Market-level contracts present plenty of potential issues, well beyond market value. For the Cowboys and quarterback Dak Prescott, his next deal (if there is one) will be the product of push and pull as to many different factors.
For example, one sticking point in the Dak deal (we’re told) relates to the team’s escape hatch. How many years will they be tied to Prescott, in the event he regresses or they otherwise decide to make a change?
For some quarterbacks (Geno Smith, Derek Carr), it can be as short as one year. The two quarterbacks who signed long-term deals eight days ago (Joran Love and Tua Tagovailoa) have firm three-year commitments.
Whle the number the Cowboys want isn’t clear, they could be looking for a two- or three-year exit opportunity. Dak, whose current four-year deal created a very real four-year commitment, wants security if he’s going to stay.
Whether he’ll stay remains to be seen. The Cowboys could be betting the under on Dak having the kind of contract year that would drive his price even higher. With the top of the market currently at $55 million in new money APY, a solid season could prompt another team to blow the lid off the market. A disappointing year could keep the number in check.
Ultimately, it comes down to: (1) the number of teams that will be looking for veteran quarterbacks in 2025; and (2) what they’ll pay to get Prescott. We know that, after 2024, teams will decide to make changes. Possibilities when the current season ends include the Jets, Steelers, Browns (if they’re willing to eat $92 million for Deshaun Watson), Titans, Raiders, Giants, Saints, Rams, and Seahawks.
While it’s possible that the Cowboys will bite the bullet and do a deal with Dak, it ideally would have happened early enough in the offseason to drive down his cap number and to allow them to do other business. Up to and including truly going “all in” with free agents. The fact that the issue is still lingering shows how delicate and difficult it is.
Dak has had no qualms about rolling the dice in the past. When he did, he won. There’s currently no reason to think he won’t win again, even if he has to change teams.