For weeks, I’ve believed that plenty of coaches will decide not to take the bait as to the new “dynamic” kickoff. In lieu of running the risk of long returns, they’ll strategically kick the ball out of the end zone and give up the 30 — just as they routinely gave up the 25 in recent years.
If, as it was through the first full week of the preseason, the average starting field position after a return was the 28.5, why not make it the 30 and take a touchdown off the table?
There’s another benefit to having a standard practice of kicking out of the end zone. As one source recently explained to PFT — and as at least one team is thinking about the situation — a strategy of always kicking off out of the end zone allows the team to avoid spending time practicing kickoff returns. Those reps can be used on something else.
Owners can avoid a potential repeat of the non-dynamic kickoff by moving the touchback point from the 30 to the 35.
Barring a change, the safest approach will be to consistently concede the 30. The smartest approach could be to weave unpredictability into the approach. Lull the opponent to sleep when it comes to banging it into the front row and then, without warning, pooch a kick to the 10.
We’ll see how it all plays out. If the touchback point doesn’t change from the 30, bet the under as to the number of kickoff returns we’ll see.