We love to witness exciting moments in sports. For that reason, we want to see teams eschew overtime and go for two points, when they can. (And when they fail, someone else can deal with the aftermath.)
A key factor in the analysis is the remaining time on the clock. If there’s none, it’s the simplest analysis possible: Win or go home, or kick the can to the coin toss to start overtime.
But if there’s time left, there’s an important question. Does the opponent have enough time to get in position for a game-winning field goal?
The Chiefs did, with 27 seconds and three timeouts. And they would have been more desperate and in turn determined to make it happen.
We’ve seen it before from Patrick Mahomes. I’d never bet against it happening again.
From Tampa’s perspective, here’s the problem. They seemingly panicked when Trey Palmer was tackled at the one and called a timeout, with 30 seconds to play.
As we explained it on PFT Live, the mindset seemed to be, “Oh shit, we might not lose.” It should have been, “Hang on, there’s a way to win.”
The way to win would have been to use as much of the remaining time as possible while still preserving the chance to score. It didn’t have to be zero, but the closer to less than 10 the better — especially since Mahomes once got in field goal range during a playoff game with only 13 seconds on the clock to start the drive.
It requires confidence and discipline and calm. It requires attention to detail and strategic thinking, long before the moment arises.
Even if coach Todd Bowles planned to play for overtime, it was still foolish to leave 27 seconds for Mahomes.
These are the minor issues that separate good coaches from great coaches. Great coaches have already thought of every possible permutation, with a plan for dealing with whatever plays out. They stay calm in those moments. They make clear-headed decisions. They manipulate the circumstances in their favor.
In a close game against the Chiefs, there are few paths to the football equivalent of 270 electoral votes. For the Bucs, the only escape from the maze entailed: (1) milking the clock; (2) scoring a touchdown; (3) going for two; and (4) converting.
With 27 seconds left, the smart move was to play for overtime. The smarter move would have been to score with closer to seven seconds left.
