The Chiefs clinched the No. 1 seed in the AFC on Christmas Day. Here’s how the rest of the playoff picture looks after Thursday night of Week 17:
NFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION LEADERS
1. Detroit Lions (13-2): Clinched a playoff berth.
2. Philadelphia Eagles (12-3): Clinched a playoff berth.
3. Los Angeles Rams (9-6): Could clinch the NFC West as soon as Sunday with a win and some help.
4. Atlanta Falcons (8-7): Own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Buccaneers.
WILD CARDS
5. Minnesota Vikings (13-2): Clinched a playoff berth, still in contention for the No. 1 seed.
6. Green Bay Packers (11-4): Getting swept by the Lions and losing to the Vikings takes them out of NFC North contention, even though they’re 11-1 otherwise.
7. Washington Commanders (10-5): Stayed alive in the NFC East by beating the Eagles.
OUTSIDE LOOKING IN
8. Seattle Seahawks (9-7): Stayed alive with win over Bears.
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7): Loss to the Cowboys knocked them out of playoff position, for now.
10. Dallas Cowboys (7-8): Mathematically eliminated.
11. Arizona Cardinals (7-8): Mathematically eliminated.
12. San Francisco 49ers (6-9): Mathematically eliminated.
13. New Orleans Saints (5-10): Mathematically eliminated.
14. Carolina Panthers (4-11): Mathematically eliminated.
15. Chicago Bears (4-12): Mathematically eliminated.
16. New York Giants (2-13): Mathematically eliminated.
AFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION LEADERS
1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1): Clinched the No. 1 seed, first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.
2. Buffalo Bills (12-3): Clinched the AFC East.
3. Baltimore Ravens (11-5): Clinched a playoff berth.
4. Houston Texans (9-7): Clinched the AFC South and the No. 4 seed in the playoffs.
WILD CARDS
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6): Clinched a playoff berth.
6. Los Angeles Chargers (9-6): Have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Broncos.
7. Denver Broncos (9-6): The loss to the Chargers hurt, but they’re still on the cusp of a wild card berth.
OUTSIDE LOOKING IN
8. Indianapolis Colts (7-8): Slim wild card hopes.
9. Miami Dolphins (7-8): Even slimmer wild card hopes.
10. Cincinnati Bengals (7-8): The slimmest of wild card hopes.
11. New York Jets (4-11): Mathematically eliminated.
12. Cleveland Browns (3-12): Mathematically eliminated.
13. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12): Mathematically eliminated.
14. Tennessee Titans (3-12): Mathematically eliminated.
15. Las Vegas Raiders (3-12): Mathematically eliminated.
16. New England Patriots (3-12): Mathematically eliminated.
Clinching Scenarios
AFC
CLINCHED:
Kansas City Chiefs (14-1) – AFC No. 1 seed
Buffalo Bills (12-3) – AFC East
Houston Texans (9-6) – AFC South
Baltimore Ravens (10-5) – playoff berth
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5) – playoff berth
Denver Broncos (9-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-8); Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET, NFL Network
Denver clinches a playoff berth with:
- DEN win or tie
Los Angeles Chargers (9-6) at New England Patriots (3-12); Saturday, 1 p.m. ET, NFL Network
Los Angeles clinches a playoff berth with:
- LAC win or tie
- MIA loss or tie + IND loss or tie
NFC
CLINCHED:
Detroit Lions (13-2) – playoff berth
Green Bay Packers (11-4) – playoff berth
Minnesota Vikings (13-2) – playoff berth
Philadelphia Eagles (12-3) – playoff berth
Detroit Lions (13-2) at San Francisco 49ers (6-9); Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC
Detroit clinches NFC North division title and the NFC’s No. 1 seed, lone first-round bye and home-field advantage with:
- DET win + MIN loss
Philadelphia Eagles (12-3) vs. Dallas Cowboys (7-8); Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
Philadelphia clinches NFC East division title with:
- PHI win or tie
- WAS loss or tie
Atlanta Falcons (8-7) at Washington Commanders (10-5); Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
Atlanta clinches NFC South division title with:
- ATL win + TB loss
Los Angeles Rams (9-6) vs. Arizona Cardinals (7-8); Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, NFL Network
Los Angeles Rams clinch NFC West division title with:
- LAR win + LAR clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over SEA
(Note: LAR clinches strength of victory over SEA with 3.5 or more wins from the following teams: MIN, BUF, SF, WAS, CIN, CLE)
Washington Commanders (10-5) vs. Atlanta Falcons (8-7); Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
Washington clinches a playoff berth with:
- WAS win or tie
- TB loss or tie
The Chiefs won’t play another meaningful football game for quite a while.
After three quarters of tight action, the Chiefs used a pair of fourth quarter scores to turn their game against the Steelers into a 29-10 blowout win. The victory moved the Chiefs to 15-1 on the season and it clinched the top seed in the AFC playoffs for head coach Andy Reid’s team.
That means Week 18’s game against the Broncos won’t matter to them and they will also get the Wild Card weekend off before hosting a divisional round game on January 18 and 19. That’s good news for injured players like defensive tackle Chris Jones, left tackle D.J. Humphries, and running back Isiah Pacheco. Jones and Humphries did not play on Wednesday while Pacheco injured his wrist in the win.
Reid will face questions about playing time for the rest of the team, but everyone will benefit from the extended break that the two teams will enjoy before their Week 18 game.
Patrick Mahomes threw three touchdowns in the win, including one to tight end Travis Kelce that accounted for the team’s final score. It was the 77th touchdown catch of Kelce’s career, which makes him the franchise’s all-time leader in that category. Kelce also became the 15th player in NFL history with 1,000 catches and he ended the day with eight catches for 84 yards.
Mahomes was 29-of-38 for 320 yards overall and his other touchdowns went to wide receivers Xavier Worthy and Justin Watson. Worthy had eight catches for 79 yards to continue a strong rookie season and running back Kareem Hunt scored the team’s fourth touchdown of the day.
The Steelers kept it a one-score game through three quarters, but Hunt’s touchdown on the first play of the fourth quarter was followed by a fumble by tight end Pat Freiermuth that led to Kelce’s score. Russell Wilson threw an interception in the end zone and took five sacks in addition to running for Pittsburgh’s only touchdown of the day.
It’s the third straight lopsided loss for the Steelers, but they will still head into Week 18 with a shot at winning the AFC North. A Ravens win against the Texans later on Wednesday will give them the inside track in the division and the Steelers have a lot to sort out on both sides of the ball if they want to have an extended playoff stay at any seed.
We may know all 14 playoff teams by the end of Week 17.
The NFL released all the playoff scenarios for this week on Tuesday and it shows that the five remaining berths can all be filled by next Monday night. The AFC has two spots still up for grabs and the Broncos and Chargers can claim them by winning their games on Saturday. The Broncos will be in Cincinnati and the Chargers will be in New England.
Losses or ties by the Dolphins and Colts would also advance the Chargers if they should stumble against the Patriots.
The Chiefs can also sew up the top seed in the conference with a win over the Steelers on Christmas or a Bills loss to the Jets on Sunday.
In the NFC, the Falcons will clinch their spot and the NFC South with a win over the Commanders or a Bucs loss to the Panthers. The Commanders are also in with a win and they would also clinch if they and the Bucs both lose their games.
The Rams can wrap up their spot and an NFC West division title with a win against Arizona and a Seahawks loss or tie in Thursday night’s game against the Bears. A Rams win and four combined wins by the Vikings, Bills, 49ers, Commanders, Bengals, and Browns would also get the job done.
A Washington loss would make the Eagles the NFC East champs. The Eagles can also take care of business themselves by beating the Cowboys.
Finally, the Lions will nail down the NFC North and the top seed in the conference if the Vikings lose to the Packers on Sunday and they beat the 49ers on Monday night.
The Chiefs have the lead for the AFC No. 1 seed, the Lions have the lead for the NFC No. 1 seed, and there’s still plenty to be determined beyond that. Here’s how the playoff picture looks after Sunday Night Football of Week 16:
NFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION LEADERS
1. Detroit Lions (13-2): Clinched a playoff berth.
2. Philadelphia Eagles (12-3): Clinched a playoff berth.
3. Los Angeles Rams (9-6): Pulling away in the very competitive NFC West.
4. Atlanta Falcons (8-7): Own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Buccaneers.
WILD CARDS
5. Minnesota Vikings (13-2): Clinched a playoff berth, will clinch the No. 1 seed if they win out.
6. Green Bay Packers (10-4): Getting swept by the Lions and losing to the Vikings takes them out of NFC North contention, even though they’re 10-1 otherwise.
7. Washington Commanders (10-5): Stayed alive in the NFC East race by beating the Eagles.
OUTSIDE LOOKING IN
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7): Loss to the Cowboys knocked them out of playoff position.
9. Seattle Seahawks (8-7): Big loss to the Vikings.
10. Dallas Cowboys (7-8): Mathematically eliminated.
11. Arizona Cardinals (7-8): Mathematically eliminated.
12. San Francisco 49ers (6-9): Mathematically eliminated.
13. New Orleans Saints (5-9): Mathematically eliminated.
14. Chicago Bears (4-11): Mathematically eliminated.
15. Carolina Panthers (4-11): Mathematically eliminated.
16. New York Giants (2-13): Mathematically eliminated.
AFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION LEADERS
1. Kansas City Chiefs (14-1): Clinched AFC West, have a 2.5-game lead for the No. 1 seed.
2. Buffalo Bills (12-3): Clinched the AFC East, but can they catch the Chiefs?
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5): Clinched a playoff berth and own the tiebreaker over the Ravens even after Saturday’s loss.
4. Houston Texans (9-6): Clinched the AFC South.
WILD CARDS
5. Baltimore Ravens (10-5): Clinched a playoff berth with a big win against the Steelers, but Pittsburgh still owns the tiebreaker.
6. Los Angeles Chargers (9-6): A big win over the Broncos on Thursday night.
7. Denver Broncos (9-6): The loss to the Chargers hurt, but they’re still on the cusp of a wild card berth.
OUTSIDE LOOKING IN
8. Indianapolis Colts (7-8): Slim wild card hopes.
9. Miami Dolphins (7-8): Even slimmer wild card hopes.
10. Cincinnati Bengals (7-8): The slimmest of wild card hopes.
11. New York Jets (4-11): Mathematically eliminated.
12. Cleveland Browns (3-12): Mathematically eliminated.
13. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12): Mathematically eliminated.
14. Tennessee Titans (3-12): Mathematically eliminated.
15. Las Vegas Raiders (3-12): Mathematically eliminated.
16. New England Patriots (3-12): Mathematically eliminated.
Clinching Scenarios
The following playoff scenarios were released by the NFL on Tuesday:
AFC
CLINCHED:
Buffalo Bills (12-3) – AFC East
Houston Texans (9-6) – AFC South
Kansas City Chiefs (14-1) – AFC West
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5) – playoff berth
Baltimore Ravens (10-5) – playoff berth
NFC
CLINCHED:
Detroit Lions (13-2) – playoff berth
Minnesota Vikings (12-2) – playoff berth
Philadelphia Eagles (12-3) – playoff berth
Green Bay Packers (10-4) vs. New Orleans Saints (5-9); Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC
Green Bay clinches a playoff berth with:
- GB win or tie
The Cardinals forced overtime after being down 17 points against the Panthers in the first half on Sunday, but they couldn’t get it done in the extra session.
After forcing a Carolina punt, the Cardinals took over on their own 10-yard-line and converted a fourth down from their 19 to keep their drive alive. They used both of their timeouts by then, however, and had to take a delay of game that set up a third-and-10 to keep the offense on the field. Panthers linebacker Josey Jewell sacked Kyler Murray to force a punt that gave the Panthers the ball on their 34-yard-line, but an ineligible player downfield penalty forced another kick.
The Panthers wound up on the Cardinals’ 49-yard-line and running back Chuba Hubbard put them in field goal range with a 28-yard run. They didn’t have to settle for the kick, though. Hubbard ran 21 yards for a touchdown on the next play and the 36-30 win officially eliminated the Cardinals from playoff contention.
It was fitting that a penalty helped seal the deal for Arizona because they committed 11 of them over the course of Sunday’s game. That helped the Panthers get out to a 20-3 lead in the first half and the Cardinals had to play from behind for the rest of the day. They had a chance to grab a lead while trailing 30-27 in the fourth quarter, but Murray was picked off by safety Demani Richardson with just over three minutes to play.
Murray got some redemption by leading a drive for Chad Ryland’s game-tying field goal after a Panthers punt, but it will be a disappointing result for a Cardinals team that was leading the division with a 6-4 record after 10 weeks. They’ve now lost four of their final five games and have now missed the postseason for three straight years.
The Panthers will also miss the postseason, but they can feel good about the way Bryce Young has responded from his early-season benching. Young threw two touchdowns and ran for another on Sunday to continue the career resurrection that started when Andy Dalton was knocked out by a thumb injury he picked up in a car accident in the middle of the season.
Carolina will have a chance to play spoiler again in the final two weeks as both the Buccaneers and Falcons still hold playoff aspirations. More performances like Sunday’s for Young and Hubbard — 165 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns — will make that a likelier outcome.
With the Chargers and Broncos jockeying for AFC wild card position, Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert said he and his teammates considered Thursday night a playoff game.
Herbert said after the Chargers’ 34-27 win that the rest of the way, the Chargers are considering themselves to be playing playoff football.
“We talked about it all week, how important these games are especially in December and January, and we knew the implications, and we emphasized all week: This is a playoff game to us,” Herbert said. “It’s the environment, it’s the team — they’re obviously a very talented, incredible team — so for us to be able to pull away with one there, I thought it was awesome for us.”
Herbert has been dealing with an ankle injury and played with a brace, but he said he felt good all game. And he felt very good after the game, with the Chargers improving to 9-6 and on the cusp of clinching a playoff berth.
As the NFL playoff picture comes into focus, it may come into too clear a focus for the AFC to have meaningful football played down the stretch.
By Sunday afternoon, it’s possible that the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage in the AFC could be clinched, that all four divisions in the AFC could be clinched, and that all three wild card berths in the AFC could be clinched. That would leave the entire AFC with very little to play for in Weeks 17 and 18.
The first thing that would have to happen is the Chiefs win and the Bills lose this week. That would clinch the AFC No. 1 seed for the Chiefs, and leave the Bills as AFC East champions who would be playing at home in the first round of the playoffs but would have to go to Kansas City if they advance that far.
Then, the Steelers beating the Ravens would clinch the AFC North for Pittsburgh. Houston has already clinched the AFC South, so the Steelers would be the fourth and final AFC division winner.
If the Chargers win while the Bengals, Dolphins and Colts all lose, that would clinch all three AFC wild card spots, for the Chargers, Broncos and Ravens.
And that would leave us with a very clear AFC playoff picture with two weeks to go: The Chiefs would have the 1 seed and the first-round bye, the Bills, Steelers and Texans would have their divisions and play at home in the first round, and the Chargers, Broncos and Ravens would be wild cards playing on the road in the first round. There would still be some jockeying for the 2-4 seeds and the 5-7 seeds, but the playoff picture would largely be determined. And the final two weeks of the regular season would largely be irrelevant in the AFC.
The Bills, Texans and Chiefs have clinched their divisions, the Lions, Steelers, Vikings and Eagles have clinched playoff berths, and eight more playoff spots are up for grabs. Here’s how the playoff picture looks after Sunday afternoon of Week 15:
NFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION LEADERS
1. Detroit Lions (12-2): Clinched a playoff berth.
2. Philadelphia Eagles (12-2): Clinched a playoff berth.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6): Have first place in the NFC South, and the NFC record tiebreaker over the Rams.
4. Los Angeles Rams (8-6): Took over first place in the very competitive NFC West.
WILD CARDS
5. Minnesota Vikings (12-2): Clinched a playoff berth.
6. Green Bay Packers (10-4): Getting swept by the Lions and losing to the Vikings pretty much takes them out of NFC North contention, even though they’re 10-1 otherwise.
7. Washington Commanders (9-5): One-game lead in the wild card race.
OUTSIDE LOOKING IN
8. Seattle Seahawks (8-6): Didn’t look like a playoff team in Sunday night’s loss to the Packers.
9. Arizona Cardinals (7-7): Staying alive in the NFC West.
10. Atlanta Falcons (7-7): Stayed alive with a win against the Raiders on Monday night.
11. San Francisco 49ers (6-8): Preseason NFC favorites are unlikely to make the playoffs.
12. Dallas Cowboys (6-8): Not totally out of it, but extreme long shots to make the playoffs.
13. New Orleans Saints (5-9): Three games out in the NFC South.
14. Chicago Bears (4-10): Mathematically eliminated.
15. Carolina Panthers (3-11): Mathematically eliminated.
16. New York Giants (2-11): Mathematically eliminated.
AFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION LEADERS
1. Kansas City Chiefs (13-1): Clinched AFC West, have a two-game lead for the No. 1 seed.
2. Buffalo Bills (11-3): Clinched the AFC East, but can they catch the Chiefs?
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4): Clinched a playoff berth.
4. Houston Texans (8-5): Clinched the AFC South.
WILD CARDS
5. Baltimore Ravens (9-5): Own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Broncos.
6. Denver Broncos (9-5): Bo Nix has led them into the wild card race.
7. Los Angeles Chargers (8-6): Sunday’s loss to the Buccaneers hurt.
OUTSIDE LOOKING IN
8. Indianapolis Colts (6-8): Slim wild card hopes.
9. Miami Dolphins (6-8): Even slimmer wild card hopes.
10. Cincinnati Bengals (6-8): The slimmest of wild card hopes.
11. New York Jets (4-10): Mathematically eliminated.
12. Cleveland Browns (3-11): Mathematically eliminated.
13. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-11): Mathematically eliminated.
14. Tennessee Titans (3-11): Mathematically eliminated.
15. New England Patriots (3-11): Mathematically eliminated.
16. Las Vegas Raiders (2-12): Mathematically eliminated.
Clinching Scenarios
AFC
CLINCHED:
Buffalo Bills (10-3) – AFC East
Kansas City Chiefs (13-1) – AFC West
Houston Texans (9-5)—AFC South
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4) — Playoff berth
NFC
CLINCHED:
Detroit (12-2) – playoff berth
Philadelphia (12-2) – playoff berth
Minnesota Vikings (11-2) — playoff berth
On Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET, the 10-3 Bills and 12-1 Lions will kick off in Detroit, and at the same time the 10-3 Steelers and 11-2 Eagles will kick off in Philadelphia. That gives the NFL a great pair of late-season games, the likes of which football fans rarely get to experience.
The last time the NFL had two different games matching up teams with double-digit wins in Week 15 or earlier was in 1985. That year, Week 15 saw the 13-1 Bears beat the 10-4 Jets, while the 10-4 Dolphins beat the 10-4 Patriots.
Bills-Lions and Steelers-Eagles are a great pair of games, but the unfortunate thing is that they kick off simultaneously, meaning football fans can’t give their undivided attention to both. Many fans will watch on two screens with one showing Bills-Lions on CBS and the other showing Steelers-Eagles on Fox, but it would have been great to have at least one of those games in prime time.
These are two of the best games of the season, with major implications for playoff seeding in both conferences. And they might just be a preview of the Super Bowl.
Four teams have already clinched playoff berths and four more teams could join them in Week 15.
The NFL has released this week’s playoff scenarios and it shows that the Texans, Steelers, Packers and Vikings can all book spots in the tournament.
Houston’s path to the playoffs is to beat the Dolphins on Sunday while the Colts lose in Denver. If that happens, the Texans will also be the AFC South champions for the second straight season.
The Steelers have two paths and one of them is as straightforward as it gets. They’re in if they beat the Eagles in Philly and they can also get in and they’ll also be in if the Texans wrap up their division because they lock up a berth with losses by the Dolphins and Colts. Ties by both those teams would also benefit the Steelers, but it’s not a particularly likely development.
In the NFC, the Vikings are in with a home win over the Bears. They can also get in with a tie, a Rams loss or tie or a Seahawks loss or tie.
The Packers are less likely to end the weekend with their playoff fate settled. They will be in the postseason with a win, a Falcons loss or tie and a tie between the Rams and 49ers.
The Eagles locked up their spot in Week 14 and they can move on to clinching the division this weekend. A win and a Commanders loss or tie is the easiest path to an NFC East crown, but tying the Steelers while the Commanders lose would also get the job done.
