Time for the weekly Stock Up! Stock Down! report from the boys of Bet the EDGE. This week’s focus was two-fold with a focus on the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year market as well as Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals.
Lets lead off with the surprisingly bad Bengals. Yes, Joe Burrow is obviously playing hurt. The All Pro quarterback is unable to drive through his passes which has prohibited the Cincinnati attack from throwing downfield.
This week, the Bengals (-162) visit the desert to take on the surprisingly competitive Arizona Cardinals (+136).
Bet the Edge is your source for the day in sports betting. Get all of Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick’s insight Tuesday through Saturday at 6AM ET right here or wherever you get your podcasts.
Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper) believes this game will be far more competitive than you would have thought prior to the start of the season.
“I think the offensive line has been a wild bust so far considering the talent and resources that they poured into that unit. So, if you’re up against a well-coached defense, which the Cardinals very much are, I think that you’re going to be a little clunky. I think that the Bengals’ defense can perform much better than we saw against the Titans this last weekend which makes this one a pretty obvious look to the Under for me until Joe Burrow has the complete ability to use his lower body to get power into his throws. I think it’s pretty clear that the market is overpricing these Bengals’ totals, and the market is a little slow on recognizing that the Cardinals are not a tanking, bottom-feeding team.”
His play for the Sunday tilt?
“I think the Cardinals can do just enough in this contest to keep it competitive and I think the Bengals getting above 20 points would be a surprise to me. So, Under 45 is the look I like best.”
Jay Croucher went on to point out just how difficult the Bengals’ remaining schedule is with games against the 49ers, Bills, Browns, and at the Chiefs, Jaguars, and Ravens. Currently sitting at 1-3, making the playoffs will be extremely difficult for Cincinnati and Joe Burrow.
At the other end of the “surprise spectrum” is C.J. Stroud. The 2nd pick in the 2023 Draft has flourished the last few weeks and has the Houston Texans sitting at 2-2 and tied atop the AFC South.
Stroud’s ability to lead the Texans has him sitting atop the Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY) board at DraftKings.
Here are the current odds:
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans +175
Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams +425
Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons +450
Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts +550
De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins +600
Jay Croucher gave us an overview of said market.
“I think the way to approach pricing this market is one, it runs through C.J. Stroud, because he’s the quarterback who’s playing at a pretty high level at the moment. So, if you just get a 50th percentile outcome from Stroud, how often does he win? And to me he wins a significant amount of the time if he just hits his baseline from here. Through four weeks, he is 14th among quarterbacks in EPA per play, 15th in success rate, 15th in PFF Grade, and 22nd in completion percentage over expected. He’s been about the 15th best quarterback in football, and that’s including a Week One clunker against Baltimore where he was terrible. The past three weeks he’s been 5th in EPA per play having no offensive line whatsoever.”
Dinsick agrees that Stroud should be favored at this point, but he is not ready to jump into that market.
I think there are enough really good candidates at the top that this could flip a couple more times before we get to the finish line. Let’s say the Texans don’t come out and do well to start against the Falcons and he’s forced into comeback mode and he throws a couple picks AJ Terrell or Jesse Bates then all of a sudden, I’d be more inclined to get him in the +250 / +300 range after a bad performance knowing that the Texans overall are going to get better as we get to the later part of the season.”
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*all Odds courtesy of DraftKings