After 40 years covering this game, I’ve come to realize how maddeningly interesting and capricious it is. Take Cincinnati-San Francisco in California Sunday. The game turned on a shake of the shoulder by one of the great players today, Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow, who’s spent the last three games reaffirming his greatness.
Reaffirming is right, because Burrow spent the first month of the season as a liability, not a cornerstone. And on a knock-down, drag-out afternoon, with Joe Montana and old 49er friends celebrating Super Bowls past from a box upstairs, Burrow did something with 13 minutes left that Joe Cool would have done. The great ones make plays like this almost without thinking. That’s part of their brilliance.
Cincinnati was up, 17-10, and trying to put the game away after a Brock Purdy interception gave the Bengals the ball at the Niners’ 17. On first down, Ja’Marr Chase lined up split right with Tyler Boyd a step behind him and just to the right. At the snap, Burrow’s eyes bore a hole through Boyd, just the way coach and play-caller Zac Taylor designed it.
“Just trying to sell the perimeter screen,” Burrow said nonchalantly (does he ever speak in any other tone?) over the phone, an hour after the game.
And as Boyd took a step back, like he was about to catch a laser from Burrow, the QB almost imperceptibly began his throwing motion to Boyd, with corner Charvarius Ward moving forward to shadow the WR. “Yeah,” Burrow said, “I gave a little pump fake.” Very little. Still, the shoulder tic looked like it froze the corner covering Chase, Isaiah Oliver, for a split second while Chase zoomed toward the right corner of the end zone. Burrow lofted a strike to Chase, who must have found it odd to not be skin-to-skin with a corner in the end zone. He caught it unchallenged. Ballgame.
“What was cool,” Burrow said, “is it happened exactly how we practiced it. Our guys did a great job of selling it. It’s no secret we like to throw those kinds of routes to Ja’Marr—it’s a big part of what we do. In that situation, a great call by Zac.”
In that situation, great execution by Burrow. He’s just so confident, so unshakeable. Now that Burrow’s achy calf muscle that erased training camp and made him ineffective for the Bengals’ toothless 1-3 start has faded—faded is right, because it’s not altogether gone—Cincinnati should be serious contenders again. The 31-17 win Sunday and Burrow’s brilliant show (28 of 32, 87.5-percent accuracy, three TDs, no picks) gave him a 111.8 rating in the team’s three-game winning streak.
“It’s tough,” Burrow said, “when you have an injury and you’re playing through it. You obviously can’t do some things that normally you can. But we got through it. We got through it healthy and we’re on the other side now, it feels like. My strength is still coming along. In the offseason, I worked the most on athleticism and explosiveness and so it was tough to not be able to show that over the first couple weeks. I was able to show that today and it’s nice seeing hard work pay off.”
Cincinnati, Cleveland and Pittsburgh, all 4-3, trail 6-2 Baltimore in the AFC North, approaching midseason. Burrow’s return to health could be the decisive factor in who wins the division. “We’re exactly where we need to be,” Burrow said. “And we’re going to keep getting better.” After watching him shred the Niners, it’s hard to doubt him.
Boldface Names/Things
Kirk Cousins … His career arc was changing, and now, just sadness. Cousins’ suspected Achilles tear at Green Bay finishes a surprisingly down-and-very-up season, and leaves the resuscitated Vikings in the passing hands of rookie fifth-rounder Jaren Hall, from Spanish Fork, Utah—unless the Vikes make a deal before the Tuesday trade deadline.
Halloween week. How weird. After eight NFL weeks, zero unbeaten teams, zero winless teams.
Patrick Mahomes. Mortal. Did you know that Mahomes has been playing games against AFC West foes since New Year’s Eve 2017, and that before Sunday he hadn’t lost a game ON THE ROAD in the division in his 70 months playing pro football? He was 16-0 in AFC West away games before Denver 24, Kansas City 9.
Three weeks ago today: San Francisco, 5-0, top seed in the NFC; Cincinnati, 2-3, 14th seed in the AFC.
Today: San Francisco, 5-3, sixth seed in the NFC; Cincinnati, 4-3, ninth seed in the AFC.
Bengals. Not dead. Bills at Bengals next Sunday night, and Cincinnati opens as a slight fave. Would have seemed crazy three weeks ago.
A.J. Brown is on a better six-game run right now than Jerry Rice ever had. You read that right.
Commanders 94, Eagles 93. That’s the composite score of the last three Philly-Washington games. Eagles are 2-1 in those three, but they’ve given up 32, 31 and 31 points. I do believe they’re pretty happy to be done with Washington till autumn 2024.
The Jaguars were my preseason pick for AFC top seed. They’re 6-2, riding a five-game win streak, just won convincingly in the Land of Tomlin, and have a 2.5-game lead in a bad division entering their bye. I’d say things are looking up.
Train wreck, thou art the New York Giants’ quarterback situation.
Tyreek Hill, explained. After Hill split two Patriots cover men, who never touched him coming off the line, for an easy touchdown, CBS color guy Adam Archuleta made the perfect comment: “If you don’t disrupt him, you’ve got no chance.”
Mike McDaniel is 3-1 against Bill Belichick. Not many coaches can say they’re batting .750 against the great Belichick.
Will Levis, that is one gorgeous deep ball you throw. I’d say it’s your job in Nashville till further notice.
Bryce Young, you deserved that one.
Cowboys 43, Rams 20. Scorigami. (Hat tip, Scott Hanson.)
You fortunate Frankfurters. A top-10 NFL game of the 272 regular-season affairs, Tua v. Mahomes, kicks off next Sunday at 9:30 a.m. ET at Deutsche Bank Park in Frankfurt, Germany. I’m interested in the differing Miami and Kansas City travel itineraries.
So, re Deshaun Watson … If I told you 41 NFL quarterbacks had thrown at least 200 passes since opening day 2022, and I asked you where Watson ranked among those 41, where would you place him?
Thirty-eighth. Yikes.
Jimmy and Dee Haslam must have this thought going through their minds: What a bargain we got for the $91 million we’ve spent in the last 19 months for Watson.
Camryn Bynum is good at football. Now the Vikings safety is trying to be good at diplomacy.
Derrick Henry is the only truly great player who could be—should be—traded in the next day-and-a-half. He can still dominate a game on the eve of 30 years old. A contender with a rushing need that won’t pay a third-rounder plus something, or an unconditional second-rounder, for a half-season of Henry (a 2024 free-agent) is making a mistake, I believe. Henry per game since 2019: 105.9 rushing yards.
The Rams, remember, overpaid for Von Miller (second- and third-round picks for a half-season), but there’s a good chance they wouldn’t have a Lombardi without Miller’s terrific second half in the Super Bowl.
Kickers. Stop drafting them high.
Emailers. “I think you are a woke idiot,” one tells me. “I greatly dislike you and appreciate the work you do.” Well then.
The Hail Mary. Can the NFL please fix it? Rich McKay, Walt Anderson, Roger Goodell, come on. Officials cannot simply watch players getting mugged and tackled on the last play of a game and look the other way, as they did in Bucs-Bills.
Elizabeth Seal, bless you and your family.
Now for some quick hits on a day with 14 football games and no byes.
Five Stories
Denver’s nugget. The Broncos are still a little clunky on offense, but the two games against Kansas City in the last 17 days proved this is a competitive, feisty team. Who holds Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes to 28 points in eight quarters? With disappointing vets Frank Clark and Randy Gregory cleared off the roster this month, young defensive playmakers like 24-year-old outside ‘backer Baron Browning (two sacks and a forced fumble) will have every chance to form a needed nucleus. Seems much longer than five weeks ago that the Broncos lost, 70-20, at Miami. After this game, coach Sean Payton said he reminded his players Detroit was 1-6 a year ago this week, and things change pretty fast in the NFL. “Enjoy this one,” Payton told the team, “but remember—we’re gonna play in bigger games than this one.” We talked for a few minutes about how Kansas City, and every good team, will have one or two of these games a year. At least. “Miami’s record [17-0 in 1972] is going to be around for a long time,” he said. “This league is just too hard.”
A.J. is OK. Philadelphia’s A.J. Brown plays bigger than 6-1 and 226. He seems 6-4 and 240, almost tight end in stature. He is such a great competitive catcher of the ball that even double-teams, like the one he beat on his second touchdown catch in the Eagles’ 38-31 win over Washington Sunday, are often fruitless. Next Gen Stats had a great example of Brown making catches so many receivers wouldn’t. His 25- and 16-yard catches for touchdowns against Washington had completion probabilities of 23.8 percent and 26.5 percent, respectively, per Next Gen. Easy to say now, but what a great trade GM Howie Roseman made on draft weekend 2022, dealing the 18th and 101st picks to Tennessee for the 24-year-old Brown. On Sunday, he became the first NFL player to have six straight games of at least 125 yards receiving. For some perspective, I went back and looked at the best six-game stretch of Jerry Rice’s career, and was a bit startled to see that Brown’s is better:
- Brown, weeks 3-8, 2023: 49 catches, 831 yards, 17.0 yards per catch.
- Rice, weeks 11-16, 1995: 45 catches, 819 yards, 18.2 yards per catch.
Cousins’ pain. When Kirk Cousins suffered a suspected Achilles tear Sunday late in the game at Green Bay, it marked the first time in the 35-year-old quarterback’s life that he’s had any significant injury. Before now, he’d missed two games in nine years as a starter. ”It’s surprising and it hurts,” said tackle Brian O’Neill. “He lives and breathes being durable and available and out there for us.” The narrative around Cousins was changing this year. In opening his football life and real life to the Netflix doc on quarterbacks, lots of fans saw a more intense, serious-minded, playing-with-pain, likeable guy than they believed Cousins was. Then the year began, and the same old questions about Cousins kicked in with Minnesota’s 1-4 start, and the season seemed lost in Week 5 with the hamstring injury to Justin Jefferson. Without Jefferson, Cousins and the Vikings have won three in a row, and he’s been on fire, with 74-percent accuracy. Overall, this was turning into his best season as a pro, even without the elite WR. Now the ball is handed to rookie fifth-round QB Jaren Hall from BYU, unless the Vikings choose to navigate a picked-over free-agent market or trade for one. A brutal blow for the team, and for a quarterback headed to free agency after the season. It won’t be great for Cousins, on the free market heading into his age-36 year, coming off a torn Achilles.
Levis levitates. Tennessee rookie Will Levis looked a lot more like the first pick in the draft than the 33rd, which he was last spring. Excellent deep arm, good presence, calm in the pocket in his first start in the NFL. Per Next Gen Stats, Levis became the first quarterback since the organization began keeping its detailed stats in 2016 to throw three touchdowns in a game that traveled at least 50 yards each. His superb play might give the Titans pause at Tuesday’s trade deadline. They may not want to trade DeAndre Hopkins after Levis and he connected for TD throws of 47, 16 and 33, among Levis’ four scores.
On Derrick Henry. Of all the players who could be traded this week, there’s only one true star on the market who makes sense for both the trader and the tradee: Titans running back Derrick Henry. Adam Schefter reported over the weekend the Titans told Henry they don’t plan to trade him before Tuesday’s 4 p.m. ET trade deadline. That might be true but means nothing. And it’s a good way for Titans GM Ran Carthon to be able to say to interested teams like Dallas and Baltimore: “If you want him, you better pony up because we intend to keep him.” Henry turns 30 in January but could be a difference-maker in two or three games down the stretch for a contender. What’s better—taking what you can get for Henry, or letting him play out his last 10 games as a Titan and ensuring the franchise will get nothing in return for him? Now, coach Mike Vrabel might push hard to keep Henry, because he’d give the Titans the best shot to play for a Wild Card this year. One more note: In the first three rounds of next year’s draft, the Titans have two picks—their own in Rounds 1 and 2. (They traded their third- to Arizona on draft weekend last April.) In all, they have seven picks—but only two in the first 100, overall. Let’s say Tennessee has the 12th pick in the draft. That’d mean the Titans would pick 12th, 44th and then not till 114th. For a team in certain rebuilding mode in 2024, that’s bad. It’s why Carthon should be motivated to get a Day 2 pick for Henry.
On the German Mega-Game
It’s an excellent question: Does the NFL regret putting one of the games of the year, 7-2 Kansas City against 7-2 Miami, in the Sunday morning 9:30 Eastern Time window on NFL Network instead of in prime time, when it could have been a ratings monster?
Well, no one inside the NFL offices would ever admit it. Of course, there has to be some regret. But I’m going to tell you how it happened, and why it’s pretty logical that the game ended up in Germany.
Five major reasons:
1. Every team now is mandated to play a “home game” at an international site at least once every eight years. Kansas City wanted its game to be in Germany, where it has global marketing rights, in one of the years when it was scheduled to have nine home games. In 2022 and 2024, AFC teams were and are slated for eight home games. The 2023 season, with nine home games for AFC teams, was the obvious choice.
2. The NFL doesn’t like to schedule division teams as international foes unless those teams agree to make the trip. No way Denver, Vegas or the Chargers would volunteer for trips of 10 hours or more to Frankfurt this year. That left six Kansas City home games: Buffalo, Chicago, Cincinnati, Detroit, Miami, Philadelphia. Heck of a home slate.
3. Kansas City did not want to lose the Chicago home game. The Bears were scheduled to be in Kansas City only once between 2016 and 2030, and that was this year. In the Midwest, the 103-year-old Bears have fans everywhere, and KC felt it would have been a disservice to those fans to go 15 seasons without a visit by the Bears. That left five Kansas City home games.
4. Keep in mind the NFL has to have its schedule in place by early May, and the defending Super Bowl champs are going to max out with six prime-time appearances plus multiple doubleheader appearances on Fox and CBS. Let’s go back to early May and look at the KC schedule. The Philadelphia Super Bowl rematch was a lock to go to prime time—and it became the Nov. 20 Monday-nighter on ESPN/ABC. Buffalo, Cincinnati and Miami, probably in that order, seemed like good national-TV games. (I say in that order, because back in April and May, the Bills and Bengals were clearly more desirable TV teams than Miami.) So, the NFL made KC-Buffalo and KC-Cincinnati the late-window doubleheader games in Weeks 14 and 17, respectively. That left two Kansas City home games for Germany: Miami or Detroit.
5. X factor, now. The league also had to find a Kickoff Game foe for Kansas City on Sept. 7. Yes, the league could have made this a division game. Raiders-Chiefs was very nearly put in that slot; I can tell you the league was seriously considering that game. But the NFL broadcast committee has often said internally: Teams play their way onto the national games. Detroit was 8-2 down the stretch last season. The Lions had zilch to play for in week 18 at Lambeau Field and the Packers had a playoff spot to play for—yet the Lions beat Green Bay and played valiantly that night. Inside the NFL, there was a fascination with the potential of the Lions. The league never has to put the most desirable matchup as the first game of the season, because the ratings are going to be solid anyway. So, they put the Lions in the opener, over Miami and the Raiders. Good call. Detroit 21, Kansas City 20.
That left Miami for Frankfurt. And once again, like the endangered cat stuck high in the tree, the NFL has fallen out of a Redwood and landed on its feet with a TV decision. Set your alarms next Sunday, America.
On Camryn Bynum
There’s something both heartbreaking and inspirational about Vikings safety Camryn Bynum. Inspirational because he’s risen from the 125th player picked in the 2021 draft to being one of the top-performing safeties in football—PFF has him fourth overall this week, ahead of his far more famous secondary-mate Harrison Smith—and heartbreaking because his wife can’t be there to experience it. Cam and Lalaine Bynum were married in the Philippines on March 2, but because she’s been unable to secure a visa to move to the United States, she’s back on the other side of the Pacific Ocean.
Bynum had the quarter of his life last Monday, picking off Brock Purdy twice in the last seven minutes to secure a narrow Vikings victory over San Francisco. But as important for Bynum was his post-game interview on the field with Tom Pelissero of NFL Network. He used part of it to appeal for help in getting his wife into the U.S.
Nothing’s happened yet, but his appeals have gotten the attention of both senators from Minnesota and from the son of the Filipino president, all of whom have written letters for Bynum urging authorities there to grant Lalaine Bynum passage into the United States.
Camryn Bynum grew up in California. His mother is a third-generation Filipino-American, and the family has many ties to the Philippines, where Bynum has spent time trying to help grow the game of football. He met Lalaine there. When they married, he assumed getting her into the United States would be easy. Who’d keep a husband and wife apart as they begin their lives together?
“I was really naïve,” Bynum told me.
I thought, as did he, that once an American married someone from another country, they could both live in the United States. Not so, at least for Filipinos. Twice Bynum’s wife has been refused a spousal visa—he said they have not been given an explanation—which led him to use the NFL Network platform, and in turn, so much more attention from other media, to tell his frustrating story. He tells it with a smile on his face and without bitterness, but you can see he’s hurting over it. The two-interception game did give Bynum the chance to enlist some power players. And he’s an enthusiastic fan of the Philippines. He displays a Filipino flag in his locker at work, plus he and Lalaine spent two weeks—what normally would have been their honeymoon—last March doing service on a typhoon-battered island in the Philippines.
“I miss her like crazy,” Bynum said. “You have to really map out your day a lot better just to spend time with your wife. I feel as if it’s not … I wouldn’t say it’s not fair, but especially for newlyweds a few months married, then have to go the whole football season without her being able to come over here, it’s tough. Our mental health—just your heart, overall, just missing your wife … Nobody should be away from their spouse for this long.”
40-for-40
A recurring element in the column this year: a video memory of one of my favorite memories of 40 years covering pro football.
In 1998, after the NFL signed new television contracts with the networks, one of the first beneficiaries was Vikings defensive tackle John Randle. Sports Illustrated sent me to Texas to do a story on him. What an awakening that was. Randle and two siblings were raised by a single mom who made $23 a week as a maid, and until his senior year in high school, they lived in a shack on a wind-swept plain in south central Texas.
He drove me to see the old place, the kind of place, as I wrote, “America wishes didn’t exist and pretends doesn’t.”
My memories of this 25-year-old story are still vivid today.
The Award Section
Offensive players of the week
A.J. Brown, wide receiver, Philadelphia. Put them in some order, but Brown, Justin Jefferson and Tyreek Hill are the three best receivers in football. Brown’s first of two touchdown receptions just give another example of why. Brown caught his second TD toss in tight double-coverage, and earned his sixth straight game of 125 receiving yards or more. That’s an NFL record for most games of 125 yards receiving in a row.
Russell Wilson, quarterback, Denver. It’s not about the numbers anymore, or at least it shouldn’t be, for Wilson. A performance like Sunday’s against Kansas City—12 of 19, 114 yards, three TDs, no picks, 119.3 rating—was nice but not spectacular. What was great for Wilson was piloting the game the way a smart quarterback should against Patrick Mahomes. No interceptions, one lost fumble (that led to three points) against a top-10 defense, 34 minutes of possession time, and understanding that sometimes a punt is a good play in a ball-control, field-position game. Wilson’s had a lot of gaudy numbers games in his life, but I bet it’s a lot more rewarding to snap a 16-game Broncos losing streak against the best quarterback in the sport—and to beat Mahomes for the first time in four Denver starts against him.
Will Levis, quarterback, Tennessee. We got to see the majestic arm of the rookie from Kentucky, early and often, against Atlanta in the Titans’ 28-23 victory, with four TD throws. That 61-yarder to DeAndre Hopkins … I hope NFL Films got an iso shot on that throw as it flew through the central Tennessee sky. For the day, Levis was 19 of 29 for 238 yards, with the four TDs and no picks.
Defensive players of the week
Kayvon Thibodeaux, edge-rusher, New York Giants. Such a strange, strange game. But Thibodeaux had his best game in the NFL: nine tackles, three sacks, a forced fumble. His two sacks, for losses of 15 and 10 yards, on what should have been the Jets’ final drive of a loss, were precisely the plays the Giants drafted him to make. A shame for the Giants that they fielded an offense incapable of playing football Sunday.
Maurice Hurst, defensive lineman, Cleveland. 6-2, 290, and balletic.
Jalen Ramsey, cornerback, Miami. In his first game post summer knee surgery to repair a meniscus tear, Ramsey made the kind of play that the Dolphins have longed for since acquiring him in trade with the Rams last spring. Ramsey lay in wait for a red-zone throw from Mac Jones late in the first half, as the Patriots were trying to tie the game, and picked it off at the Miami 11-yard line. He returned it 49 yards to set up a late field goal, giving Miami at 17-7 lead at the half.
Special teams players of the week
Thomas Morstead, punter, New York Jets. In a field-position slog of a game that set pro football back 68 years, Morstead punted 11 times for a 48.1-yard average, and four of them forced the Giants to start drives at their 2-, 3-, 15- and 3-yard lines. A bizarre game for one of the best performances of the 37-year-old Morstead’s life, but it was certainly that.
Brandon Aubrey, kicker, Dallas. I’m late in recognizing one of the best stories of the season. Aubrey went to Notre Dame but never played football; he scored 15 goals for the Fighting Irish soccer team between 2013 and 2016, and never kicked in a football game till playing for the USFL’s Birmingham Stallions in 2022. The Cowboys signed him four months ago and he secured the kicking job in training camp. Aubrey’s hit all 18 of his field-goal tries through seven games, including his longest Sunday in the rout of the Rams: 58 yards, perfectly down the middle, and another insurance boot late. Not bad for a guy earning $750,000, one-third of 1 percent of the Dallas salary cap.
Sam Martin, punter, Buffalo. In an odd way, Martin had one of the most impactful games a punter ever could have Thursday night against Tampa Bay. Amazing that Martin is in here, seeing that he never booted the football for the first 39 minutes of Buffalo’s 24-18 win. His first punt, with 20 minutes left in the game, pinned Tampa at its 3-yard line. His second punt, with 14 minutes left, pinned Tampa at its 4-yard line. His third punt, with 10 minutes left, pinned Tampa at its 8-yard line. Crazy thing: Martin did it one more time, and the ball was hanging in the air at the 1-yard line, and the Buffalo gunner couldn’t bat it back into play.
Coaches of the week
Vance Joseph, defensive coordinator, Denver. “Embattled” was a mandatory adjective for Joseph in Denver’s 1-4 start. His D was allowing 36.2 points a game, by far a league-worst, including the 70-point debacle at Miami. But in the last three weeks, the Broncos have held KC, Green Bay and KC again to 19, 17 and nine points, respectively. Against Kansas City, the cream of the AFC, Denver gave up one TD in eight total red-zone trips to the great Mahomes. Excellent job by Joseph and the mostly young D.
John Fassel, special-teams coordinator, Dallas. Hard to have a better special-teams day than Fassel’s crew had against the Rams. That’s the team that employed Fassel as special-teams coordinator for eight years—and as interim head coach for three games pre-McVay—before he was allowed to move to Dallas in 2020. In the first half against the Rams, the Cowboys had a 58-yard field goal, a Rams’ punt blocked out of the end zone for a safety, and a 63-yard return on the ensuing free-kick by KaVontae Turpin. That’s a dream sequence by the field-goal unit, the punt-block unit, and the return team.
Goats of the week
Graham Gano, kicker, New York Giants. The normally reliable Gano cost the Giants a victory Sunday, missing field-goal tries from 47 and 35. He pulled the 35-yarder wide left with 25 seconds to go, keeping the Giants’ lead at 10-7. The Jets drove for a field goal to tie, then won in overtime on another field goal. On a day the Jets were 0-for-12 in third-down conversions in the first 57 minutes, the Giants handed them the gift of the season.
Brock Purdy, quarterback, San Francisco. Three turnovers in the last 16 minutes doomed the Niners. Very uncharacteristic for Purdy. Twice in the last 16 minutes against Cincinnati, Purdy had the ball, down seven, with a chance to even the game. Twice he threw interceptions, once just 8 yards from the tying touchdown. Purdy has had some wonderful moments in his young career, but Sunday in Santa Clara was not one of them.
Quotes of the Week
I.
--Tennessee rookie quarterback Will Levis, after throwing four touchdowns in his NFL debut to lead Tennessee over Atlanta, 28-23—and then beginning shifting into prep mode for his Thursday night game at Pittsburgh.
II.
--Giants radio analyst Carl Banks, the former Pro Bowl linebacker, late in the strange Giants-Jets game, after the second of three sacks from pass-rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux. Banks got angry after Thibodeaux was criticized for poor play on a New York sports-talk station.
III.
--Miami cornerback Xavien Howard, per the Palm Beach Post, not toeing the company line after the NFL and HBO named the Dolphins as the in-season team to be featured on “Hard Knocks” this year.
IV.
--Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen, calling an audible with a hoops codename at the line of scrimmage Thursday night against Tampa Bay.
V.
--Giants coach Brian Daboll, asked about the franchise considering a trade for running back Saquon Barkley by Tuesday’s deadline.
Numbers Game
I.
After watching rookie kicker Jake Moody miss a 41-yarder 10 inches wide right to lose the Niners’ game at Cleveland in Week 6, then seeing him miss his next field-goal try from 40 last Monday night at Minnesota (in an indoor stadium) 3 feet wide right, I have come to this conclusion: Never, ever, ever pick a kicker in the first four rounds of a draft.
In the last 15 years, NFL teams have picked five kickers in the first four rounds. Two of them, Moody and Chad Ryland, were picked this year, so it’s too early to judge. But the recent evidence is overwhelming. It’s dumb to take kickers early. Look at the five guys picked in the top four rounds of the past 15 drafts:
2023
Jake Moody (San Francisco, Round 3, 99th overall). Struggling. Now, Moody made a 55-yarder after missing from 40, and I don’t want to be flip here, but I don’t care. You cannot miss 41- and 40-yard kicks in big moments in consecutive games. You can’t.
Chad Ryland (New England, Round 4, 112th overall). Five of nine from 40 yards and out.
2022
Cade York (Cleveland, Round 4, 124th overall). Cut after one season. On the Titans’ practice squad.
2016
Roberto Aguayo (Tampa Bay, Round 2, 59th overall). A 71-percent kicker as a rookie, he slumped in camp in 2017 and never kicked again in the league. Unsigned.
2011
Alex Henery (Philadelphia, Round 4, 120th overall). Kicked four seasons. Made 69 percent of his kicks beyond 40 yards. Not good. Per Wikipedia, he now works for a real estate firm.
The following kickers were not drafted, and at least one, who dresses in purple, will likely be going to Canton one day: Justin Tucker, Matt Prater, Younghoe Koo, Chris Boswell, Brandon McManus. The following kickers were drafted, but not in the top 140 of a draft: Dustin Hopkins, Matt Gay, Nick Folk, Harrison Butker.
Moody and Ryland have miles to go before we can judge their careers definitively. Clearly, we have to wait and see on them. But the point is, there was no evidence last April that kickers are worth valuable picks in the draft, and there certainly isn’t now.
II.
The Buffalo Bills over the first four games: 3-1 … Bills 139, Foes 55.
The Buffalo Bills over the last four games: 2-2 … Bills 83, Foes 81.
In the last 16 quarters, the Bills are a narrowly missed Hail Mary from being outscored by teams with a combined record of 13-18.
Factoidness
Some things that interest me about the 42nd regular-season game the NFL has exported outside the United States in its International Series—Miami and Kansas City in Frankfurt, Germany, next Sunday:
I.
This is the game with the best combined winning percentage in the history of the International Series. Miami and KC, the two highest-seeded teams in the AFC, are a combined 14-4. It’s a Kansas City “home game,” and I can’t imagine the locals are too happy about surrendering the Return of Tyreek Hill Bowl to a stadium 5,000 miles away.
II.
As the players left the field after Denver’s 24-9 upset of Kansas City Sunday, the PA system at Empower Field in Denver blared “Shake It Off,” by Taylor Swift. Assume Travis Kelce heard.
III.
The teams have differing travel philosophies. Late Monday afternoon, Miami will fly approximately 9 hours and 5 minutes, from Fort Lauderdale to Frankfurt, arriving mid-morning Tuesday. Players will have Tuesday off, then practice Wednesday, Thursday and Friday as normal with some media obligations each day, with a customary Saturday walk-through … Kansas City will have a normal early week, with players off Tuesday and practice Wednesday and Thursday at home. Late Thursday afternoon, Kansas City will fly approximately 9 hours and 55 minutes, from Kansas City to Frankfurt, arriving mid-morning Friday. KC will have a light practice at 3:45 p.m. Friday, then have media obligations, then a walk-through Saturday. The Ravens were in London the full week and beat Tennessee earlier this month; the Jaguars flew over Thursday night, as the Chiefs will, and beat the Falcons a few days later. It all probably doesn’t matter much.
IV.
The game site, Deutsche Bank Park, seats only 48,000 for American football. Tickets went on sale June 27, and it sold out in 15 minutes … with 1,420,587 people waiting in the online queue.
Bottom line: There haven’t been many must-see games at 9:30 a.m. ET in NFL history, but this is certainly one.
King of the Road
Very sporting time of the year for my favorite road hotel on the planet: the Arizona Biltmore in suburban Phoenix. The grounds are pristine at the Frank Lloyd Wright architectural gem; you can’t match it in the just-hot-enough Phoenix spring. Teams in the Biltmore for sporting events:
- Friday night into midday Saturday: Utah Jazz, NBA. (Jazz at Suns, Saturday night.)
- Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning: Baltimore Ravens, NFL. (Ravens at Cardinals, Sunday afternoon.)
- Sunday evening into Wednesday afternoon: Texas Rangers, MLB. (Rangers at Diamondbacks, World Series games 3-4-5.)
Newman!
Reach me at peterkingfmia@gmail.com.
Re sports betting by underaged kids. From Eric of New York City: “There is a reason why the minimum age to gamble is 21, noting that for sports betting there are four states that allow it for people 18 and above; Montana, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Washington. Kids do not have the emotional maturity to handle it. Here in New York, sports betting by high schoolers is not rare based on my experience. The students set up accounts on the apps using their parents’ names, birthdays, etc. The kids are bombarded with ads, emails with the offers of free bets to entice them. Sometimes the parents are complicit and sometimes they are not. The kids are seduced by parlays. I have personally overheard high school students talking about something to the effect of, ‘Oh, I got 5 out of the 6 and just missed it.’ I am personally aware of high school kids getting out of control with sports betting, close to addiction. Then these kids are going away to college and manipulating things so they can continue to bet.”
Thanks for pointing that out, Eric. I had no idea. Just another reason why widespread sports gambling will end up being a scourge on our society.
Steve Hartman rocks. From Dale Hemmila, of Port Huron, Mich.: “Thanks for often highlighting Steve Hartman stories. They are uplifting pieces of journalism. These days, more than ever, these are stories we need to see and feel. I had the opportunity to interview Hartman a couple of years ago for a magazine my wife and I publish here in Michigan. I told him he probably had one of the best jobs ever. His response: ‘Somewhere there might be someone tasting ice cream for a living … but this is pretty good.’ He also told me his stories represent the 99.9 percent of America not told on the evening news. Here’s a link to my story.”
So good of you to pass that along, Dale. Appreciate the story you told there. Well-written and informative.
Thanks, I think. From Mike Shereck: “With all your prattling on about AI and Roger Goodell you did hit on the one piece that I think will transform the NFL: Tua Tagovailoa‘s relationship with Mike McDaniel and the open and honest work relationship. The autocratic, do-it-my-way, I-am-God approach of the former NFL coaches is going away. I think you are a woke idiot, and often focus on the wrong stuff. Your coverage is so all-encompassing. It is highly valuable. Thank you. I greatly dislike you and appreciate the work you do.”
Well, I do appreciate that. We can’t all agree on things, but I hope you can get a thing or two of value out of the column, Mike.
Flag football is bigger than I think. From Simon Grant, of Carlisle, England: “I think you are vastly underestimating the popularity and competitiveness of flag football outside the U.S. In my tiny provincial town in the North of England, we have a rookie team that just made the playoffs, and every week we have 30 guys turn up to play. In the summer, the European Flag Championships were hotly contested by both men’s and women’s teams—UK, France, Germany, Switzerland all represented to name a few. The fact that the games will take place in LA may have influenced the decision to include ‘American’ football, but it is far from guaranteed to be gold for Team USA.”
Interesting, Simon. That’s really great of you to write and inform me.
10 Things I Think I Think
1. I think I still don’t know how the Jets won that game. Or, rather, how the Giants lost it. Amazing to see the Giants’ season circling the drain before Halloween.
2. I think if I were an NFL owner and/or the club exec firing up a postseason coaching search come January, Jim Harbaugh’s name would not be on my list. Too much smoke there, whatever the investigative result of this 2023 version of Spygate at Michigan reveals.
3. I think it’s always odd to see players walk away in the middle of the season. But I sense more now that when players do, they just walk into an abyss, and even the most ardent of fans thinks, Ok. Who’s up next? Last week, Detroit wideout Marvin Jones said he was leaving the Lions to be with his family in San Diego, and the Lions responded by cutting him. He’s 33, and had been a non-factor this year. Not that Jones deserves a parade, but he did catch more balls in his career, 547, than Lance Alworth and John Stallworth; twice he had four TD catches in a game. And poof. He’s gone. Eight paragraphs in the Detroit News atop the Lions notebook the next day. Maybe it’s because Jones didn’t say he’s retiring. But it’s pretty clear he’s likely done in Detroit, and who would want a 34-year-old receiver next year who did nothing at 33? Just an odd way to go out.
4. I think Joe Posnanski said it best: “The Deshaun Watson saga just gets weirder and weirder and weirder.”
5. I think all players are different, with different ways of expressing themselves, with different thresholds of pain. So let’s put those things aside. Let’s deal with performance only. I asked Stathead, the Pro Football Reference stat service, to rank all quarterbacks in the NFL—minimum 200 attempts—by passer rating since the start of 2022. Per Stathead, 41 quarterbacks have at least 200 pass attempts since opening day ‘22. Re Watson’s performance:
a. Watson’s 79.8 rating is 38th among quarterbacks with at least 200 pass attempts over the past two seasons.
b. Watson’s passer rating is five points shy of the ratings of Desmond Ridder and Sam Howell, six points behind Gardner Minshew, nine points behind Jacoby Brissett, 10 points behind Taylor Heinicke, 16 points behind current Houston successor C.J. Stroud, and 19 points behind Geno Smith.
c. Watson has been paid, as of this morning, $90.77 million by the Browns since signing his fully guaranteed $230-million contract in March 2022. That number, per overthecap.com, will be $91.37 million by the end of this season.
d. To acquire Watson from Houston, the Browns sent the 13th and 107th picks in the 2022 draft and the 12th and 73rd picks in the 2023 draft, and will send their first- and fourth-round picks in 2024.
The contract is a five-year deal. It’s too early to say Watson is a Cleveland bust. But if the Browns get to the end of this season without having a good idea whether Watson’s their long-term quarterback, that would be an abject disaster. Imagine surrendering three mid-first-round picks, one third- and two fourths-, and $91.37 million, and not feeling like you’ve solved a decades-long quarterback problem. There’s a lot of pressure on Watson, and the Cleveland offense, to show progress by the end of the season. A lot of progress.
6. I think I heard something smart the other day. See if you agree. A good friend of mine, a fan of all Philly teams, made this comment: “It’s hard to think of a more beloved athlete in Philadelphia right now than Jason Kelce.” Who would it be? Bryce Harper, perhaps. Or maybe Joel Embiid. I don’t live there, so I don’t know. I’d love to hear thoughts from the City of Brotherly Shove.
7. I think there’s something that sort of drives me batty. So Josh Allen has been trying harder to avoid injurious hits, which is smart. A 17-game season is a killer for a guy who has rushed 246 times in the past two seasons. And though Allen has gotten hurt twice while a passer and not a runner, hits are hits, and the Bills entered this season with the idea of running Allen less to take less punishment. Watching the game against Tampa, it was clear the crowd wanted him to run more and be “the old Josh,” particularly after he ran for an early touchdown and the fans went into a frenzy. I’d just say, be careful what you wish for. Allen is running 4.5 times per game this year, as opposed to 7.5 times per game over 2021 and ’22. I understand the offense has been stagnant, and Allen’s legs are a big component to a great attack. But the most important thing for the Bills is to get into the tournament. If I were a Bills mafioso, I’d rather be 10-7, a Wild Card, and the sixth seed in the playoffs, playing exclusively on the road with a relatively healthy Allen … than 12-5, a division champ, and the third seed with Allen trying to limp through one home game and two road games to get to the Super Bowl.
8. I think, speaking of the Bills-Bucs game, it contained a pet peeve of mine. On the Hail Mary (perfectly lofted 62 yards in the air into the end zone by Baker Mayfield, by the way), Tampa Bay tight end Cade Otten was held/interfered with/thrown down in a two-man vise with Taylor Rapp and Christian Benford the Buffalo offenders.
Had the distance, but the hail mary is incomplete and the Bills will get the win. #TBvsBUF pic.twitter.com/VAGWiedAh6
— NFL (@NFL) October 27, 2023
Except, on Hail Marys, there are never offenders. Anything goes. There is no play like this in football, and possibly in all of sports, where the officials see blatant pass interference and defensive holding (and some offensive penalties at times too) and never throw a flag. It’s a pet peeve because, how can the NFL officiating department expect us to believe all plays are officiated equally regardless of the situation when Otten gets mugged by two Buffalo defenders and lands on the ground and no flag is thrown? And then the NFL counts on people forgetting, which they’ve done this morning because 14 games were played Sunday, making it easy for everyone to just move on. Nothing to see here.
9. I think this is what should happen on Hail Marys. The Competition Committee and the commissioner should come out of next spring’s league meeting with a decree that says the play will be called differently going forward. Beginning in 2024, jostling will be allowed as players get in position for the Hail Mary pass to fall to earth. Pulling players down, blatantly holding them or locking them away from the play with two defenders will result in pass-interference, with an untimed down for the offensive team at either the spot of the foul or the one-yard line. Bottom line: Officials cannot allow one play to be a bastardization of the rules, which is exactly what the Hail Mary is now. It is a joke, and the NFL has allowed it to be that.
10. I think these are my other thoughts of the week:
a. Good and important recollection from Richard Deitsch, on the former Twitter: a Boston Globe front page from Feb. 16, 2018. It’s haunting 5.5 years later after the biggest mass shooting in New England since Sandy Hook:
— Richard Deitsch (@richarddeitsch) October 26, 2023
b. Thoughts and prayers, though.
c. TV Story of the Week: Emilie Ikeda of NBC News on the lives lost in Maine, including one heartbreaking interview with the wife of one of the victims, Joshua Seal—in sign language. Joshua Seal was deaf, and was an American Sign Language interpreter. When Elizabeth Seal talks directly to her children about how much their departed dad loved them, the tragedy just feels so much worse:
d. What an incredibly strong woman Elizabeth Seal is, to even be able to do that interview.
e. There is a GoFundMe page for the Seal family, if you’re of a mind to do something, anything, for one of the families that will never be the same.
f. At least one lawmaker has come to his senses, as reported by the Boston Globe. Congressman Jared Golden of Maine, whose district was scarred by the shootings, reversed course. Per the Globe:
“I have opposed efforts to ban deadly weapons of war, like the assault rifle used to carry out this crime,” Golden said. “The time has now come for me to take responsibility for this failure.”
Golden, who lives in Lewiston and represents Maine’s vast 2nd Congressional District, said there is “a false confidence that our community was above” a mass shooting. He added that because of his determination to protect his daughter, wife, and his home community, he is now opposed to what he called “deadly weapons of war.”
“Sometimes things happen that bring your worst nightmares to life. Yesterday, this is what happened,” he said. “I will do everything I have to support this community’s recovery.”
g. Good for Golden, though it’s a shame something like this has to happen in a politician’s backyard for him to do the right thing and advocate for meaningful gun control.
h. Innovative Story of the Week: Time magazine’s 200 best inventions of 2023. Four I liked:
i. The Loftie Clock, the bedtime clock that does everything the smartphone does except the distracting phone light.
j. The Stakt Mat, a workout mat. Twice as thick as a yoga mat, comfy as a soft mattress.
k. Kraft Heinz 360Crisp, a device that keeps microwavable food from getting soggy. A crispy grilled cheese sandwich in the microwave, with the key being the paperboard container the sandwich nestles in? I’m in.
l. LeapFrog Magic Adventures Telescope, a telescope for kids that I would have loved to use way back in the day. Kids can take photos of their space discoveries, plus this: “Kids can also watch videos and view images taken by NASA and at the European Space Agency through the telescope’s viewfinder.”
m. Music Story of the Week: Mikael Wood of the Los Angeles Times on 89-year-old Frankie Valli, who is still singing, though he says he will cut back his shows by half in 2024.
n. The portrait by photographer Brian van der Brug is worth the click on this story. Valli looks damn good for 89.
o. Wrote Wood:
Valli plays 75 or 80 well-attended concerts every year, including a gig in May at Inglewood’s YouTube Theater in which that last tune sparked a singalong so robust that Valli told the audience, “They can hear us in Sacramento.”
“I’ve been doing this a long time,” he continues, his whaddya-want-from-me accent softened slightly by his years living in California. “It’s not so much the work — it’s the travel. Back in the day, you went to a job and you stayed there for a week. That wasn’t so bad. Now everything is one-nighters, which means you finish the show, get to bed, get up at 6 in the morning, go to the airport, go to the next job and do the same thing all over again.” A small, birdlike guy dressed in skinny jeans and dress sneakers, Valli sighs. “It’s tough.”
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Does he prefer to text or call?
“Call,” he says. “I’m very un-electronic. You see all these people getting into trouble? Look at Hunter Biden.”
From the kitchen, Valli’s wife calls out, “No political talk, please,” which he ignores long enough to ask why both parties refuse term limits and to wonder “how all thesenguys in politics become millionaires.”
Might we think of the Last Encores tour as a kind of term limit for Frankie Valli? He seems to like that idea.o
“I just want to go someplace when I’m done that’s very quiet and doesn’t have radio or TVs,” he says. “Maybe paint or something, get into something else.”
p. It is amazing that the man who sang the No. 1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 on Nov. 17, 1962, is still belting out his hits.
q. That’s right: “Big Girls Don’t Cry,” biggest hit in the country 61 years ago. And so many more.
r. A few baseball takeaways: So much admiration for the Diamondbacks. Winning four of five against the heavily favored Phils after losing Game 2, 10-0, to go down 0-2. One of the best comebacks I’ve seen in a postseason series—and a great series through and through. And then being so good on the higher stage in Texas … Man, that’s impressive.
s. I said, “one of.”
t. I love that Arizona catcher, the 23-year-old Gabby Moreno. (Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll too.) I’ve watched a lot of October baseball, and I saw Moreno get clobbered and concussed by a backswing in the series at Milwaukee. Then he hit a three-run homer off Clayton Kershaw to start the three-game NLDS sweep of the Dodgers and hit another bomb in the NLDS Game 3 clincher as the surprise No. 3 hitter in the lineup. And he had the winning hit in Game 7 of the NLCS at Citizens Bank Park, and the home run to put Arizona up, 1-0, early in Game 2 of the World Series. What a month. But his defense has been even better.
u. Moreno made a throw in Game 6 of the NLCS that’s one of the best plays I’ve seen a catcher make.
v. Look at that: Moreno blocked a ball in the dirt, kept it in front of him with a runner on first, chased it down, and fired a bullet strike to get Kyle Schwarber at second by a millimeter. What a throw.
w. Not too fashionable to take a couple of sentences to praise a baseball umpire, but home plate ump Tripp Gibson in Game 6 of the National League Championship Series was superb. That’s as precise a job in a big game as I remember.
x. How much, exactly, would I have to pay New Balance to stop airing the HEY YOU Shohei Ohtani commercial? However much it’d cost, it’d be worth it.
y. RIP, Brooks Thomas, former Jets PR man and mentor to many in the business. A very good man.
Games of Week 9
Miami vs. Kansas City (in Frankfurt, Germany), Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET, NFL Network. We all get entranced by watching the Dolphins offense, and rightfully so. But here we are, entering November, and this Chargers-of-’81-era offense is 7-2 but hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record. This just in: Kansas City has a winning record.
Dallas at Philadelphia, Sunday, 4:25 p.m., Fox. You’ll get bombarded with this stat this week: Dallas has won four of the last five in this series and averaged 37 points a game while doing that. I would counter with this: Jalen Hurts is 2-2 in the series, and we’re going to see a very competitive game here, not a Dallas domination.
Buffalo at Cincinnati, Sunday, 8:20 p.m., NBC. This is tough enough for the Bills, returning to the stadium where a valued DB almost died 10 months ago. But it starts a brutal six-game stretch: at Bengals, Broncos and Jets at home, at Philly and Kansas City, Dallas at home. If I’m the Bills, with the shaky way they’re playing, I’d sign for 4-2 and be OK with 3-3 in this run of games.
The Adieu Haiku
Titans must be sick.
Will Levis to A.J. Brown.
In your dreams. Sigh. Sigh.