Purdue is still reeling from an absolute thrashing at the hands of Notre Dame last week, where they were down 42-0 at the half causing ND HC Marcus Freeman to pull the starters at the beginning of the third quarter.
The Boilermakers now have to travel across the country to Oregon State to face a quasi-Power Four program who just watched ND hang 364 rushing yards on the Boilermakers. OSU will look to keep the pressure on Purdue’s shell-shocked defense that ranks 110th in EPA/play and 106th in plays of 20+ yards allowed. Fortunately for HC Ryan Walters, Oregon State is not a blue-chip laden, well-funded legacy program like Notre Dame.
Oregon State is bouncing back from a disappointing 49-14 loss to their in-state big brother Oregon. They were moving the ball enough to keep pace with the Ducks early-on, with OSU down just 22-14 at half. However, the Beavers’ defense had no answer for OU’s ruthlessly efficient offense that recorded 546 total yards on the day. Oregon State runs at 71% clip on standard downs (10th in FBS) with a 54% rushing success rate. They struggle to stretch the field vertically, ranking 113th in passing explosiveness and 128th in passes of 20+ yards. Defensively OSU got carved up by Oregon but smothered a transitioning San Diego State team 21-0 while holding the Aztecs to just 179 total yards.
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Game Details and How to watch 2024 Purdue at Oregon State live
· Date: Saturday, September 21st, 2024
· Time: 8:30 PM EST
· Location: Reser Stadium
· City: Corvallis, Oregon
· TV/Streaming: The CW Network
Game odds for Purdue at Oregon State - Week 4
The latest odds as of Thursday via BetMGM:
- Moneyline: Oregon State -195, Purdue +165
- Spread: Oregon State -4.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: 50.5 points
*odds courtesy of BetMGM
Oregon State opened -5.5, and is still there depending on the book, but has dipped to -4.5 at BetMGM and most other domestics. It’s a similar story with the game total, as that line opened at 50.5 with a low-water mark of 49.5. This game has been priced right from the get go.
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NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
“I think Oregon State can ride their talented RB tandem and take advantage of a Purdue defense that got bludgeoned repeatedly by Notre Dame last week. I don’t think Purdue can turn around their defensive line’s rush stopping issues overnight, and with the Boilermakers making a 2,000+ mile journey to Corvallis, OR I’m laying the -4.5 points and taking the Beavers.”
From the Trading Desk at BetMGM courtesy of John Ewing: Week 4 Highlights
“USC-Michigan and Tennessee-Oklahoma are going to have the most action on Saturday. The book is going to need both dogs here. Michigan and Oklahoma could determine our whole Saturday.” - Seamus Magee, Trading Manager, BetMGM
Most bet games (tickets)
- Tennessee-Oklahoma
- USC-Michigan
- Illinois-Nebraska
Most bet teams (tickets)
- Tennessee -7
- USC -6
- Illinois +7.5
Most bet teams (handle)
- Tennessee -7
- USC -6
- Illinois +7.5
Quarterback matchup for Purdue at Oregon State
- Purdue: Last year former four-start Texas recruit QB Hudson Card was ushered in as the team’s new signal caller by the new coaching staff, led by OC Graham Harrell and HC Ryan Walters. His 58.6% completion rate last year ranked 76th out of 93 FBS signal callers with 300+ attempts, though he was saddled with a 10% drop rate by his wideouts which was the eight-worst mark in the Power Four. Card earned a respectable 72nd-percentile PFF passing grade last year and is looking to turn the page from his 11-for-24, 124-yard, 1-to-2 ratio showing against Notre Dame last week.
- Oregon State: Idaho transfer QB Gevani McCoy was a 2023 Walter Payton Award Finalist and 2022 Jerry Rice Award winner given to the FCS Freshman of the Year. He won a spirited QB competition over Gabarri Johnson and had thrown only 35 passes over the first two games before unleashing 34 against Oregon last week. McCoy is completing passes at a 67% rate, but his 6.5 yards per attempt ranks 61st out of 96 FBS signal callers with 70+ passes. McCoy has earned a 79th percentile PFF offensive grade and is in a much better position going forward now that Big Ten contender Oregon is in the rear view.
Boilermakers and Beavers player news & recent stats
- Managing turnovers is vital for Purdue’s chances at success, as the Boilermakers are 0-7 straight up when throwing at least one interception since the beginning of the 2023 season.
- Tight End Max Klare is QB Hudson Card’s favorite target, catching 8-of-11 passes or 107 yards and a TD through two games. WR Jahmal Edrine leads the wideouts with 10 targets, five receptions and 77 yards through the air.
- The Oregon State run game has been the most effective unit on the team, with the Jam Griffin/Anthony Hankerson RB-duo pacing OSU to the 20th-best rushing success rate with a strong 3.6 yards after contact average that ranks 16th overall. The offensive line ranks 22nd nationally with a 9% blown run block rate, so the big hogs are doing their jobs up front as well.
- While the OSU Success Rate rests at a very respectable 50% (26th), they are struggling mightily to both hit big plays (129th in IsoPPP/121st in Explosiveness), and defend them (101st in % of 20-yards plays allowed).
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