Noah

Gray

Not the line you wanted, but certainly the line you’re used to. Since Week 12, Kelce has gone over eight targets just once and hasn’t done better than 68 yards in a game or scored. Kelce has become a low-end TE1. Noah Gray (1/10 on one target) gets tagged on to this post because he somehow managed to not score a touchdown. Neither player is an exciting start in Week 17 against the Steelers, though we can understand riding with Kelce’s volume.

Gray’s fifth score of the season was also his fifth in as many games. Today snapped a string of four straight four-catch performances, but Gray continues to lack ceiling, while his floor is still struggling to crack the top 18 in fantasy. Especially with Patrick Mahomes’ (ankle) health now up in the air, Gray isn’t a compelling Week 16 streamer against the Texans.

Had Patrick Mahomes led Gray a little less on a deep target in the first quarter, this could have been a 5/~90/1 line. Alas. Gray has worked as a main offensive cog for most of the last three weeks and will be a borderline TE1 in Week 14 against the Chargers.

For the second straight week, Gray had two scores. He found himself wide open on the first play from scrimmage for Kansas City and waltzed into the end zone for a 35-yard touchdown. Running a route on about 55 percent of Mahomes’ drop backs, Gray was tied for third in targets against the Panthers. He could be viable in larger formats next week against a Raiders defense that has been generous to opposing tight ends this year.

Fantasy managers who started Travis Kelce were left shouting into the void on Sunday, as Gray caught not one but two short touchdowns in Sunday’s loss to the Bills. It was the first time this season that Gray found the end zone and it also marked the first two-touchdown game of his career. Fantasy managers who feel inclined to chase the points will want to remember that in his previous three games, Gray caught five combined passes for 41 scoreless yards. There’s no reason to get cute in Week 12 against the Panthers.

Gray remains a capable contributor in the Chiefs’ efficient offense. Perhaps the most notable development for Gray was the apparent knee injury suffered by backup TE Jody Fortson, whose snap counts steadily increased over the Chiefs’ last four games. Gray is a TE2 against the Buccaneers in Week 9. He has caught 17-of-18 targets this season.

Gray’s usage in the Chiefs offense has been quietly solid of late. He now has ten catches over the team’s past three games. Against the Niners, Gray ran a route on 18 of Patrick Mahomes’ 33 drop backs. He profiles as a sneaky option in deep leagues.

Gray will get $10 million in guaranteed money on his new deal. He’s a three-year vet of the league and has spent his entire career with the Chiefs. A good knower of the system, he’s a sure bet to see decent snaps if Travis Kelce were ever to miss time, and he has a career receiving line of 63-640-4 in 50 career games. Gray is now under contract through 2027.

Third-year pro Gray inched up on his 2022 totals but still finished with an underwhelming receiver slash of 28/305/2. That was somehow good for fifth on the Chiefs in receiving, but Gray never threatened for more than TE2 streamer value in fantasy. Heading into the final year of his rookie contract, the only way for Gray to get on the 2024 radar would probably be a surprise Travis Kelce retirement.

With Travis Kelce sidelined, Gray tied for the team lead in targets, but he didn’t do anything with them. In fact, one of Gray’s missed connections was his most notable, as he made a classic “business decision” to avoid an admittedly crushing hit. Smart for Gray’s health, but not the sort of thing that is going to keep him involved once Kelce returns, perhaps as early as Week 2 against the Jaguars.