The coach of the year award usually doesn’t go to the best coach in a given year. It goes to the coach of the most surprising team of the year.
Every team has a loose set of preseason expectations. The coach of the year usually comes from the team that most significantly exceeds those expectations.
That makes it hard for certain coaches to win the award. We expect greatness. Whether it’s Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco or Andy Reid in Kansas City. Look at Matt LaFleur, who was caught in the crossfire of a dysfunctional relationship between Aaron Rodgers and the front office, took the Packers to a 13-3 record and the top seed in the AFC. But the coach of the year was Kevin Stefanski, because the Browns winning 11 games and making the playoffs (albeit as a sixth seed) was more surprising.
Should the coach of the year be the coach of the team who did better than expected? Or should the coach of the year be the best coach of the year?
Enter Dan Campbell. The 7-1 Lions had high expectations for 2024. Higher than they could exceed. So Campbell will have a hard time getting votes — even though he arguably is the best coach in the NFL.
Based on past years, someone like Dan Quinn (currently the betting favorite) or Kevin O’Connell or Jonathan Gannon will win it, because they’re coaching teams that are surprising us. That’s why Bill Belichick only won it three times. It’s why Andy Reid has only one coach of the year award, from 22 years ago. It’s why Mike Tomlin has never won it.
We expect them to do well. We expect their teams to be good. When a coach’s team surprises us, he becomes a prime candidate for coach of the year.
Maybe the voters should be thinking about it differently. Maybe it shouldn’t be the biggest surprise of the year. Maybe it should be the best coach of the year.
