Monday night’s Ravens-Buccaneers game provided plenty of issues to unpack and analyze. Here’s one that got no mention during the game broadcast. It got plenty of mention on Tuesday’s PFT Live.
Trailing 41-18 with 3:49 to play, the Buccaneers capped a 70-yard drive with a touchdown. The score at that point was 41-24. They went for two. The attempt failed.
And while they’d need to convert a total of two two-point conversions to erase the 23-point deficit, the choice after the deficit was cut to 17 was far more specific. A successful try — one point or two — would have made it a two-score game. A failed try left it as a three-score game.
If they’d kicked and cut the margin to 16, the next touchdown (which they scored after recovering an onside kick) could have made it a one-score game, if they’d successfully managed to score a two-point conversion.
Yes, a failed two-pointer in that spot would have left the Bucs behind by 10. But the Ravens would have been feeling a little more anxious and nervous and potentially tight once they realized that the Bucs were two yards away from making it an eight-point, one-score game.
Play it out from there, the way the game itself played out. Bucs down eight. Failed onside kick. (With three time outs and down one score, the Bucs might have kicked away.) Ravens run three times to force the Bucs to use their time outs.
Of course, Josh Johnson probably wouldn’t have been playing quarterback, so maybe the Ravens would have gotten a first down. If they hadn’t, however, the Bucs would have gotten the ball back with 1:34 to play. Down eight.
The Ravens, who have a bad habit of blowing big leads, would have been staring at the prospect of having a 24-point fourth-quarter lead completely evaporate. How tight would have they been on that last drive? How loose would the Bucs have been, knowing that they’d seized the momentum and could turn 34-10 into 41-41 and overtime?
As Devin McCourty observed on PFT Live, it would be fascinating to know how each team plans for moments like the one the Buccaneers faced after scoring the touchdown that made the score 41-24. Is going for two predetermined? Or is there someone who considers the options in real time? Who makes the decision? What input does the coach have in the directives, if any, from the team’s analytics experts? (When Devin was in New England, the answer was simple — do whatever Ernie Adams said to do.)
Regardless, the choice the Bucs faced after they cut the score to 41-24 was simple. A one-point conversion would have made it a two-score game. A failed two-point conversion would have left it as a three-score game. Why not just take the one point?
We don’t know what would have happened from that moment forward. We do know this: 41-25 feels a lot more problematic for the Ravens than 41-24. Especially after the Bucs recover the ensuing onside kick and score another touchdown that would have made it 41-31, pending the two-point try that could have cut the lead to eight.
With three timeouts left and enough time to get the ball back and score another touchdown.
