This is one of those stories that roughly two percent of you will care about. That two percent will find it fascinating.
For years, we’ve pointed out the fiction that is the “new-money” analysis for contracts. (To the dismay of plenty of agents.) The approach, pushed by agents and accepted without scrutiny by the insiders to whom the agents spoon feed scoops and signings, transmogrifies new contracts into something they’re not — all in the name of making the new contract look better.
Here’s how it works. Whenever a player who has one or more years left on his contract gets a new deal that lasts longer than the current one, it’s called an extension. It’s not an extension. It’s a new contract.
There are no extensions, in the technical or literal sense, of NFL contracts. In every case, the old contract gets torn up and disregarded. A new contract takes its place.
I know this assertion will be met with aggressive disagreement from some (especially in the cesspool now known as X, as in “X marks the spot of the cesspool”). The truth, based on hundreds of contracts I’ve seen over the past 25 years, is that there are no extensions. All contracts are new contracts that wipe out the old contracts.
Calling a new contract an “extension” bolsters the phony-baloney view that the “new money” added to the prior deal has meaning. Here’s an example, in the simplest possible terms.
Player A has a contract with two years left, at $5 million per year. That’s $10 million in what eventually will be called “old money.” He gets a new contract that covers four years, at $10 million per year. It’s now a four-year, $40 million contract with a $10 million annual average, right?
Wrong. The “new money” is the $40 million he’s due to make now minus the $10 million he was supposed to earn. (That’s $30 million for the math-impaired, like me.) And since the deal is two years longer, there are two new years. So with an extra $30 million on a deal that has two new years, the “new-money” average is $15 million per year. Which looks a lot better, obviously, than $10 million per year.
The problem is that contracts are reported, and thus ranked, based on new money. Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott signed in September 2024 a new contract with four new years and $240 million in “new money.” So the “new-money” average is $60 million per year. But it was really a five-year, $269 million contract, since he was due to make $29 million in the final year of his existing contract. The average of the new deal is $53.8 million per year.
Enter Josh Allen. He has a new six-year contract, with a total value of $330 million. The average is $55 million from signing.
But Prescott’s deal is listed on the APY rankings as having a $60 million annual value, and Allen’s is listed as having a $55 million annual value. That’s not an apples-to-apples comparison. Allen’s deal is worth $55 million per year from signing; Prescotts is worth $53.8 million per year from signing.
The “new-money” fiction pushes Prescott to $60 million per year. As Charles Robinson of Yahoo Sports has noticed, the “new-money” average for Allen is higher. Much higher. Much, much higher. It’s more than $87 million per year.
Here’s our full breakdown of the Josh Allen deal. At $55 million per year over six year he’s getting a $65.445 million boost over what he was supposed to make over the next four years, and $110 million for the final two. That works out to “new money” of $175.446 million. So with two new years and $175.446 million, that’s a “new-money” average of $87.723 million.
It’s jaw-dropping. But it hardly means that Allen should now be listed as having an $87.723 million per year contract. However, if we’re going to say Prescott is making $60 million per year in “new money,” we also need to say Allen is making $87.723 million.
Here’s the far better approach: Kill the “new-money” bullshit. A new contract is worth whatever the new contract is worth. Old contract is gone, new contract takes its place.
That’s how the Bills will surely try to explain this one. They tore up the remaining four years of Allen’s deal, and they replaced it with a brand-new, six-year contract. And that would make sense, if that wasn’t the same thing that happens for EVERY new contract with a longer duration than the one it replaced.
The same thing happened with Deshaun Watson’s contract in 2022. He was due to make, as noted by Joel Corry of CBS Sports, $136 million over the four years left on his deal with the Texans. After the Browns traded for Watson, they replaced the existing contract with a five-year, $230 million deal. That’s $94 million in new money with one new year on the deal — which translates to a new-money average of $94 million.
For some reason, certain contracts get excluded from the “new-money” analysis. Why? Because they cause the “new-money” fiction to collapse upon itself.
As it should.
So if Dak Prescott is making $60 million per year, then Allen is making $87.723 million per year — and Watson is making $94 million. If that sounds wrong, it should. And it’s because the “new-money” average is bogus. Instead, when it leads to extreme and outrageous results, it conveniently gets ignored.
Please, NFL, NFLPA, agents, reporters, and fans, let’s ditch the “new-money” analysis. If not, let’s fully embrace it. Including those situations (like Allen’s and Watson’s) where the numbers prove how meaningless the entire exercise is.
Cooper Kupp had a short stint in free agency. For plenty of other big-name receivers on the wrong side of 30, the wait continues.
Our list of top 100 free agents has three of them — Amari Cooper, Stefon Diggs, and Keenan Allen. Others still available include Brandin Cooks and Tyler Lockett.
There are plenty of pass-catchers without objectively big names (and not necessarily over 3o), too. That list includes the likes of Diontae Johnson, Robert Woods, Nelson Agholor, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Tyler Boyd, and Mecole Hardman.
The fact that so many receivers are available at this point is a sign that the position is becoming in some respects like running back. Every year, young, cheap, healthy, and productive options are available in the draft class.
It’s also likely that plenty of the names listed above (especially the biggest ones) need to have their expectations softened by the phone not ringing.
Really, has there been any buzz about Cooper or Diggs or Allen or Cooks or Lockett? And it’s not for lack of interest in veteran receivers; a lot of them have been signed this week.
Cupp, Davante Adams, and Chris Godwin are the biggest names to get significant deals this week. Others who landed fairly quick contracts include Darius Slayton, Josh Palmer, Dyami Brown, Demarcus Robinson, Mack Hollins, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Ashton Dulin, Mike Williams, Trent Sherfield, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Sterling Shepard, Tim Patrick, Braxton Berrios, Dante Pettis, and more.
Even DeAndre Hopkins has gotten signed. Yes, it was a one-year, $5 million deal. But he pounced on the opportunity when it emerged.
That might be the biggest reason why some of the biggest names at the position are still out there. They possibly have had interest, but the numbers might be much lower than they’d like.
The numbers likely won’t get much better. At this point, the risk is that there simply won’t be roster spots by the time they decide to take whatever they can get.
The Bills signed Michael Hoecht and Larry Ogunjobi as free agents this week, but neither of them will be able to help the defensive line for the early part of the 2025 season.
Bills General Manager Brandon Beane told reporters at a Friday press conference that both players are facing six-game suspensions due to violations of the NFL’s performance-enhancing drug policy. Both players will be able to participate in offseason workouts and training camp before serving those suspensions.
Beane said, via multiple reporters, that the team was aware of Hoecht’s suspension when they signed him, but that they were not aware of Ogunjobi’s ban.
Greg Rousseau, Daquan Jones, Ed Oliver, Joey Bosa, A.J. Epenesa, DeWayne Carter, Javon Solomon, Zion Logue, and Branson Deen are the other Bills defensive linemen.
On Sunday, the Bills ripped up the four years left on quarterback Josh Allen’s contract and replaced it with a new, record-setting, $330 million, six-year deal.
The full details are now available. Here they are, per a source with knowledge of the terms.
1. Signing bonus: $56.745 million.
2. 2025 base salary: $1.255 million, fully guaranteed.
3. 2026 workout bonus: $500,000.
4. 2026 option bonus: $38 million, fully guaranteed.
5. 2026 base salary: $16.5 million, fully guaranteed.
6. 2027 workout bonus: $500,000.
7. 2027 option bonus: $38.5 million, $20.5 million of which is fully guaranteed at signing and the remaining $18 million becomes guaranteed for injury at signing but fully guaranteed as of March 2026.
8. 2027 base salary: $14 million, fully guaranteed.
9. 2028 workout bonus: $500,000.
10. 2028 option bonus: $35 million, guaranteed for injury at signing and fully guaranteed as of March 2027.
11. 2028 base salary: $18.5 million, guaranteed for injury at signing and fully guaranteed as of March 2027.
12. 2029 workout bonus: $500,000.
13. 2029 roster bonus: $35 million, $31.5 million of which is guaranteed for injury; $14 million becomes fully guaranteed in March 2028 and $17.5 million becomes fully guaranteed/earned in March 2029.
14. 2029 base salary: $17 million.
15. 2030 workout bonus: $500,000.
16. 2030 roster bonus: $30 million.
17. 2030 base salary: $27 million.
The deal has $147 million fully guaranteed at signing, a record for all contracts except for the Deshaun Watson albatross deal ($230 million over five years).
It has the largest total guarantee (full and injury) in NFL history — $230 million. It’s also the highest annual average from signing at $55 million.
As previously noted, the four-year cash flow is a record $220 million.
The contract also increases Allen’s existing pay over the next four years by $65.445 million, with two new years added to the prior contract.
The rolling guarantees result in Allen’s full guarantee moving to $165 million by March 2026, $218.5 million by March 2027, and $232.5 million by March 2028.
Joey Bosa’s been a productive pass rusher when healthy during his NFL career, but he hasn’t been healthy enough to maximize his impact.
Bosa missed 23 regular season games over his final three seasons with the Chargers and his frequent injuries helped contribute to his release earlier this month. They didn’t keep the Bills from signing the edge rusher to a contract this week, however.
During a Friday press conference, Bills General Manager Brandon Beane noted that Bosa only played 41 percent of the Chargers’ snaps while appearing in 14 games last season and that the Bills will also have a plan “keep him fresh” throughout the year with eyes on the postseason.
The Bills released Von Miller before signing Bosa and there was similar talk about a plan to keep him strong all season long when he joined the team in 2022. Miller missed 15 regular season games while producing 14 sacks in his three years in Buffalo and he didn’t have a sack in any of the team’s postseason trips. They’ll be hoping for a bigger return on any plan for Bosa.
The Bills have added an offensive lineman.
Buffalo announced the club has signed guard Kendrick Green to a one-year deal.
Green, 26, spent the last two seasons with the Texans. He appeared in four games in 2023 and all 17 in 2024 with one start. He was on the field for 178 offensive snaps and 79 special teams snaps.
A third-round pick in 2021, Green started 16 games as a rookie for the Steelers. But in 2022 he did not earn a starting job and was inactive for all 17 games.
The Bills are bringing back a familiar face.
Per Mike Garafolo of NFL Media, Buffalo has agreed to sign cornerback Dane Jackson to a one-year deal.
Jackson, 28, was a Bills seventh-round pick in 2020 and spent his first four seasons with the franchise. He signed with the Panthers as a free agent last season and appeared in nine games in 2024.
But before his stint with Carolina, Jackson appeared in 52 games with 28 starts for Buffalo over his first fours years. In 61 career games with 31 starts, Jackson has tallied 30 passes defensed with three interceptions.
The Bills are set to add another player to their receiving corps.
The agents for Laviska Shenault announced that their client has agreed to terms on a contract with the reigning AFC East champs.
Shenault played one game for the Chargers and 11 games for the Seahawks during the 2024 season. He caught five passes for Seattle and returned a kickoff 97 yards for a touchdown.
Shenault was a 2020 second-round pick by the Jaguars and he has also played for the Panthers. He has 163 catches for 1,587 yards and six touchdowns for his career.
The Bills have also agreed to terms with Josh Palmer and have Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, and Curtis Samuel returning from their 2024 receiver group.
The Texans have a one-year agreement with veteran defensive end Casey Toohill, his agency announced Wednesday night.
Toohill, 28, spent last season with the Bills. He played 14 games and totaled 20 tackles, a sack, a fumble recovery and a pass defensed.
The Eagles made Toohill a seventh-round pick in 2020, and he played one game for Philadelphia before his release. The Commanders claimed him.
He stayed with Washington through the 2023 season before leaving for Buffalo.
In his career, Toohill has recorded 100 tackles, eight sacks, 21 quarterback hits and 11 tackles for losses with three forced fumbles.
The Cowboys needed cornerback help with slot corner Jourdan Lewis signing with the Jaguars and outside corner Trevon Diggs’ 2025 season in doubt after left knee surgery Jan. 23. They got cornerback help Wednesday ahead of the official start of free agency.
The Cowboys sent a 2025 fifth-round pick and a 2026 seventh-round pick to the Bills for Kaiir Elam and a 2025 sixth-round pick, the teams confirmed.
Elam’s 2025 cap hit is $2.5 million, and they have the fifth-year option for 2026 of $12.7 million if they choose to exercise it.
The Bills made Elam the 23rd overall pick in 2022, but he has started only 12 games in three seasons. He has appeared in 29 games.
Elam has totaled 81 tackles, two interceptions and six passes defensed in his career.
In 2024, Elam 26 tackles, two passes defensed and a fumble recovery.
