By defeating the Bills 22-9 on Thursday night, the Dolphins moved into the No. 7 seed in the AFC. Their upcoming schedule, coupled with their solid résumé, would suggest they should be no worse than a serious wild-card contender the rest of the way.
The victory improved Miami’s record to 6-4, which includes a 5-2 mark vs. AFC foes. With conference record a key tiebreaker, the Dolphins’ ability to take care of business inside the AFC could end up being a major asset.
The win also gives the Dolphins some cushion entering next Sunday’s matchup at 7-2 Denver. The Dolphins will be significant underdogs against the Broncos, who haven’t lost at home in almost a year. Also, the Dolphins won’t be favored in the rematch with the Patriots in New England, even after winning the first meeting in Miami. The Dolphins’ third-toughest game remaining — a December 7 meeting with visiting Baltimore — could have a significant impact on the wild-card race.
However, the Dolphins draw the 2-8 Jets twice in December, and they also face Minnesota at home. Miami will be favored to win all three games. If the Dolphins can hit that trifecta and sneak out a win against the Denver-New England-Baltimore trio, they will be 10-6 overall and 8-4 in the AFC. There have been worse hands with which to see the river card fall.
The 5-5 Bills, on the other hand, are in a tough spot. Their conference record (2-5) is weak, and they have games against the Broncos, Packers and Patriots in the final four weeks. They can, however, enter the final month with a puncher’s chance if they defeat the Jets and Browns in Buffalo to close out November.
But make no mistake: the Bills are going to have to be stellar down the stretch to crack the playoffs. They lose head-to-head tiebreakers with the Chargers, Chiefs and Texans. And by failing to defeat the Dolphins, they missed a chance at sweeping the season series.
As we turn our attention to the bulk of the Week 11 slate, here’s how the AFC’s top 12 playoff contenders would be seeded if the postseason started today. For reference, here are the NFL’s standings and tiebreaking rules.
THE BIG SIX
1. New England Patriots (7-2, .778). AFC East leader. Earns first-round bye, home-field advantage. Holds head-to-head tiebreaker over Denver.
2. Denver Broncos (7-2, .778). AFC West leader. Earns first-round bye.
3. Indianapolis Colts (6-3, .667). AFC South leader. Hosts Bengals in wild-card game. Seeded ahead of Browns on basis of better AFC record than Cleveland (5-2 vs. 4-3).
4. Cleveland Browns (6-3, .667). AFC North leader. Hosts Chiefs in wild-card game.
5. Kansas City Chiefs (6-3, .667). Wild card No. 1.
6. Cincinnati Bengals (5-3-1, .611). Wild card No. 2.
JUST MISSING
7. Miami Dolphins (6-4, .600). Ranks ahead of Pittsburgh on basis of better AFC record (5-2 vs. 5-3).
8. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4, .600). Ranks ahead of Baltimore on basis of better division record (2-2 vs. 2-3).
9. Baltimore Ravens (6-4, .600). Has 3-4 AFC record.
10. San Diego Chargers (5-4, .556).
11. Buffalo Bills (5-5, .500).
12. Houston Texans (4-5, .444).
