Even with various drama over the last year and all of the social media posts, the Stefon Diggs trade still felt like a stunner. The timing, the dead money and that fact that a contending Bills team is now searching for more offensive firepower without an extra 2024 selection heading their way.
Much of the unpredictable nature of the NFL draft is centered around trades.
Sure, we know the Vikings, Broncos and Raiders would love to land a top quarterback. We know the Bills, who let Gabe Davis walk in free agency before trading Diggs, need an impact wide receiver.
RELATED: Connor Rogers’ NFL Draft Big Board
In this draft notebook I’ll go through the not-so-obvious teams looking to trade on draft day. The groundwork for who could make a call to move up, which teams might be willing to answer the phone and the always fluid price estimates to complete these moves. Let’s dive in.
Top Trade-Up Candidates
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings already showed their hand when they acquired Houston’s first-round pick after the Kirk Cousins era ended. They now have the No. 23 and No. 11 overall selections at their disposal to try and trade up for a QB in this draft class, like North Carolina’s Drake Maye, LSU’s Jayden Daniels or Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy.
Per Rich Hill’s trade value chart on DraftTek (which I would recommend using as a baseline), these picks (No. 23 and No. 11) combined are worth 603 points. The value of the No. 3 overall pick (Patriots), which is assumed as the first potential opening to get into the top five, is 514 points. There’s a good chance these picks combined can get Minnesota into a slot somewhere in the top five, even with other teams calling too.
Denver Broncos
Similar to Minnesota, the Broncos’ quarterback depth chart is uninspiring and should be the first clue that their actual starter is in the top five picks of this draft. Unlike Minnesota, they only have the No. 12 pick and can’t offer two first-rounders for this year’s class. That could be a key competitive advantage because the talent in this draft is highly regarded.
Las Vegas Raiders
Head coach Antonio Pierce has been vocal on the needed aggression at the quarterback position. Gardner Minshew seems like a Band-Aid for the franchise. In a perfect world the Raiders move up high enough to land LSU QB Jayden Daniels, a player Pierce has known since high school. That might be impossible to pull off with only on first-round pick at their disposal (No. 13), but the tier of a player like Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. is in the realm of possibilities.
New York Giants
This one is fascinating because whether the smoke around their quarterback interest is real or not, the Giants would be a team others should want to trade with. For instance, Arizona can trade down from No. 4 to No. 6, come away with an extra pick and still land one of elite receivers in Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr. or LSU’s Malik Nabers. The Giants under Brian Daboll seem unlikely to pick this high again in 2025, leaving an interesting scenario for general manager Joe Schoen.
RELATED: Marvin Harrison Jr. vs. Malik Nabers as first WR drafted
Buffalo Bills
The trio of Dalton Kincaid, Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir is far from bad, but the Bills need a threat that can play on the outside and preferably win down the field. Coming all the way up for Harrison Jr., Nabers or even Washington’s Rome Odunze feels hefty. Keep in mind the team picking in the top 10 in this trade-out scenario would be dropping all the way to No. 28. That’s a very different tier of prospect. Now, if the Bills want to jump into the top 20 for LSU WR Brian Thomas Jr., who would be a near perfect fit, that seems more feasible. The Colts at No. 15, the Seahawks at No. 16 or the Rams at No. 19 all seem like potential partners.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles have two second-round picks (No. 50 and No. 53). They could use one of those, combined with their No. 22 overall pick to launch up the draft board into the top 15 and grab a top cornerback. Quinyon Mitchell out of Toledo would be an incredible addition to the Eagles’ defense. Plus, Mitchell’s odds to be the first defensive player drafted are at +350 (per FanDuel), which is excellent value in my opinion.
RELATED: Connor Rogers’ NFL draft CB rankings
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs needing both wide receiver and offensive line help makes it seem unlikely they’d trade their Day 2 picks to move up, but Brett Veach is a very aggressive general manager. If they did decide to be aggressive in Round 1, I could see them trading up into the top 20 of the draft to get a big-bodied receiver like Brian Thomas or Texas WR Adonai Mitchell, or even Georgia OT Amarius Mims.
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals have six selections in the top 100. Just last year we saw them move back and then up in the first round. If they trade out of No. 4, gaining even more capital for this year, maybe they consider moving up from their other first-round pick at No. 27. This would position them to pick twice inside the top 20, where the cut off of blue-chip talent in this class is. I’ve been impressed with GM Monti Offenfort’s creativity, now he needs to add high-end talent to his roster.
Top Trade-Down Candidates
New England Patriots
If a quarterback they love falls into their lap at No. 3, then they have to take him. Yet, that is far from a lock and the price you can charge in this draft to move into that spot can overhaul a bad roster. New England might be able to walk out of this draft with a No. 1 wide receiver and a cornerstone at offensive tackle.
RELATED: Connor Rogers’ NFL draft OL rankings
Arizona Cardinals
The rare “trade up” and “trade down” double candidate, the Cardinals hold a lot of chips here. If three quarterbacks go in the first three picks, teams might start to panic and make a legendary offer to get their No. 4 pick.
Los Angeles Chargers
New general manager Joe Hortiz comes from Baltimore, the land of acquiring as many picks as possible. Jim Harbaugh won a national title last year with a great defense and reliable offensive line. I wouldn’t be shocked if both guys want more capital to fortify those units on the Chargers rather than taking the best wide receiver available at No. 5 overall.
Atlanta Falcons
Signing Kirk Cousins not only solved Atlanta’s biggest problem, but also gave them extreme flexibility in the draft. They can take the top pass rusher of their choosing at No. 8 overall, but that spot will also hold significant trade value. It’s a great landing spot for a team to jump in front of the Bears and Jets for a wide receiver like Rome Odunze.
New York Jets
The Jets don’t have a second-round pick this year due to the Aaron Rodgers trade. It’s no secret GM Joe Douglas would love to land another Day 2 selection if a trade-out opportunity presents itself. There is an obvious relationship with the Eagles (where Douglas previously worked) if they wanted to make a move. However, if the Jets don’t move out of No. 10, a debate between Georgia TE Brock Bowers and an offensive lineman like Oregon State’s Taliese Fuaga or Washington’s Troy Fautanu seems likely.