourth quarter and opting not to attempt the low-percentage declared onside kick might try to pin the opponent at or near the 20, in order to get better field position if a punt is forced. For drives that start at the 30, even a gain of five total yards in three plays would result in a punt from the 35, possibly giving the team that’s losing a much longer field.
For a team that’s leading late, the likelihood of a premeditated touchback becomes even greater.
All in all, the preseason numbers have created a prevailing sense that not much will change. The stats through 49 exhibition games will support a default decision to kick it out of the end zone. The regular season could change that, as kick returns happen (if/when they do) and more reliable metrics are generated.
As it stands, many believe the dynamic kickoff won’t be much different from its predecessor, with the only difference being that the offense will be 70 yards away from the end zone, instead of 75.
From the league’s perspective, fewer kickoffs necessarily will mean fewer injuries. And the NFL can say that at least it tried to resuscitate what it has described as a dead play.