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How will Bill Belichick’s departure from the Patriots unfold?

The 2023 Patriots have landed squarely in the “hot mess” category. The latest indignity for the proud franchise happened several days ago, when its Week 15 game against the Chiefs became the first ever flex out of Monday night.

Yes, the Patriots are so bad that the NFL removed a Patrick Mahomes game from prime time.

The NFL can flex but they can’t hide the Patriots. On Thursday night, New England will play the Steelers on Amazon. The Patriots are currently so devoid of talent that promos for the contest during Thursday’s Seahawks-Cowboys game featured an image of coach Bill Belichick.

Then, on Christmas Eve, the Broncos host the Patriots in a standalone game on NFL Network. Denver will be the contender; the Patriots will be the spoiler. Millions will opt to watch George Bailey jump off a bridge and/or Ralphie Parker shoot his eye out.

The season mercifully ends in Week 18, with a home game against the Jets. It’s fitting that the team Belichick coached for basically a day will be the last team he faces in his 24-year run in New England.

So what happens after that game ends? It’s become a foregone conclusion that Belichick will be gone. Will he be fired? Will he quit? Will he retire? Will the two sides mutually part?

The other option for the Patriots would be to hold Belichick unless and until another team calls the Patriots in an effort to trade for his contract. But the Patriots will need to get on with their own search for a new coach. That’s why the most likely outcome could be a separation described as something other than a firing, so that the Patriots can later get compensation if/when another team expresses an interest in hiring Belichick.

Such a move would include some risk for the Patriots. If they want too much for Belichick, he could always say, “Fine. I’ll keep coaching the Patriots.” And Belichick is smart enough to want to minimize any and all draft picks that another team would have to surrender to get him, because that in turn limits the resources he has available to him in his next stop.

For that reason alone, Belichick will want to be a free agent. The Patriots will want compensation. Belichick’s only play to avoid his next team giving up compensation would be to dig in his heels and say, “I’m not leaving.”

The end result could be a game of high-stakes chicken between Belichick and owner Robert Kraft that will be far more compelling than any game the Patriots have played this year.

Of course, that’s a pretty low bar. As Patriots safety Jabrill Peppers accurately observed after last Sunday’s loss to the Giants, the 2023 Patriots are indeed “ass.”