We’ve been kicking around the possibility that the revolutionary new kickoff formation will result in plenty of teams banging the ball out of the end zone and giving up the 30-yard line for the start of a drive. As the start of the season creeps closer and closer, it’s becoming more and more clear that teams will be seriously thinking about doing it — perhaps sooner than later.
I’ve previously predicted that, by the trade deadline on the Tuesday after Week 9, half of the league will be kicking the ball out of the end zone. That might be low, and it might be late.
Consider this. Earlier this year, Cowboys special-teams coordinator John Fassel said that the projected starting field position with the new XFL-style kickoff formation will be the 28 or 29 yard line. So why not just give up the extra yard or two and avoid the possibility of a long return or a touchdown?
Then there’s the possibility, as one smart coach explained it recently, that some teams will choose to kick out of the end zone at the outset of the season, so that the play can be studied based on the teams that choose to be the guinea pigs for it. And that makes a lot of sense. One long return in Week 1 could be the difference between a win and a loss. When Week 18 rolls around, that loss that could have been a win could be the thing that causes the team to miss the playoffs. Which could get the coach fired.
Coaches want to control what they can control. They can better control the performance of the defense than the roll of the dice associated with putting the ball in play under the new electric football-style approach, which freezes 19 players in place until the kick is caught or strikes the playing field in the landing zone.
As originally developed, the starting point for kickoffs out of the end zone under the new formation would have been the 35. The proposal was revised on the weekend before owners discussed and voted on the new kickoff formation.
The easy fix would be to move it back to the 35. Several weeks ago, a source with knowledge of the dynamics said it’s too late for that.
So it’s the 30 — barring something that would be unrealistic, unexpected, and unconventional. And if it’s the 30, the dead play might slide back to life support. It will be far from resurrected.