Rarely does an NFL season begin with a player who is under contract not present with his team. This year, two players continue their holdouts, just days before Week 1.
They also happen to be two of the best players in all of football.
Defensive end Nick Bosa, the reigning defensive player of the year, continues to be absent from the 49ers. Defensive tackle Chris Jones, who finished third in the DPOY voting, also has not reported. It is, without question, the biggest story in the entire league as the season arrives.
Players under contract rarely miss games. They love to play, and they are loath to miss game checks. It happens infrequently. Many in the media scoff at the prospect of players actually going through with an in-season holdout. Maybe that’s why the absences of Bosa and Jones aren’t attracting more attention.
In theory, the impasses could break at any moment. Many have assumed that new contracts were inevitable. As the clock keeps ticking toward Thursday night for the Chiefs and Sunday afternoon for the 49ers, the new contracts have not been finalized.
If they miss one game, how many more will they miss? Jones has suggested staying away until Week 8. For Bosa, that’s also the drop-dead deadline for getting credit for this year’s contract and nudging the fight for a new deal into next year. Both are entering the final season of their current deals. Both would presumably be franchise-tagged. For now, neither is preparing to start the season.
Usually when players sacrifice games and game checks in the short term, it doesn’t last long. In 2019, Chargers running back Melvin Gordon skipped four games. He later said he regretted doing so. In 2015, Seahawks safety Kam Chancellor ended a holdout after two games. And while some would put running back Le’Veon Bell’s full-season holdout of 2018 into the same category, he was not under contract at the time. He simply refused to accept his franchise tender from the Steelers and skipped the entire year.
Beyond the holdouts, Colts running back Jonathan Taylor arguably is holding in, citing his ankle injury as the basis for not playing. Panthers edge rusher Brian Burns also is holding in without citing any injury; he has simply declined to practice or to play until he gets his new contract, and the team has yet to take a hard line with him.
It’s an uncharacteristic cluster of players doing what they can to get more. Fans of their respective teams don’t like it. They want the best players to be present and available and happy with their salaries, even if the players believe they have earned much more than they are due to receive.
For the Colts and the Panthers, the absences have not much of a big-picture impact. Although the Panthers could win a wide-open NFC South, a lot will have to happen for them to become Super Bowl contenders. The Colts have a long way to go to compete in the AFC.
For the Chiefs and the 49ers, the stakes don’t get much higher. Early-season losses resulting directly or indirectly from uniquely disruptive defensive players not being on the field can have a major impact when the dust settles on the regular season and the No. 1 seeds are awarded.
The last holdout that harmed the early-season fortunes of a Super Bowl contender happened in 1993, when running back Emmitt Smith skipped two games and the Cowboys, after starting 0-2, caved to his demands. It worked; Smith’s return fueled another Super Bowl run, capped by his heroic performance in the final week of the regular season, when he fought through a shoulder injury to deliver the NFC East crown and the No. 1 seed in a win over the Giants.
The Chiefs open with the Lions, Jaguars, Bears, and Jets. They have the offensive firepower to win without Jones, and those teams might not have the ability to outscore Kansas City. But even if one of those expected wins becomes a loss because Jones wasn’t there to make a big play in a big spot, that extra loss could be the difference between the No. 1 seed and the No. 2 seed in an ultra-competitive conference.
The 49ers face the Steelers, Rams, Giants, and Cardinals over the first month of the season. With Bosa, that’s a recipe for 4-0. Without Bosa, 2-2 isn’t out of the question.
Again, the holdouts could end at any time. But the end likely won’t come with either player admitting that he made a mistake and showing up. Both men seem to be dug in, perhaps more entrenched than their teams ever expected them to be.
The players know the cost of staying away. It’s calculated in the form of the game checks they’ll miss, and the fines they’ve already incurred. For the teams, the cost won’t be known until they play games without them.
It represents a major risk for arguably the two best teams in the NFL. Slow starts fueled by the absences of Bosa and Jones could eventually be the difference between earning a bye week and hosting the conference championship. Which could eventually be the difference between getting to the Super Bowl and not making it there.
It’s a calculated risk for both teams to not blink. It’s a calculated risk for both players to not show up. The better solution for all involved would be to get something worked out.
But even if both deals are done tonight, the Chiefs have three days to get Jones ready. The 49ers have six days to get Bosa up to speed for the season opener. As a practical matter, midnight already has passed as to the proposition of both bringing the players back into the fold and having them ready for the first game that counts.
How many games that count will each player miss? It’s a story that, barring new contracts, will play out one week at a time, into late October.
