We’ve recently taken a look at the coaches on the hot seat for 2025. This week, a reader asked the same question as it relates to quarterbacks.
Plenty of them are feeling the heat, or should be, this season. Let’s take a look at each spot, based on the loose arrangement of the conferences and divisions that has been tattooed onto my brain.
Justin Fields, Jets: His contract has $10 million in guarantees that spill into 2026. That’s not enough to guarantee him two years as the starter. He needs to do enough in 2025 to earn 2026 — and beyond.
Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins: His contract guarantees his pay through 2026. If the Dolphins fall flat and change coaches, the next coach likely will want a fresh start at quarterback. While the cap charges will complicate a split before 2027, every high-end quarterback contract eventually leads to a big cap charge when the relationship ends. The next coach (and the next G.M., if owner Stephen Ross cleans house) may want to rip the Band-Aid off in one motion.
Aaron Rodgers, Steelers: He says he’s pretty sure this is his last year. If he doesn’t play well enough for the Steelers in 2025 and if he wants to keep playing in 2026, the Steelers may give him the same cold shoulder that Russell Wilson got after 2024.
All Browns quarterbacks: With Jacksonville’s first-round pick in their back pocket, the Browns could be in position to get a future franchise quarterback in next year’s draft. That raises the stakes for every quarterback currently on the Cleveland roster. Because there’s a chance none of them will be the starter in 2026.
Daniel Jones and Anthony Richardson, Colts: It already feels like Jones will be the Week 1 starter. He’ll then have a chance to lock the revolving door the Colts have had since Andrew Luck retired. If he doesn’t, the Colts will be looking elsewhere in 2026. As to Richardson, his best play is to play better than he ever has, if and when he gets the chance.
Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars: Every new coach wants his own quarterback, except when the coach inherits a true franchise quarterback. But Tony Dungy landing with Peyton Manning doesn’t happen very often. And it’s not clear whether Lawrence is a short-list franchise quarterback. He was on track to be one as of 2022. The past two years haven’t been good enough, long-term contract notwithstanding. What do coach Liam Coen and G.M. James Gladstone want? If Lawrence doesn’t play better in 2025 than he did in 2024, Lawrence and everyone else may find out in 2026.
Geno Smith, Raiders: He’s being mentioned simply to say he’s not on the hot seat. He has $18.5 million in guarantees for 2026, and his close ties to Pete Carroll will keep Smith around for at least two years. (Unless, of course, a certain minority owner decides otherwise.)
Dak Prescott, Cowboys: He’s probably not on the hot seat, because his $60 million per year contract would wreak havoc on the salary cap if the Cowboys were to cut or trade him (yes, he has a no-trade clause, but he can waive it) in 2026. The complication for the Cowboys is that his $45 million salary for 2027 becomes fully guaranteed on the fifth day of the 2026 league year. They’re basically stuck — all because they waited too long to give him his second contract, and then waited too long to give him his third contract.
Russell Wilson, Giants: If he’s the Week 1 starter (if Jaxson Dart lives up to his first-round draft stock, Wilson shouldn’t be), the clock will be ticking. Immediately. In 2004, the Giants benched Kurt Warner after nine games for Eli Manning, even though the Giants were 5-4 at the time. When Dart is ready, Dart will play. Even if Wilson makes it through 2025 without getting benched, he’ll have to do plenty to keep Dart on the sideline for 2026.
Jordan Love, Packers: He’s not on the hot seat per se, but he needs to play better in 2025 than he did in 2024. If not, he will be on the hot seat in 2026. The wild card in Green Bay is new CEO Ed Policy, who operates as the de facto owner of the team.
J.J. McCarthy, Vikings: He’s getting his shot to play, after a knee injury wiped out his rookie season. Anything other than an outright disaster will ensure his status for 2026. At worst, he’d have to compete with a more established veteran next year.
Tyler Shough, Saints: He’ll need to do enough in 2025 to earn the chance to do well enough in 2026 to get the Saints to not pursue the grandson of Archie Manning in 2027. (And, yes, I think Arch Manning will spend two years as a college starter before entering the draft.)
Bryce Young, Panthers: In year three, he needs to continue the growth he showed late in the 2024 season, in order to secure a fourth season, the fifth-year option, and ideally (for him) a second contract.
Kyler Murray, Cardinals: His contract gives him two more years of financial security. But this is the team that drafted Murray a year after using the 10th overall pick on Josh Rosen (not Lamar Jackson). So who knows what the Cardinals will do if Murray doesn’t propel the team into contention this year?
Sam Darnold, Seahawks: He has a one-year deal, as a practical matter. And the Seahawks seem to really like rookie Jalen Milroe. Darnold will need to play very well to secure his status for 2026.
Matthew Stafford, Rams: It’s not the “hot seat” as much as it’s a mutual understanding that player and team are taking things one year at a time. After the season, both sides will have to recommit. Whether the Rams will want to do that depends on how Stafford plays in 2025, and on their other options for staffing the position in 2026.
That’s a lot of names. But it’s no surprise. There aren’t many true, unquestioned, year-after-year franchise quarterbacks. And the teams that don’t have one are always hoping to find one.
It has created more quarterback movement in recent years than ever before. Plenty of the names listed above will be on the move in 2026.
Hall of Fame quarterback Peyton Manning watched his nephew, Texas quarterback Arch Manning, at the recent Manning Passing Academy and came away impressed — and also impressed by some of the other college quarterbacks on the field.
Manning told Pat McAfee that both Arch Manning and LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier showed off elite arms at the Manning camp.
“I’m excited to watch Arch play,” Manning said. “He threw the ball really well at the camp. He and Garrett Nussmeier at our three throwing expeditions really threw the ball well — all the quarterbacks throw the ball well. It’s impressive. They make throws that I can’t even think about making. Arch made a throw the other day that I’d have to hit the cutoff man to get the ball to the actual receiver.”
Peyton Manning also mentioned South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers as a standout at the Manning Passing Academy. Arch Manning is currently the betting favorite to be the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL draft, followed by Penn State quarterback Drew Allar, then Nussmeier, then Sellers.
Colts receiver Alec Pierce was one of the most explosive players in the league in 2024, finishing with the NFL lead of 22.3 yards per reception.
Having completed his third season, the 2022 second-round pick is eligible for an extension. But according to Stephen Holder of ESPN, the Colts and Pierce’s representation are not currently engaged in contract talks.
Pierce recently noted he’s not focused on a potential new deal.
“I like to take a very day-to-day approach with things,” Pierce said, via Holder. “I don’t really think too far in advance.
“That’s why I’ve got agents,” Pierce added. “They focus on that type of stuff and what’s coming up in the short term.”
Pierce has not been helped by Indianapolis’ inconsistent quarterback play over the course of his career. He played with the combination of Matt Ryan, Sam Ehlinger, and Nick Foles in his rookie season. Then he had Anthony Richardson’s injury-shortened rookie year, with Gardner Minshew taking the vast majority of starts. Last year, Richardson started 11 games with Joe Flacco starting the remaining six.
Pierce isn’t likely to be Indianapolis’ No. 1 option this season, with Michael Pittman continuing in that role. He also could see his share of targets go down given No. 14 overall pick Tyler Warren’s presence as a tight end.
But Pierce has displayed his ability to be explosive. Whether it’s with the Colts or as a free agent in 2026, he’s primed to cash in with a solid payday if he continues to play well in 2025.
The death of longtime Colts owner Jim Irsay had an impact in the locker room, and defensive captain Zaire Franklin says he and his teammates want to honor Irsay with their play.
Franklin said on SiriusXM NFL Radio that Irsay’s death put the Colts’ purpose for 2025 into focus: They want to play in a way that would make Irsay proud.
“I would really just say we’re a team with a purpose,” Franklin said. “With the passing of Jim Irsay, a great man who’s done not only so much for the city, but the state of Indiana, this season, and just honoring his legacy and continuing to bring his dream to fruition, is definitely extreme motivation. It’s one of those things that gets everybody on the same page where everybody is fighting and pulling in the same direction, for the same purpose.”
The Colts finished 8-9 last season, but Franklin looks at that team as a couple plays away from being a playoff team. And he says this year’s team should be better. And playing with some extra motivation.
During Thursday’s episode of #PFTPM, someone asked for a list of the coaches on the hot seat.
I started to rattle off names before deciding to take the issue under advisement, Wapner-style, until Friday’s episode. And then I nearly forgot to do it.
During my extensive prep (i.e., none whatsoever) for Friday’s show, I came up with a list of five and counted them down. Or up. If I simply wanted to push you to the attached video, I’d say, “They’re in the attached video.” But that’s not my style. Especially when I need to type enough words to justify a full post.
So here they are, from No. 5 to No. 1. And this is my own assessment of the broader, 32-team situation. I’m not reporting anything. I’m identifying the guys whom I believe are under the biggest cloud of uncertainty as the season approaches.
5. Panthers coach Dave Canales.
There’s a glass-half-full vibe around the Panthers, given that they finished relatively strong in 2024 after a disastrous start. If that comes to fruition for the 2025 Panthers, all will be well.
If the wheels come off, it could spell doom for Canales, who enters his second season on the job.
The key becomes owner David Tepper. Will the hard-charging, results-demanding, drink-throwing (at least once) owner tolerate, say, a 4-13 finish?
It won’t be easy for Canales, if that happens. Mainly because of the guy who signs the checks, and who issues the pink slips.
[Editor’s note: In a prior version of this story, I said Canales is entering his third season. I had my head up my ass. Sorry. It’s year two. Which doesn’t matter for an owner who fired his last coach, Frank Reich, during year one.]
4. Cowboys coach Brian Schottenheimer.
The key to knowing Schottenheimer’s job security is to know whether and to what extent he has guaranteed money beyond 2025.
Usually, head coaches enjoy at least three years of guarantees. But there’s nothing usual about the hiring of Brian Schottenheimer.
He was on exactly zero teams’ short lists during the latest hiring cycle. For the Cowboys, who wanted to have offensive continuity for quarterback Dak Prescott, it was either Schottenheimer or Eagles offensive coordinator (new Saints coach) Kellen Moore. Schottenheimer came cheaper.
How cheap? So cheap that there would be no buyout if he’s fired after one year?
If so, Schottenheimer could need to do enough in 2025 to earn his employment for 2026.
3. Colts coach Shane Steichen.
Through two seasons, Steichen is 17-17 with no playoff appearances. His non-interim predecessor, Frank Reich, went 40-33-1 with a pair of playoff berths and was abruptly fired.
The swing and miss (so far) on quarterback Anthony Richardson is on Steichen’s record. The failure to develop Richardson is on Steichen’s resume.
As the 2024 season ended, there was a haze of confusion as to whether big changes would be made in Indianapolis. Now that an ownership change has happened following the passing of Jim Irsay, it remains to be seen how Carlie Irsay-Gordon will run the team.
And, most importantly, whether she’ll want to hire a coach of her own after her first season in charge.
How the team performs in 2025 becomes a massive factor in resolving what currently is a major unknown. Which puts pressure on Steichen to win enough games to make the answer an obvious “yes.”
2. Giants coach Brian Daboll.
On one day, Giants co-owner John Mara said he’d be sticking with G.M. Joe Schoen and coach Brian Daboll. Then, Mara said he’s running out of patience.
It’s a mixed message to Daboll as to the potential impact of the upcoming season, and it necessarily puts him on the hot seat.
It shouldn’t. The Giants are in a difficult division. They need plenty of help from a talent standpoint. Mara should give his current regime more time.
And not just a commitment that ultimately feels temporary. That’s precisely how it feels in New York.
1. Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel.
Even at a time when everyone is 0-0 and all teams have plausible hope, it feels like the window has closed for a Dolphins team that could end up flying straight into the glass in 2025.
There’s dysfunction. There’s turmoil. There’s an unsettled situation with a star player who received a market-level contract in September 2024, and another star player who has said he wants out and who may feel the same way all over again if the 2025 season starts poorly.
It all comes back to Tua Tagovailoa. Can he play well? Can he stay healthy enough to play well?
Can the Dolphins win enough games to make it to the playoffs?
Along the way, can they shed the narrative (as confirmed by linebacker Jordyn Brooks) that they go soft as the weather turns cold?
Ultimately, it comes down to whether Stephen Ross will demand a major change if 2025 ends up being another disappointing season.
Thirty years ago, the late Jets owner Leon Hess fired Pete Carroll after one season by saying this, “I’m 80 years old. I want results now.”
Stephen Ross is five years older than Hess was when he said that.
The video mentions a few others who didn’t make the top five. I’ll defer to it for those. Mainly because I got to 800 words without having to do that.
Anthony Richardson offered a positive update on his sore shoulder.
The Colts quarterback said over the weekend that he is ready to participate in the start of training camp.
The team reports July 22.
“I’m all good,” Richardson told Zach Goodall of 247 Sports while at community events in Gainesville, Florida. “Not really even a bump in the road. I feel like I tripped. I fell. Just got back up and hit the ground running again.”
Earlier this month, Colts coach Shane Steichen would not provide a firm timetable for Richardson’s return after the quarterback’s right shoulder kept him sidelined for organized team activities and the mandatory minicamp.
Richardson underwent surgery to repair the AC joint in his right shoulder his rookie season. He experienced soreness in the throwing shoulder during the offseason program and traveled to Los Angeles to see Dr. Neal ElAttrache, who performed Richardson’s surgery in 2023.
Rest was prescribed for Richardson’s recovery.
Richardson, the fourth overall pick in 2023, is competing with Daniel Jones for the starting job.
Jim Irsay will be the next member of the Colts’ Ring of Honor.
The Colts will induct Irsay, their longtime owner who died on Mary 21, before their Week One game against the Dolphins.
“There was no bigger advocate for the Colts, the NFL, the city of Indianapolis and the state of Indiana than our dad, Jim Irsay,” Irsay’s daughters, Carlie Irsay-Gordon, Casey Foyt and Kalen Jackson, said in a joint statement. “It’s only fitting that he now joins the other amazing Colts legends in our Ring of Honor who contributed so much to our franchise and our community over the past four decades.”
Irsay inherited the team from his father, Robert Irsay, who bought the Colts franchise in 1972 and died in 1997. Jim Irsay now joins his father among the members of the team’s Ring of Honor.
The Colts announced Irsay’s spot in the Ring of Honor today on what would have been his 66th birthday.
With Anthony Richardson’s shoulder issue sidelining him until some point during training camp, Daniel Jones has an opportunity to solidify himself as the frontrunner in the Colts’ quarterback competition.
But asked about that on the last day of Indianapolis’ minicamp, Jones deflected, not making too much out of it.
“I think it’s like you would in any situation, just trying to prepare and grow with it every day,” Jones said in his press conference. “I’ve got a lot of work to do, just learning this offense and getting used to it, so I’m trying to focus as much on that and then playing good football when I’m on the field at practice.”
Jones, 28, was the No. 6 overall pick in 2019 and has seen just middling success with the Giants — winning just three games in 16 starts over the last two seasons. But he has made a positive impression with his new team, displaying some comfort in the offense during the offseason program.
“Building up reps, the preparation we do in the meeting room, the installs, being detailed and specific about our reads,” Jones said of what’s enabled him to be decisive in getting the ball out. “Where we need to be looking at where the receivers are going to be — how we’re seeing certain looks. So, I’ve really enjoyed that part of the learning process, and feel like that’s helped on the field. But I’ll continue to learn and grow in my understanding of this offense, and how to execute it. But yeah, I think it’s been a productive spring from that standpoint.”
Still, with Richardson going down, Jones noted that he needs to be ready, regardless of whether another quarterback is available.
“Yeah. I mean, I think that’s always got to be your approach, really at any position in the NFL — just preparing to play and be ready to go,” Jones said. “Like I said, there’s been plenty to work on and stay busy with from my standpoint, and learning the offense and getting here, learning the guys, building relationships with everyone. There’s been plenty to do, so I’ve just been trying to focus on that.”
In 10 games for the Giants last year, Jones completed 63.3 percent of his passes for 2,070 yards with eight touchdowns and seven interceptions.
With Anthony Richardson sidelined by a shoulder issue, Daniel Jones got a leg up in the competition between the two quarterbacks to end the offseason program.
Jones, 28, signed a one-year deal with the Colts in March. On Thursday, Steichen praised Jones for the way he handled OTAs and minicamp.
“Very pleased with what we got right now. He’s been doing a hell of a job,” Steichen said in his press conference, via transcript from the team. “Really smart football player. Learned the offense very quickly, making really good decisions out there through OTAs. Obviously, want to carry that over to training camp, but he’s done a really good job. Great command in the huddle. Ultimate pro.
“[H]e’s a veteran player,” Steichen added. “Obviously, like I said, very intelligent. He works at it, grinds at it. So not surprised on how he’s picked up the offense. Obviously, those meetings we have in the quarterback room with those guys — the conversations that we have, they’ve been really good. So been very pleased with him.”
Jones started 69 games for the Giants over six seasons before New York released him last November. Now, Jones has a chance at a fresh start with Indianapolis after his stint with Minnesota and has a real shot to capture the Colts’ QB1 job in training camp.
The Colts had tight end Tyler Warren fall into their lap during this year’s draft and selected him at No. 14 overall.
The pick filled a need and added a potential explosive playmaker to an Indianapolis offense that may be supporting a new quarterback in 2025.
So far, the early returns on Warren have been positive, according to head coach Shane Steichen.
“I think the great thing about him — very smart football player. He picks up things very quickly,” Steichen said in his Tuesday press conference. “You tell him once, he’s got a good feel for it. And even if he’s got to correct something, he’s got a great mindset of getting it corrected on the next time he goes out there.
“He’s been phenomenal so far. Obviously, I know we don’t have pads on, but his movement skills, great feel, great instincts. It’ll be good this week to get another week of that work in, and then going into training camp will be great for him.”
For his part, Warren told reporters that he’s felt his comfort with the offense grow over the course of the offseason program.
“I think it’s a lot better being here a few weeks in a row — like you said, stack the days on top and keep learning so it’s not learning something new and going out that day,” Warren said on Tuesday, via transcript from the team. “It’s some repeat stuff now so it’s a lot more comfortable than when we first got here and kind of just thrown into the fire.”
While there’s a long way to go before Week 1, Warren seems to be adapting well to his first pro offense. We’ll see how that translates to games in the fall.
