The annual MVP race has certain basic realities.
First, we care about it a lot more during the season than when the season ends. Second, it’s not relevant until the season ends. Third, where the teams finish in the standings when the season ends has a huge impact on who wins. (For more on that point, check out Peter King’s most recent edition of Football Morning in America.)
Nevertheless, let’s talk about the current betting odds for the NFL’s MVP award.
The latest numbers via PointsBet have seen Bills quarterback Josh Allen climb from a +3000 longshot to a +1500 contender. In other words, last week a $100 bet would have generated $3,000. Now, that same $100 bet would yield only $1,500.
Allen currently is fifth on the list, behind Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson (+220), Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (+350), Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (+700), and Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (+1050).
As King noted on Monday, whether a quarterback’s team finishes atop the standings in its conference traditionally has been a huge factor in determining the MVP. If, for example, the statistics generated by Mahomes and Wilson are relatively equal and if the Chiefs grab the No. 1 seed in the AFC but the Seahawks aren’t the top seed in the NFC, who will gets more votes? Quite possibly, Mahomes.
Injury also is an obvious factor in the chase for MVP. Last year, Mahomes missed a couple of games with a knee injury, and it dropped him out of the competition -- even though he’s arguably the best player currently in the NFL at any position.
The odds will surely continue to shift and change. At the end of the day, however, it’s safe to say that the true finalists will be Mahomes, Wilson, Rodgers, Tom Brady (if the Bucs win the No. 1 seed), Allen, and Cam Newton, who continues to be a good buy at +2500, up from +3000 last week.
