I noticed on Friday a suggestion that the recent Derek Carr extension will be the starting point for Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson’s next contract.
Suggest again.
Wilson is represented by an agent who has one NFL client. Mark Rodgers has a history of driving a very hard bargain on Wilson’s behalf. The Carr contract, frankly, is not the product of a hard bargain. It’s a capitulation by a player who, in my view, was so determined to remain with the team and so earnest about ingratiating himself to new Patriot-way management that he took a deal that looks good on the surface, but that screams out “team friendly” just under the top layer of the epidermis.
Mark Rodgers will scoff at the Carr deal. It would likely be a blunder for the Broncos to even mention it as a relevant data point to Wilson’s next contract.
The starting point for Mark Rodgers on behalf of Russell Wilson won’t be Carr’s deal. It more likely will be Deshaun Watson’s. Five years, $46 million per year, fully guaranteed -- and go from there.
Wilson typically signs four-year extensions with one year left on his current contract. So that’s a first-year deal, and Mark Rodgers will at least want $46 million per year for Wilson, with every penny guaranteed.
Mark Rodgers probably will want even more. And that doesn’t mean $46.5 million or $47 million per year. With the cap on the verge of mushrooming, Mark Rodgers could try to pull the Broncos across the final frontier of quarterback contracts. He could ask for a fixed percentage of the salary cap as Wilson’s annual compensation.
With the pandemic over, new TV deals kicking in, and gambling revenue expected to make it to $1 billion by the end of the decade, the salary cap shot from $182.5 million in 2021 to $208.2 million in 2022. If it increases by 10 percent per year for each of the next five seasons, it will cross the $300 million threshold by 2026.
Deshaun Watson’s $46 million salary currently takes up 22 percent of the cap. By 2026, it will consume 15 percent of the cap, assuming 10-percent annual increases.
If Wilson asks for, say, 20 percent of the total cap, he’d get $41.64 million this year, $45.8 million in 2023, $50.38 million in 2024, $55.4 million in 2025, and $60.96 million in 2026. That’s a five-year payout of $254.18 million, an average of $50.8 million per year.
If the Broncos don’t want to commit to a percentage of the cap, Mark Rodgers could just ask for those dollars, with both sides assuming the cap will grow at a rate of 10 percent annually.
However it’s structured, Mark Rodgers won’t even bat an eye at Carr’s contract. Watson’s deal is the starting point. The ending point will be the richest contract any player has ever signed in NFL history, especially given everything the Broncos gave up to get Wilson. The rest is just details.
And here’s the most important detail -- the longer the Broncos wait to do it, the more expensive it could get, if/when other quarterbacks sign new deals that push the bar even higher.
