I don’t like to say, “I told you so,” but—
Screw that. I love to say, “I told you so.” Who doesn’t love to say, “I told you so”? Anyone who claims they don’t should have to take a polygraph and then, when the test inevitably shows lying, we can all say something like, “I knew it.”
The NFL gets my latest “I told you so” for the so-called dynamic kickoff. It’s not nearly as dynamic as they’d liked, because teams are realizing there’s no reason to put the ball in play when returns easily get at or close to the 30, and possibly well beyond. So just kick the ball out of the end zone and concede the 30.
Mark Maske of the Washington Post reports that the league and the Competition Committee are “mulling” a shift of the touchback point from the 30 to the 35. The change would happen in 2025, at the earliest.
Per Maske, roughly 29 percent of kickoffs have been returned through the first 64 games of the season. While it’s an increase from last year’s number (17 percent), it’s far short of the 60-percent-or-so estimate from those who touted the new rule.
At least 24 owners would have to approve it. (After the 2024 season, the dynamic kickoff itself will require a 24-team vote anyway, since it was a one-year rule only.)
As originally proposed, the new kickoff called for a touchback at the 35. Days before the annual meetings, it was changed to the 30, primarily because they lacked the votes to get it to the 35.
Amid clear concerns that there would still be too many touchbacks, the owners could have changed it to the 35 during a special August 2024 meeting that focused on the new private-equity rule. They should have; they opted not to do so.
Before the regular season started, the NFL didn’t seem to be particularly concerned by the inevitability of a rash of touchbacks under the new rule, which removes most high-speed collisions from the kick return (except for the player with the ball and the kicker, if the play gets to that point). It seemed the league was content to accept for one year: (1) improved field position; (2) fewer instances of live returns; and (3) the ability to say, “At least we tried.”
The best news is that they won’t try to change it during the season. Changing rules during a season undermines the integrity of the season, which is why the league rarely if ever does it.