The TV coverage of the draft oozes with unbridled enthusiasm about each and every first-round pick. The reality is far less positive.
Case in point -- of the 32 first-round picks selected in 2020, only 12 fifth-year options were exercised.
The not-dirty dozen consists of Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (No. 1); Giants tackle Andrew Thomas (No. 4); Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (No. 5); Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (No. 6); Panthers defensive tackle Derrick Brown (No. 7); Browns tackle Jedrick Wills (No. 10); Buccaneers tackle Tristan Wirfs (No. 13); Broncos receiver Jerry Jeudy (No. 15); Falcons cornerback A.J. Terrell (No. 16); Cowboys receiver CeeDee Lamb (No. 17); Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson (No. 22); and 49ers receiver Brandon Aiyuk (No. 25).
None of those 12 players have received their second contracts, yet. Each should, especially since they’ve necessarily outperformed a wage-scale rookie deal kept low to protect the system against busts.
In 2020, the first-round ultimately had 19 busts. In most cases, injury was the culprit.
The wildcard is Packers quarterback Jordan Love, who hasn’t played enough to be a boom or a bust. The Packers and Love worked out a one-year extension, aimed at achieving a win-win for player and team.
Since the fifth-year option arrived as part of the 2011 CBA, the 2020 class sets the new low point with only 12 exercised. Because the option is now fully guaranteed at exercise, teams are being more careful than ever.
Also, the 2020 pre-draft process was disrupted by the pandemic. After the Scouting Combine, things pretty much ended until the virtual draft happened in late April.